BTCUSD 1D chart (6/4/2019)
Good morning, traders. Yesterday's drop has, again, scared retail into immediate bearishness. Remember, emotions will most often lose you money in the market. So should you be worried? I mentioned yesterday that "A breakdown below the $7900 demand zone should indicate that price will, instead, continue correcting toward the $6000 level." Just so we are clear, when I say a breakdown I mean a larger TF candle close below the level mentioned. In this case, I would be looking for a daily close below $7900. At this time, the daily candle is looking quite bullish as it is printing a hammer with a long lower wick just above the daily pivot/EQ of the recent demand zone. Additionally, we see the 21 EMA and higher volume node providing support to the candle body. If the daily closes like this or better, I see little reason to believe that price won't head up once more. Again, the EW count is tricky as there are multiple ways to view it, but taking everything else into consideration, it seems unfinished, hence my labels as they currently sit. The grey zones are supply and demand while the red and green horizontal lines are support levels.
It still bothers me, if this count is correct, that wave 4 is so significantly asymmetrical to wave 2 in regards to the wave's length of time to develop. However, the shorter TF wave count seems to be working out so far with the recent drop finding support between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of what may potentially be the first subwave of the next wave set up. I have also outlined what I was referring to yesterday when I said that the current price action may be following the pattern we saw as price pushed above the 6K level. As we can see, the last time price dipped below the 21 EMA it was near the end of that lower green box with price ultimately finding support on the EMA before pushing up. RSI and Stoch RSI are very similar as well. Finally, that prior drop through the EMA occured at the outer edge of the pitchfork and this one is happening at the median of the pitchfork. In either case, it is an area of pirchfork significance.
As I continue to warn traders, none of this guarantees upward momentum from here. It does, however, provide a strong opposing narrative to the kneejerk emotional bearishness that springs up across social media immediately following any movement down. If price loses pivot support, I will be watching for a bounce off the red line, but really expecting price to target the next HVN at $6400-$6600 with a possible wick near the S1 pivot at $6175. Further fallling will have me watching the $5300 level for support. Don't forget, the $8000 level is the monthly pivot so all price really has been doing between $7600 and $9100 is consolidating around that pivot. In that case, maybe the EW count is similar to what I have and this sideways consolidation for almost 3 weeks is wave 4 which would then be much more symmetrical to wave 2. Until we get definitiveness of movement (i.e. movement above the swing high around $9100 or below the swing low around $6600 on this Coinbase chart) nobody knows for sure what is going on and the best we can do is prepare either way while looking for clues as price moves.
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
It still bothers me, if this count is correct, that wave 4 is so significantly asymmetrical to wave 2 in regards to the wave's length of time to develop. However, the shorter TF wave count seems to be working out so far with the recent drop finding support between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of what may potentially be the first subwave of the next wave set up. I have also outlined what I was referring to yesterday when I said that the current price action may be following the pattern we saw as price pushed above the 6K level. As we can see, the last time price dipped below the 21 EMA it was near the end of that lower green box with price ultimately finding support on the EMA before pushing up. RSI and Stoch RSI are very similar as well. Finally, that prior drop through the EMA occured at the outer edge of the pitchfork and this one is happening at the median of the pitchfork. In either case, it is an area of pirchfork significance.
As I continue to warn traders, none of this guarantees upward momentum from here. It does, however, provide a strong opposing narrative to the kneejerk emotional bearishness that springs up across social media immediately following any movement down. If price loses pivot support, I will be watching for a bounce off the red line, but really expecting price to target the next HVN at $6400-$6600 with a possible wick near the S1 pivot at $6175. Further fallling will have me watching the $5300 level for support. Don't forget, the $8000 level is the monthly pivot so all price really has been doing between $7600 and $9100 is consolidating around that pivot. In that case, maybe the EW count is similar to what I have and this sideways consolidation for almost 3 weeks is wave 4 which would then be much more symmetrical to wave 2. Until we get definitiveness of movement (i.e. movement above the swing high around $9100 or below the swing low around $6600 on this Coinbase chart) nobody knows for sure what is going on and the best we can do is prepare either way while looking for clues as price moves.
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
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