Recently, I got stopped out of a 10,500 trade at around 10K.
- Had what seemed like a pretty convincing case for a new bull trend to 16K.
There was a lot of confluence when I took the trade:
- Figured I'd caught myself a pretty nice swing trade to 13k, 16K and eventually 20K. I felt like a pro :)
- For a while, everything looked great.
- Trade moved up to 13K channel top, and by this point, I was about 60% up on this trade.
- However, over next few days, failed to close above this channel top
- Figured it was OK.
- There was so much High-Time-Frame (HTF) Support below me, it would take a lot to break it all and get back to my entry price (10,300) let alone my SL (9.9K).
- Reasoning was -- we cool-off after 7 straight green daily candles, then flip upper channel resistance into support for a move to 13k.
- All looked great for a few days.
- Had a move down to 11,300 - which caught 10DMA as support.
- Over the next few days, watched as priced kept coming down -- remaining pretty confident that there was so much HTF support, it would be unlikely to break.
- Each of these got broken, one after the other.
- Nevertheless, remained in my trade. Sticking to my plan. My SL was nowhere close, and the last line of defence (10K) was holding pretty well.
- All Oscillators had cooled off, and I figured, great, buyers will swarm in here to buy BTC pull-back at a great bargain.
- Next morning, woke up to a SL Sell @ 9980.
SO what did I learn?
- CNBC & Goldman contrarian!!! Elevate these to the top-most level. - At around this downturn, CNBC where putting out calls for 13K and even 16K. There was also a Goldman tweet. If it's in the public domain, the masses as being programmed to do the opposite of what whales want. I should have sold and shorted the minute I saw this contrarian.
- Sell daily resistances, and buy back on convincing close above support. Probably a good strategy. Never tried it out before. Always concern with wearing myself out with over-trading (given day gig).
- Perhaps with exception of extremely high time frame support that show consistent resilience (Weekly 20MA, 200MA etc), all other support are up for grabs.
- There was no Pump-o-matic. An order book pattern that stacks 1,000 BTC orders, about 1,000 apart from each other to keep and pump the price up.
In the end, CNBC / Goldman Contrarian & Pump-o-matic where the biggest lessons/reminders. This now holds weight pretty high in my trade-weighting system.
What next
- After that move, 8.5K CME gap likely to close
- Great confluence at 8.5K with Weekly-MA20, 50fib (9-13K move)
- Move from 11K to 9K looking like a Wave 2 of 5 drives Elliott Wave
- Order-book agreeing - with quit a few orders stacked at at 8.5 levels
- Looks like a pretty good place to try another swing long. Failure to which 7.1K would be next.
- Profitability is directly proportional to patience. Wait for the trade to come to you.
- Had what seemed like a pretty convincing case for a new bull trend to 16K.
There was a lot of confluence when I took the trade:
- 9K double bottom.
- What looked like the end of an ABC correction (albeit not a 1.618 end)
- Bottom on RSI and Wavetrend on the Daily, 4H and 1H
- Close above 10DMA
- Close above 20DMA
- Close above 10K S/R
- Bounce off (around) .38 Fib (9-13K move)
- Adam and Eve Bottom
- NVT Cool-off
- 3D Golden Cross
- Daily MACD Cross
- Positive Funding Rate
- Google Trends Contrarian (No Interest in BTC)
- Figured I'd caught myself a pretty nice swing trade to 13k, 16K and eventually 20K. I felt like a pro :)
- For a while, everything looked great.
- Trade moved up to 13K channel top, and by this point, I was about 60% up on this trade.
- However, over next few days, failed to close above this channel top
- Figured it was OK.
- There was so much High-Time-Frame (HTF) Support below me, it would take a lot to break it all and get back to my entry price (10,300) let alone my SL (9.9K).
- Reasoning was -- we cool-off after 7 straight green daily candles, then flip upper channel resistance into support for a move to 13k.
- All looked great for a few days.
- Had a move down to 11,300 - which caught 10DMA as support.
- Over the next few days, watched as priced kept coming down -- remaining pretty confident that there was so much HTF support, it would be unlikely to break.
- Each of these got broken, one after the other.
- Nevertheless, remained in my trade. Sticking to my plan. My SL was nowhere close, and the last line of defence (10K) was holding pretty well.
- All Oscillators had cooled off, and I figured, great, buyers will swarm in here to buy BTC pull-back at a great bargain.
- Next morning, woke up to a SL Sell @ 9980.
SO what did I learn?
- CNBC & Goldman contrarian!!! Elevate these to the top-most level. - At around this downturn, CNBC where putting out calls for 13K and even 16K. There was also a Goldman tweet. If it's in the public domain, the masses as being programmed to do the opposite of what whales want. I should have sold and shorted the minute I saw this contrarian.
- Sell daily resistances, and buy back on convincing close above support. Probably a good strategy. Never tried it out before. Always concern with wearing myself out with over-trading (given day gig).
- Perhaps with exception of extremely high time frame support that show consistent resilience (Weekly 20MA, 200MA etc), all other support are up for grabs.
- There was no Pump-o-matic. An order book pattern that stacks 1,000 BTC orders, about 1,000 apart from each other to keep and pump the price up.
In the end, CNBC / Goldman Contrarian & Pump-o-matic where the biggest lessons/reminders. This now holds weight pretty high in my trade-weighting system.
What next
- After that move, 8.5K CME gap likely to close
- Great confluence at 8.5K with Weekly-MA20, 50fib (9-13K move)
- Move from 11K to 9K looking like a Wave 2 of 5 drives Elliott Wave
- Order-book agreeing - with quit a few orders stacked at at 8.5 levels
- Looks like a pretty good place to try another swing long. Failure to which 7.1K would be next.
- Profitability is directly proportional to patience. Wait for the trade to come to you.
