Bitcoin 8.5k and 4.4k scenarios

28 Mei 2018

Hello traders and fellow gamblers!

So this is the promised compiled chart that has the magical Gann Square, Fib circles (I added one more) and updated Fib fan, as well as Fib retracements and extensions.

Bearish scenario:
Sooner or later we are going to bounce. If we bounce without breaking the giant triangle with thick orange line at its base, bulls have a chance to take the price to the top (thick red line) of the triangle. A possible path is shown by the blue numbers from 0 to 5. There are three 1s out of which 7.8k is the most likely target before retracing back to second stop and continuing upward. If we break below the triangle, I expect a bounce around 6.5k. In this case the bounce will not go further than 3rd stop (8.2kish). Most likely we will resume the downtrend after one of the stop #1s.

There is a case in which BTC can moon that is supported by Wyckoff accumulation schematic 2. See @ProwdClown's latest Wyckoff analysis for more info.

Bearish scenario:
You can follow the black numbers starting from 0 around either 7.6k or 7.8k. Most of the green support zones are the confluence of Fib extensions of the April-May rally and other Fib retracements and historical supports. I have used 2014 crash parallels to guesstimate the bottom. You can read my previous 2014 bull trap fractal analysis for more info and visuals. If the market goes into extreme bear mode, 4412 would be the likely bottom, which is both 1.618 extension of the April-may rally and 0.786 retrace of the rally after bear market ended on August 25 2015 to ATH at 20kish. In Crypto everything is possible so don't get surprised if Bitcoin finds bottom at lower levels.

PS:
Please don't take this chart as a trade advice. I analyze the market everyday and update my views and scenarios.

This chart is a compilation and revision of my previous three charts. It has taken several hours to find the perfect coordinates for the Gann Square, Fib circles, fan, extensions. See the linked charts to get a more clear view of those sets. I am going to use this chart as a reference for at least two months. I will definitely update them as the market develops.

My next learning project is harmonics. I won't be posting magical charts for a while unless I find something interesting.

Please don't forget to like if you find this chart useful. Special thanks to those of you who give me constructive feedback.

/:D

Image version is more clear:

28 Mei 2018

Catatan

Correction: first scenario is bullish.

Now that I brought you here, at least I give you something to read:

coindesk.com/bitcoin-bears-still-in-charge-but-indecision-could-open-doors-for-rally/

29 Mei 2018

Catatan

Most of you have seen this chart before. It has almost reached its target. Play and enjoy :D

29 Mei 2018

Catatan

So the bounce happened sooner rather than later. We bounced off a Gann angle in the support zone. We have a hidden bearish div on 4h TF. If we close near 7.6k, this div will disappear.

29 Mei 2018

Catatan

Most traders don't look at pivots. But as you can see in this chart, weekly and monthly pivot really worked as a pivot and strong resistance in each correction.

I have shown a fractal from earlier drop before. Now I see that this fractal is still playing out. I got some measurements for you for comparison.

If we use this fractal as our base we should end up somewhere in the first red zone (cyan color). But as you can see, there is a clear difference in the wave form and the volume. So it is reasonable to expect higher levels. We have weekly pivot above this red zone which also coincides with 0.618 of the entire bull rally that started in August 2015. So that is definitely an important level to watch. The next resistance after this level starts at 7.8k.

If you want me to post updates, press the like button. Otherwise, I will focus more on my trades and learning projects and spam you less with my updates.

29 Mei 2018

Catatan

On 4h up to 12h TFs, divergences are a mess, we have both bullish div and hidden bearish div. Perhaps they cancel out each other and we need to rely on higher TFs.

On smaller TFs tho, we have a bearish div .
As cryptodisco mentioned in the comment, the purple line that used to be the base of a big wedge has acted as a strong resistance. If this bull flag takes too long to break out, be prepared for a retrace.

29 Mei 2018

Catatan

So it didn't take long and we broke above the purple resistance line. We might test this line as a support and if it holds, next we will reach at least our first target of 7.6k and then 7.7k.

29 Mei 2018

Catatan

Purple line is under a test! If it doesn't hold, here r the next supports

30 Mei 2018

Catatan

Purple line test went good. So far retracements were less than .236 and that's a good sign on the bullish side. Price followed the little curve very closely. We have a bearish div on 1h.

I will consider closing longs and opening shorts in the next wave whether we reach 7.6k or not. If we go down from here, you can find the updated support areas on the chart below.

30 Mei 2018

Catatan

So we didn't reach 7.6k and we already retraced to .618 of this mini rally. I closed my longs and I opened short as I said I would consider it even if we don't reach 7.6k on that last wave up. I am not sure of the market direction at this moment. So I closed half of my shorts to be on the safe side. As long as we are above .618, bulls have a chance to create at least one more leg up.

Here is Wyckoff schematic that's a bit alarming.

d.stockcharts.com/school/data/media/chart_school/market_analysis/wyckoff1/wy-01-accumdist.png

This schematic is also confirmed by accum/dist indicator (see the blue horiz line). Everything that was accumulated is already distributed by the time that we retraced to .618. So perhaps the market is left to the little fish for a while. 0.618 retrace usually creates an automatic reaction. This reaction would be a good indicator of market sentiment.

d.stockcharts.com/school/data/media/chart_school/market_analysis/wyckoff1/wy-01-accumdist.png

30 Mei 2018

Catatan

31 Mei 2018

Catatan

I have some eye injury and won't be posting frequent updates for a while.

