Possible trend (?)
Diupdate
Disclaimer: This is highly speculative, and is never a form of solicitation or advice. Please be responsible of your own trade.
Considering:
(1) {
+ 200MA as the longer overall trend, and 100MA as the shorter trend. A convergence between these two could indicate a possible trend reversal (not always immediate)
+ Previous records of convergence have proven to be a trend reversal (at 1h chart).
+ Triple bottom has formed
}
(2) {
- Many long-term investors are withdrawing their coins into a cold storage wallet out of fear, reducing volume in exchanges.
- Some short-term traders are exchanging their coins into fiat or alt-coin(s). Therefore decreasing price.
+ Once both parties have finished applying their strategy, support level can be more firmly established.
+ When support level seems firm, many buyers will see this moment as an opportunity to long.
}
(3) {
- Some exchanges have halted their operation before, and during August 1.
+ After operation resumes, trading volume will likely increase.
(4) {
- Bitcoin Cash (BCC) chain split in August 1, will cause users to have duplicate coins (BTC & BCC).
+ There will probably be a massive BCC dump by then by the majority supporter (BTC), reducing its price significantly.
+ Once minority support and price for BCC is low enough to be considered less relevant, investors will start to reinvest in BTC.
}
(5) {
+ Late August Segwit is expected to activate. This will be seen as very positive, and will likely cause price to uptrend like in the case of Litecoin.
- Until October, where in November a 2 MB hard-fork is planned to happen (or not). There is a lot of uncertainty at the moment, whether or not NYA signers will follow through the agreement.
- We'll know more by then.
}
From these, it is possible:
1) Price at the moment will keep testing $2400 support or if not $2200, until it is seen as firm enough. It will then go up to the previous local maxima around $2700-2900. It is less likely that the price will go beyond $3000 before August due to the lack of volume and positive sentiment.
2) Along with BCC release, there will probably be a short bearish trend followed by sideways at around $2400-2600 for one week.
3) 8 August we will see an increase in trading volume as investor/trader's confidence goes up and exchanges have started to clarify the situation at that time.
4) By then who knows how much price will rally until October. Probably create a new ATH beyond $3000.
That is my guess. No one can know for certain what will happen. I might have missed some variable/elements of influence. Please feel free to add or argue, this idea is wholly open to discussion. Thank you.
Considering:
(1) {
+ 200MA as the longer overall trend, and 100MA as the shorter trend. A convergence between these two could indicate a possible trend reversal (not always immediate)
+ Previous records of convergence have proven to be a trend reversal (at 1h chart).
+ Triple bottom has formed
}
(2) {
- Many long-term investors are withdrawing their coins into a cold storage wallet out of fear, reducing volume in exchanges.
- Some short-term traders are exchanging their coins into fiat or alt-coin(s). Therefore decreasing price.
+ Once both parties have finished applying their strategy, support level can be more firmly established.
+ When support level seems firm, many buyers will see this moment as an opportunity to long.
}
(3) {
- Some exchanges have halted their operation before, and during August 1.
+ After operation resumes, trading volume will likely increase.
(4) {
- Bitcoin Cash (BCC) chain split in August 1, will cause users to have duplicate coins (BTC & BCC).
+ There will probably be a massive BCC dump by then by the majority supporter (BTC), reducing its price significantly.
+ Once minority support and price for BCC is low enough to be considered less relevant, investors will start to reinvest in BTC.
}
(5) {
+ Late August Segwit is expected to activate. This will be seen as very positive, and will likely cause price to uptrend like in the case of Litecoin.
- Until October, where in November a 2 MB hard-fork is planned to happen (or not). There is a lot of uncertainty at the moment, whether or not NYA signers will follow through the agreement.
- We'll know more by then.
}
From these, it is possible:
1) Price at the moment will keep testing $2400 support or if not $2200, until it is seen as firm enough. It will then go up to the previous local maxima around $2700-2900. It is less likely that the price will go beyond $3000 before August due to the lack of volume and positive sentiment.
2) Along with BCC release, there will probably be a short bearish trend followed by sideways at around $2400-2600 for one week.
3) 8 August we will see an increase in trading volume as investor/trader's confidence goes up and exchanges have started to clarify the situation at that time.
4) By then who knows how much price will rally until October. Probably create a new ATH beyond $3000.
That is my guess. No one can know for certain what will happen. I might have missed some variable/elements of influence. Please feel free to add or argue, this idea is wholly open to discussion. Thank you.
Catatan
+ Bitcoin Cash news. (cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-investors-should-not-fear-august-1-chain-split)+ Bitcoin adoption in Asia is increasing in popularity, and consequently in volume. (cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-prices-propped-south-korea-regulation/)
- There is probably going to be a large bearish period during this weekend, as some investor/traders are switching to fiat and alt-coins out of worry and pre-caution.
- BTC-e exchange is down for an uncertain amount of time. This will not inspire confidence for some users.
Catatan
Convergence is about to meet, trend will be going downwards.Catatan
Price is bouncing 2700-2900 at the moment. Keep an eye during this weekend, as price could suddenly decrease.Catatan
Litecoin is at around its all-time low this July. Suspectedly $35-40 I think can provide a good support level for it to go up. A good reason behind why it might go up soon, is because of Bitcoin's upcoming technical/confirmation problem for sending/receiving during early August. As well as the lack of clarity for some investor/traders at the moment. These reasons could potentially spur a sudden increase in Litecoin's demand early August due to its usefulness and value for making transactions. It's fast, popular, has been stable for quite a while, and reasonably affordable. Knowing its rather solid support level, many investors will see this as an opportunity to go long.
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