Bitcoin waiting game
Hello dear readers, welcome to my analysis of Bitcoin.
Let me start from top down:
- The upcoming weekly close is really important for the bulls. A close above $11500 would signfy strength for the bulls while a close below would mean further downward movement.
- The Daily is not giving us much information at the moment. There is a huge amount of bearish momentum built up on daily, but even the sheer amount of bearish momentum didn't lead to a break of $11000. In my opinion this is bullish as long as the daily manages to hold these levels.
- 4H is showing a descending broadening wedge with bullish divergence formed on the recent test of $11100. This means that there is a good probability BTC will test $11700 over the weekend.
Bullish scenario
- BTC tests $11700 over the weekend and comes to retest $11400 - $11500 (ranged for the wicks) on Sunday/Monday morning. If the $11500 then manages to hold this would be our buy signal, or a more risky play would be to long $11400 with a stop loss below $11200. This scenario would also mean that weekly would stay bullish and the daily would give a bullish signal in terms of hidden bullish divergence so my target would be a mid term hold to
13K
Bearish scenario
- the bullish divergence fails and bitcoin goes down to test $11100 again with a higher probability of a breakdown. The next support would be at $10800 and on Monday BTC would then retest $11400 before continuing it's move down
In my opinion I think the bullish scenario is more likely than the bearish one, but that doesn't mean I will long right now. Right now we're basically waiting for a signal from Weekly close and maybe some kind of signal from daily.
Hope you liked my idea and if you have any constructive criticism please leave it down below.
Let me start from top down:
- The upcoming weekly close is really important for the bulls. A close above $11500 would signfy strength for the bulls while a close below would mean further downward movement.
- The Daily is not giving us much information at the moment. There is a huge amount of bearish momentum built up on daily, but even the sheer amount of bearish momentum didn't lead to a break of $11000. In my opinion this is bullish as long as the daily manages to hold these levels.
- 4H is showing a descending broadening wedge with bullish divergence formed on the recent test of $11100. This means that there is a good probability BTC will test $11700 over the weekend.
Bullish scenario
- BTC tests $11700 over the weekend and comes to retest $11400 - $11500 (ranged for the wicks) on Sunday/Monday morning. If the $11500 then manages to hold this would be our buy signal, or a more risky play would be to long $11400 with a stop loss below $11200. This scenario would also mean that weekly would stay bullish and the daily would give a bullish signal in terms of hidden bullish divergence so my target would be a mid term hold to
13KBearish scenario
- the bullish divergence fails and bitcoin goes down to test $11100 again with a higher probability of a breakdown. The next support would be at $10800 and on Monday BTC would then retest $11400 before continuing it's move down
In my opinion I think the bullish scenario is more likely than the bearish one, but that doesn't mean I will long right now. Right now we're basically waiting for a signal from Weekly close and maybe some kind of signal from daily.
Hope you liked my idea and if you have any constructive criticism please leave it down below.
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