Am I Hallucinating? IH&S or H&S?

3 Agu 2018

Time to be ready for anything!
Patterns and respective target boxes should be pretty self explanatory on the chart.
Aside from those- light blue line is downtrend line, black line is mean line (as it has been for most of this year on my charts) purple line is an alternative uptrend mean line based on two price points from a year ago. I'm just monitoring that one. Green lines are historical S/R.
The floating target box between the other two you can just ignore....if you want to. it's for a third IH&S pattern I was following for a while and still haven't completely given up on.
Measure twice, cut once.
May all of life's treasures be yours.

5 Agu 2018

Catatan

Continuation of a deeper right shoulder. I had an orders at 6903 and 6883 which filled, and I'm patiently waiting for buyers to show up here. I had orders at this level because it's been a major support zone since the rally to ATH and in every bearish move since then. It's also the price where we shot up through the downtrend line (teal line on this chart) without ever retesting it as support. Geometry is so much fun :)

7 Agu 2018

Catatan

I'm still waiting for buyers, and still holding what I bought as mentioned in the previous update. I'm seeing a bull flag on the hourly, with a target at 7.3. Also on hourly: hidden bullish divergence on RSI. That could be an orchestrated long shakeout, but it could also mean we will see one more lower low before more upside, and the rest of my ladder down to 6800 will be filled. As I'm sure you've already decided on your own: a daily close below 6.8 would be bad news for bulls.

7 Agu 2018

Catatan

Shoot. Meant hidden BEARISH divergence on hourly...which should make the rest of that sentence more reasonable! Sorry for confusion and inability to edit typos.

9 Agu 2018

Catatan

In the end, we met the H&S target after a teeny tiny right shoulder so small I thought it invalidated the pattern. My accounts were not prepared to capitalize on this quick move (look how far in the future my target box was!) so even though the analysis was there, I didn't have orders set up at 6200 and was not available to be active in this market the last couple of days. I sold most of what I bought around 6800 at the first dead cat bounce to 6515 and now I'm trying to get back to my charts and figure out what's next.

Re-calibrating my risk management and strategy now after this loss. If I had set up my accounts to reflect my analysis instead of what I "thought" would happen, timeline-wise and other-wise, I would be in profit now. Good analysis does not always lead to good trades.