Bitcoin: Trade the trend and win

24 Apr 2018

I see lots of poeple shorting at the moment and it just breaks my heart to see how rekt they are becoming trying to pick tops, just like the bulls buying allll the way down (At one point, I was one of them before I decided to go with the flow).

Here is a simple trick that will save you a lot of money. Trade the trend dummie!

How to identify the trend:

• Add a 50 moving average to your chart
  
• When the 50 is pointing up, its an uptrend
  
• When the 50 is pointing down, its a downtrend
  
• When the 50 is sideways or choppy (whipsaw) trend is undecided, might be changing, or might continue
  

The rule is simple.

• In an uptrend, the bias is weighted to the long side. Trade long! Don't sell short silly!
  
• In a downtrend, the bias is weight to the short side. Trade short! Don't buy the falling knife silly!
  
• In a choppy / undecided we are ranging. You can trade either way just be careful as it can break out! (I tend to lose most of my trades in these regions)
  

Once a trend is established - go with it.

Good luck!

24 Apr 2018

Catatan

Pro tip: The trend should be identified on many timescales, higher TF outweighs lower but moves can take longer to materialise. My favourite timescale is the 4-hour for Bitcoin.

24 Apr 2018

Catatan

Pro tip: The longer a trend is established the higher priority it will reverse. Its counter intuitive to buy continuations on trends but you can get 2, 3, 4, trades in the trend direction sometimes before it reverses.

Just be aware. Once the trend is easily noticeable then it might be near to the end ... We can watch the MA's for flattening out to see if a trend is near the end, or strong RSI divergence.

24 Apr 2018

Catatan

Pro tip: Large counter-trend moves signal the trend may be nearing an end. Usually there is one sharp move before the trend rolls over. Trend changes take time! Stop shorting every drop in a bull run and instead wait for the right moment!

25 Apr 2018

Catatan

So this is where the rubber hits the road. The trend is UP but the day is DOWN. What do we do?

Sell? or look for longs



It can take time to play out, don't expect to resume an uptrend like that immediately. Watch wait, if the price starts to bottom out and enough time has passed to allow profit takers to exit, its time to buy

26 Apr 2018

Catatan

After a dump in a trend, the best policy is to wait, wait and wait some more. It takes time for dumps to play out. As they settle down and round out that is the time to consider buying.

26 Apr 2018

Catatan

This is what I mean by wait for price to settle down before buying. Buying this level and stop below the low with max 2% account risked to stop is a good R/R trade

26 Apr 2018

Catatan

26 Apr 2018

Catatan

Trade the trend and win ;)

26 Apr 2018

Catatan

So what just happened there? Manipulation right?

Lol no ...

The strongly trending 50-hour MA on the 4-hour timescale touched the price. When this happens you get what I call 'the push'. The MA 'pushes' the price in the same direction.



The price can violate the MA momentarily. Look at the wicks below, but none of the candles closed below the 50 MA.

When the sellers were exhausted (notice declining volume) we find our buy entry with extremely high risk:reward.

27 Apr 2018

Catatan

So prices pulled back a little bit, but they bounced (again) off the 4-hour 50 MA



Trend is up guys, trade the trend :)

28 Apr 2018

Catatan

If you're following this thread and want to know when to get out the market, these are areas I'm looking at to exit long positions if broken below.



If exited, rather than short, I will stay out the market until price action becomes clearer.

3 Mei 2018

Catatan

Triangle took a little while longer than expected to form, and had lots of fakes in both directions, but has finally broken out up.

When in an uptrend, trade long,
When in a downtrend, trade short.

15 Mei 2018

Catatan

Update. Major support broke, 50 MA pointing down. Considering this a downtrend until proven otherwise