Macro Volume Breakout Signs
Bitcoin looks like it's gearing up for the final parabolic move of this elongated bull market. Some things to note:
The volume has been going down in general since the bull market top in December 2017 (vertical blue line on the left).
The volume has been following an interesting pattern where we see two downturns of volume with the second one being less pronounced while still pushing the price down further. This is followed by one uptake in volume with a clear increase in price. Let's call this the RRGv pattern for simplicity (Red-Red-Green volume), illustrated by the blue and yellow lines on the volume clusters.
It looks like the beginning of a G-phase of the RRGv pattern but with two interesting peculiarities. First, the latest R volume wave cluster (last yellow line on the volume) did not bring the price down further and it has been quite drawn out and particularly devoid of volume amount compared to the rest. Second, the first R volume wave of the latest RRGv was particularly short in comparison to the other ones since December 2017. This seems bullish to me as it supports the continuation of a general uptrend.
The total crypto market cap appears to be in a rising channel since 2021and looks quite bottomed out. If we were to follow a similar trajectory, we can safely expect the market to reach at least $4 trillion by the end of this leg up.
For those that like to complement with the open-source Market Cipher B as I do, there is a second green dot on the weekly timeframe that’s waiting to be confirmed in a few days and one that’s close to being formed on the monthly chart. Both W and M timeframes also have a low stochastic RSI with decent looking money flow waves.
So, is the interest in crypto dying down and the volume will just disappear or are we gearing up for one last pump before a more prolonged or pronounced bear market? Unless something catastrophic like nuclear war were to break out, the latter seems much more likely. Let these points add to the growing list of reasons to be bullish on Bitcoin and crypto in general, from the supply continuing to decrease in exchanges, whales and institutions loading up their already fat wallets while taking the coins of scared or overleveraged retail hands, global interest and adoption growing exponentially, to Bitcoin even coming up from the recent Russian invasion of Ukraine roaring.
Also, if we're putting our speculation hats on (NFA, of course), once news like a Spot BTC ETF getting approved, another country legally recognizing Bitcoin, or a combination of positive sentiment news like these hit the media we're likely to see the start of impressive price action with volume that has not been since in years. I'm excited for what's to come in 2022. Although my plays are more focused on DeFi than Bitcoin, we always must listen to the king of the market!
The volume has been going down in general since the bull market top in December 2017 (vertical blue line on the left).
The volume has been following an interesting pattern where we see two downturns of volume with the second one being less pronounced while still pushing the price down further. This is followed by one uptake in volume with a clear increase in price. Let's call this the RRGv pattern for simplicity (Red-Red-Green volume), illustrated by the blue and yellow lines on the volume clusters.
It looks like the beginning of a G-phase of the RRGv pattern but with two interesting peculiarities. First, the latest R volume wave cluster (last yellow line on the volume) did not bring the price down further and it has been quite drawn out and particularly devoid of volume amount compared to the rest. Second, the first R volume wave of the latest RRGv was particularly short in comparison to the other ones since December 2017. This seems bullish to me as it supports the continuation of a general uptrend.
The total crypto market cap appears to be in a rising channel since 2021and looks quite bottomed out. If we were to follow a similar trajectory, we can safely expect the market to reach at least $4 trillion by the end of this leg up.
For those that like to complement with the open-source Market Cipher B as I do, there is a second green dot on the weekly timeframe that’s waiting to be confirmed in a few days and one that’s close to being formed on the monthly chart. Both W and M timeframes also have a low stochastic RSI with decent looking money flow waves.
So, is the interest in crypto dying down and the volume will just disappear or are we gearing up for one last pump before a more prolonged or pronounced bear market? Unless something catastrophic like nuclear war were to break out, the latter seems much more likely. Let these points add to the growing list of reasons to be bullish on Bitcoin and crypto in general, from the supply continuing to decrease in exchanges, whales and institutions loading up their already fat wallets while taking the coins of scared or overleveraged retail hands, global interest and adoption growing exponentially, to Bitcoin even coming up from the recent Russian invasion of Ukraine roaring.
Also, if we're putting our speculation hats on (NFA, of course), once news like a Spot BTC ETF getting approved, another country legally recognizing Bitcoin, or a combination of positive sentiment news like these hit the media we're likely to see the start of impressive price action with volume that has not been since in years. I'm excited for what's to come in 2022. Although my plays are more focused on DeFi than Bitcoin, we always must listen to the king of the market!
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