BTCUSD Perspective And Levels: More To This Retrace?

13 Agu 2017

BTCUSD Update: New all time highs, which should not be a surprise. The question is: Is the current retrace a minor one? Or does it have room to test lower supports? Elliott Wave provides some interesting perspective to help answer these questions.

First I want to mention ETH for a moment. I was debating whether I should write up another ETH report, or BTC, or even ETHBTC which one trader suggested (I took a look at it). I chose BTCUSD not because it is wowing the media and the markets, but because I want to point out there is a relative strength relationship compared to ETH. If this was inverse as some suggest (investors selling BTC and buying ETH with their profits) then ETH should be testing resistance, not supports while BTC retraces. I have been writing about ETH weakness concerns while BTC has been pushing highs for days now.

Let's talk about BTC which is the leader, and the base currency of this market in my opinion. 4190 is the new all time high, which I am sure is being spread everywhere by the mainstream and non main stream media like wild fire (I haven't looked at any articles yet, but I can only imagine). I'm sure they will be predicting BTC 5k is just around the corner! Please do not get sucked into this hype.

Observing this market from the Elliott Wave perspective, we have been in a subdegree Wave 3 of a broader 5. Within this subdegree 3, 5 minor waves can be counted which signals completion. To add to the argument, I measured the subdegree Wave 1 to the bottom of 2 with the extension tool, (it is not on the chart for simplicity sake) and there is a 1.618 extension around the 4112 area. This is very significant because this is a common Wave 3 completion point relative to the degree being measured. According to the same measurement, the next completion point is around 5164. A push up to the high 4000s or the low 5000s would be a proportional target for a large degree Wave 5 to complete.I would not get overly excited until the next corrective wave is in place and that is what I want to highlight in this evaluation.

To answer the question: Is this pullback minor? Or is there more too it. Based on the wave count, this is most likely the beginning of a Wave 4 of 5 that can retest levels as low as 3500 before going higher. To help confirm this scenario, the 3820 support (.382 of current bull swing) must be taken out followed by other bearish structure like a failed high. If 3820 is not broken, then Wave 3 of 5 is still unfolding and this market is more likely to retest the high.

In summary, this market is clearly strong and has all the structure to reasonably expect higher prices. That can change quickly and there are levels in place that would signal a broader retracement is in play. I am keeping a close eye on 3820 because a break below opens the door to the possibility of retesting the 3530 support area which would be a very attractive buy price in terms of structure. And I can use this information to help time my entry into other markets like ETH.

Comments and questions welcome.