BITCOIN has yet to prove itself.

26 Jun 2018

BLX











Lack of follow through, overly aggressive longs, plenty of shorts in FIAT. Sentiment not yet at an extreme. Could we have bottomed here? Certainly possible. I have seen signs of accumulation in the last few weeks by large players. Huge bid walls at 6K and below were actually filled and not pulled. That does not mean we can't go lower.

Too many people are thinking this is the bottom. https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/ The lowest level achieved on this is 15. Could be low enough for a bottom, but the last two bottoms we saw reading of 8 and 11. We are at 17 now and were at 37 just a few days ago. A lot of people missed the last two bottoms and are convince this is also the bottom. Margin longs spike hard, everytime we have a move of more than 1% up. Margin shorts have plummeted, resulting in around 55% long/short ratio. Much higher than was found at previous bottoms. Yes we did briefly get 50%, but last the last two bottoms, we had much more extreme readings, and for longer.

I posted this in BTCTC Discord recently. When the upmove happened I initially was thinking maybe we could be reversing. However, when the follow through never came, longs piled in, shorts mass closed, a lot of high tails, etc. I still am leaning this direction. Here it is:

Well, clearly below the last major horizontal support. Nothing but clear air below here. From a TA perspective, not much to like here IMO. Filling this VP gap seems pretty likely. Some will say, but why, sentiment is poor shouldn't we bounce? Yea that can happen. But the path of least resistance is down, for now. Best case we quickly run to 4.5K, wash out all the holders that bought late and didn't take any profits, shorts/longs get really out of whack, and we get a huge bounce, which could in all likelihood mark the end of the bear. Until then, I see nothing to be excited about. Personal opinion. There are just most likely a lot of cold wallets getting fired up and dumped on the market at the moment. Longs still aggressively trying to time the bottom. Shorts are the ones who are the main ones causing the bounces, that and the big bid walls. Every time we get a bounce we drop a bunch of shorts. The vast majority of shorts have stops very high, so starting a short squeeze is very unlikely.

I do still think we are seeing some accumulation by large players. If we were not, the price would just capitulate down to 3-4K in a day. So as they say, it is always darkest before the dawn. I am not in hurry to enter anything, especially alts. Going to make this market prove itself to me. If that means I buy 20% off the lows, I am perfectly fine with that.

All this being said, I think we could see the ultimate bottom for this bear market within a few days/weeks. A lot of blood can be shed in that amount of time, so that is why I am in capital preservation mode.

Maybe my bearish comments mark the end of the bear. If so, you are welcome. Keep your heads up everyone, if you have survived this far, you will be in great shape if we get a new bull market at some point.