2024-06-12 - a daily price action after hour update - bitcoin
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Interesting day. I did almost no updates on the posted chart. The pink breakout line was king again and I shorted it a second time for another 3000 points. I don’t care if the triangle is broken to the upside, when the market turns around again, it was a trap and the pattern lives on in my world. This market is not behaving as bullish as almost everyone on twitter tells you. Today nasdaq had an almost 2% day while Bitcoin stayed below 70000.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: small range 66600 - 70000 / big range 56000 - 74000
bull case: Bulls tried to break to the upside but the breakout price around 70000 proofed strong resistance again. I don’t know how many times they will try again but I think the number is very low. Triangle will break tomorrow. Bulls need 70000 and above, otherwise it’s lights out.
Invalidation is below 66000.
bear case: My target for the bears, if they break 66000 is 65000. There I will decide how strong the move is and if we can get to 64000 fast. If they fail to close tomorrow below the daily ema at 68600, my bearish wave series is probably wrong and we more more sideways until we get a bigger impulse.
Invalidation is above 70000.
short term: Neutral here inside the triangle. —unchanged
medium-long term: down to 40000 (could take 3-6 months). Could also drop to 20000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —unchanged
current swing trade: None.
trade of the day: Short the breakout price around 70000, was good for 3000 points.
comment: Interesting day. I did almost no updates on the posted chart. The pink breakout line was king again and I shorted it a second time for another 3000 points. I don’t care if the triangle is broken to the upside, when the market turns around again, it was a trap and the pattern lives on in my world. This market is not behaving as bullish as almost everyone on twitter tells you. Today nasdaq had an almost 2% day while Bitcoin stayed below 70000.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: small range 66600 - 70000 / big range 56000 - 74000
bull case: Bulls tried to break to the upside but the breakout price around 70000 proofed strong resistance again. I don’t know how many times they will try again but I think the number is very low. Triangle will break tomorrow. Bulls need 70000 and above, otherwise it’s lights out.
Invalidation is below 66000.
bear case: My target for the bears, if they break 66000 is 65000. There I will decide how strong the move is and if we can get to 64000 fast. If they fail to close tomorrow below the daily ema at 68600, my bearish wave series is probably wrong and we more more sideways until we get a bigger impulse.
Invalidation is above 70000.
short term: Neutral here inside the triangle. —unchanged
medium-long term: down to 40000 (could take 3-6 months). Could also drop to 20000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —unchanged
current swing trade: None.
trade of the day: Short the breakout price around 70000, was good for 3000 points.
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