Waiting On A Long Signal...
Diupdate
Many people are excited for the Bitcoin bull move to continue. Looking at the last 6 days of action, short was the way to be. Of course, there wasn't a whole lot of meat on that bone as we're just chopping around in a descending wedge.
This idea is pretty self-explanatory. We are in a descending wedge. The bears have sold this thing down about as far as they can. (As you know this is a wedge inside of a larger timeframe wedge). A break of the purple line is the signal that we could be ready to move substantially back to the upside. But price has to break over and confirm that level for me to get long. You can try to be the early bird and catch the worm but until we get over that purple line at $8,660, your stop has to be pretty far away. Once we break over the purple line, your stop can go safely below the pivot low between $8,540 & $8,440. If you enter here your stop would be at $8,100.
The reason I see for patience here is that you generally see 3 clear dives down in a descending wedge and right now, there's an argument for 3 drives down that are in, but not 3 clear drives down. So, I'd let the bears tire out the rest of the way, get back over the $8,660 level. Ideally, we'd like a strong 4h close over that level and then we can start looking to get long. Don't buy a downtrend. Look for some reversal confirmation and aim at taking a bite out of the meat of the move
Once I'm long, my target is $11,500. Let's see how it plays.
This idea is pretty self-explanatory. We are in a descending wedge. The bears have sold this thing down about as far as they can. (As you know this is a wedge inside of a larger timeframe wedge). A break of the purple line is the signal that we could be ready to move substantially back to the upside. But price has to break over and confirm that level for me to get long. You can try to be the early bird and catch the worm but until we get over that purple line at $8,660, your stop has to be pretty far away. Once we break over the purple line, your stop can go safely below the pivot low between $8,540 & $8,440. If you enter here your stop would be at $8,100.
The reason I see for patience here is that you generally see 3 clear dives down in a descending wedge and right now, there's an argument for 3 drives down that are in, but not 3 clear drives down. So, I'd let the bears tire out the rest of the way, get back over the $8,660 level. Ideally, we'd like a strong 4h close over that level and then we can start looking to get long. Don't buy a downtrend. Look for some reversal confirmation and aim at taking a bite out of the meat of the move
Once I'm long, my target is $11,500. Let's see how it plays.
Catatan
Patience pays... BTC is getting totally rejected off that level. It may need to find a lower target to get some of this algos over to the buy side. The .618 of the giant 30%+ candle is at $8,461. "Waitin' on the world to change." I didn't mention the timeframe of this idea... My estimation is it could take *up to* a week or two to hit the $11,500. If it doesn't just take off impulsively the close of the monthly candle will tell me how intersted I am in staying in the trade. But, that's of course after we get a trade. still waiting for the set up to trigger.
Catatan
This turned out to be a great example of why a close above and retest of the horizontal line is so critical. Total false breakout:Catatan
Being that there was no follow-through and we're still waiting on the trendline and we are still waiting, we can defer to the higher timeframe wedge, whose trendline seems to be more dominant than the 1h. $8,660 is still the level.Catatan
Excuse that mess of words above. lol. What I meant to say:Being that there was no follow-through on the 1h trendline breakout and we're still waiting on the horizontal s/r line (a trend line drawing) for a break and retest, we can defer to the higher timeframe wedge.
Order dibatalkan
I guess the lesson here is... never long without a good signal. A lot of people got rekt here. 60m in liquidations on Bitmex. I wasn't one of them. It's not a long yet. Let's close this out as canceled. I'll put up something similar as a new idea when that time comes. Congrats to those who shorted the failure to break that level. that was the trade to take =)
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