BTC/USD 1H/1D charts (12/11/2018)
Good morning, traders. Bitcoin never could get going yesterday and isn't looking too strong at all today. As a matter of fact, we are currently seeing a bit of a sell-off as I type this. However, we should zoom out to the 4H chart and note that volume has continued to drop on the reactions and rise on the rallies since November 14th. Not only is the volume dropping on the reactions, but the candle spread has also been decreasing during those reactions as well. As I have pointed out numerous times, this is a sign that the current trend is exhausting itself. That doesn't tell us exactly when or where the trend will reverse, only that we should be aware it is growing increasingly likely that it will do so sooner rather than later in the grand scheme of things. So where does that leave us?
The current swing low is sitting at $3210 on Bitstamp. A close below this level on the 4H or higher TF should signal a move down to $2900/$3000, which was the swing low region of the September 2017 correction. However, beware of a drop below and subsequent close above $3210 on a 4H or higher TF. That would print a bullish SFP that should send price upward, at least in the near-term. Price closing above the swing high of $3633.20 should signal upward momentum, but there has been significant activity in the $3600-$3800 range indicating resistance waiting in that area. So, traders would still need to remain careful. Because of this resistance, we could see a bearish SFP print which should send price downward, at least in the short term. I will be looking for price to target the 4H R1 pivot at $4025 if price closes above that swing high while keeping in mind the resistance as spoken about.
Looking at the charts another way, there is the possibility that the ascending channel that price is in the process of printing at this time on the 1D could be a bear flag. A breakdown of this flag would signal likely further downward price progression.
The 1H chart shows the TR that has been playing out for the past four days. Traders should be mindful of the descending black channel that price is attempting to print. A close above the possible channel's resistance would indicate likely further price advance, however we could see price continue below the SC before then as price prints a Spring which would most likely also print the bullish SFP I mentioned above. We would want to see low volume on the Spring when compared to the SC. As always, a Spring isn't required so we could see price moving through the channel's resistance from its current location as well. This would print an LPS at this level and we would be then looking for a move above the TR's resistance in the form of an SOS. The descending solid red line is ultimately what we would like to see price moving above to increase the likelihood that price is heading up rather than down in the larger picture. In that case, the noted possible double bottom would be the left shoulder and the head of the IHS.
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
The current swing low is sitting at $3210 on Bitstamp. A close below this level on the 4H or higher TF should signal a move down to $2900/$3000, which was the swing low region of the September 2017 correction. However, beware of a drop below and subsequent close above $3210 on a 4H or higher TF. That would print a bullish SFP that should send price upward, at least in the near-term. Price closing above the swing high of $3633.20 should signal upward momentum, but there has been significant activity in the $3600-$3800 range indicating resistance waiting in that area. So, traders would still need to remain careful. Because of this resistance, we could see a bearish SFP print which should send price downward, at least in the short term. I will be looking for price to target the 4H R1 pivot at $4025 if price closes above that swing high while keeping in mind the resistance as spoken about.
Looking at the charts another way, there is the possibility that the ascending channel that price is in the process of printing at this time on the 1D could be a bear flag. A breakdown of this flag would signal likely further downward price progression.
The 1H chart shows the TR that has been playing out for the past four days. Traders should be mindful of the descending black channel that price is attempting to print. A close above the possible channel's resistance would indicate likely further price advance, however we could see price continue below the SC before then as price prints a Spring which would most likely also print the bullish SFP I mentioned above. We would want to see low volume on the Spring when compared to the SC. As always, a Spring isn't required so we could see price moving through the channel's resistance from its current location as well. This would print an LPS at this level and we would be then looking for a move above the TR's resistance in the form of an SOS. The descending solid red line is ultimately what we would like to see price moving above to increase the likelihood that price is heading up rather than down in the larger picture. In that case, the noted possible double bottom would be the left shoulder and the head of the IHS.
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
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