Bulls are having a hard time breaking resistances. We finally hit the first red zone. Now we have both bearish and bullish scenarios on the table. A couple of TAs have shown a rising wedge which is usually a bearish pattern and likely will break downward. It's target is previous swing low around 705x, so basically back to square (bule) #0. If we get there, bullish scenario would reset. I have not looked at the chart in details but I still don't see bullish momentum picking up. Will be adding to my shorts at 7.7k and the next red zone if we ever get there. I am using linearly increasing scaled orders to minimize risk. Every time I get a short order filled, I close the previous short order in the pullback. This allows me to get the best short entry. My break even is already near 8k and it is going up at each cycle. I will keep doing this until I see some bullish momentum. If you want to use the same strategy, don't run after the price, be patient and wait until it comes to your targets. Use Fib as much as u can, each impulse wave will retrace at least to .236 and usually to .382 if not more. Also BolingerBand with Std 3 in 5 min would be very helpful.

Safe trading :)
/:D

1 Jun 2018

Catatan

I hope you could successfully trade the recent dip the way I suggested. It was more than .618 retrace of the previous impulse wave. I am sorry for not posting the updated chart in my previous update. Wedge bottom was an obvious support. I am not so optimistic about going above 7.6k because we have at least 2 important resistances forming inside a rising wedge. One is the downtrend resistance and one is the flat 7.6k resistance. If we break these two, then the wedge top will act as the next resistance. So if you are looking for a short entry, don't get your hopes very high.

Monthly candle just closed at 7485. Another level to watch. New monthly pivot is @8172, support 1 @6353, resistance 1 @9304. 8172's nearby was also Point of Control for couple of recent months as I wrote in my previous updates.

PS: still haven't studied the chart so pls look at the indicators and divergences for your trades.



Thank you coingogo, fastjumpers, and @cryptogast33 for your kind wishes <3

1 Jun 2018

Catatan

Bulls have taken the first step for saving this sinking ship. They broke the downtrend resistance (red line) and closed a 4h candle above it. 7.6k is still untouched. Four hourly candles closed $.2 below it. It shows that someone is deliberately suppressing the rise. (When I put my tinfoil hat on, June 6th comes to my mind). 7.6k is a symbolic level because it is the .618 retrace of 0 to ATH. If we pullback and the blue #2 support zone holds, I would give more chance to the bullish scenario than before (would be 50 50). Bulls are now trying to avoid the 4th touch of the wedge support because that would likely break it. If they succeed, they will make another try to break 7.6k. Breaking this level would be very encouraging and give them some momentum to at least touch the wedge resistance.

1 Jun 2018

Catatan

4th touch was indeed a break. Previous 4h candle breakout got rejected clearly in this candle.

2 Jun 2018

Catatan

Just a quick heads up. We r on one of the minor Fib time lines (vertical lines). There might be some action today hopefully. I can't tell u which directions. Still working on my foretelling skills :D

3 Jun 2018

Catatan

Bearish signs:
- Volume decreasing inside a rising wedge
- hidden bearish divergence on 12h
- 7.8k which is .618 retrace of Apr-May rally is acting as a resistance
- 20d EMA resistance
- Don't know harmonics yet, but I have seen two different bearish harmonics from others

bullish signs that I care about:
- The rising wedge has 5 touches to the top and pierced it as well. Only 2 touches to the bottom
- Down trend channel is broken

I am 70/30 bearish/bullish short term. If 7.8k doesn't break in the next attempt, I will be even more bearish.

If we retrace, look for Fib retracements for support.

4 Jun 2018

Catatan

- Alts going up, BTC might follow, don't know how much up
- Weekly just closed. We got the weekly pivot at 7512. If we retrace and it holds, big chance we go up retest 7.8k, and next red zones
- If we break 7.8k, bullish momentum likely to increase.

4 Jun 2018

Catatan

7.8k did not break and we dropped. Now the wedge support is holding. We had similar situation on Monday two weeks ago. We started the week above weekly inside a rising wedge, then weekly pivot broke down and we had a lovely fight below the weekly pivot, bears won the fight, and BTC dumped hard. This is what happened then. History does not always repeat. But if it does, it would be so laughable.

Most important support and resistances for immediate term
- 7.8k
- wedge resistance
- wedge support
- weekly pivot at 7512

These 4 can determine what happens this week.

4 Jun 2018

Catatan

7 Jun 2018

Catatan

Just wanted to give you an update on the 2 scenarios here. The bullish scenario can play more or less like shown on the chart.

The bearish scenario need to change. If we head down, we will get another bounce on the triangle base. After the bounce, we will head back down and break the triangle. We will prolly get bounces at 6.5kish and 6kish but they will likely fail. So the last bullish frontier is the triangle base not a triple bottom IMHO.

I have not looked at the chart in detail as I am not trading. But I have spotted a strong hidden bearish divergence on 12h and regular bearish divergences on smaller TFs. But there are bullish signals as well, like higher low and broken down trend channel and retail FOMO as usual.

PS: As to my progress, I am still in the introduction chapter :D

10 Jun 2018

Catatan

Bullish scenario is off the table. Bear scenario seem to be working as in original post.

11 Jun 2018

Catatan

We may not see black #2. So please keep a tight SL. BTC looks too weak. Recent bart's momentum was too strong.

12 Jun 2018

Catatan

... we got close to black #2 target but couldn't reach it as I guessed in my previous update. At least 4 stops worked so far, better than my second guesses. Market is a mess now and I really don't know where it is heading now. It may or may not follow the original chart. Wish you safe trading :)