History repeats itself? Thoughts on BTC's future and BitcoinGold
BTC has been on an amazing trend upwards this year. We entered the year with a price between 1k and 2k USD. Now, we are looking at an alltime high of more than 6000 USD - this is crazy.
BTC is ready for a pullback - markets tend to pull back after such enormous growths - and BTC is not exempt from that.
As we can see, I highlighted the old alltime highs of BTCUSD with red lines. It is obvious, that BTC tended to reach a new alltime high, then had a correction and fell back a litte, and then rose again to the final alltime high for that session - and afterwards had a massive pullback. Its kinda is similar to a double top.
At this moment, BTC is doing exactly that again. It was rising to a new alltime high after its rally up to 5k - had a short pullback - and afterwards rose again. It is still rising - and it may continue to do so for a while. But i do not think that this is a good point to enter, hoping that the trend will continue. As Murphy pointed out in his famous piece on the technical analysis: history tends to repeat itself when it comes to markets. And I think, that BTC is not far from a strong pullback.
At the same time we can see, that the pullbacks of the past became stronger in the past when it comes to the speed of the decrease. So if BTC will have a pullback, it may also be a faster and more severe pullback compared to the others.
I would therefore advice noone to buy into BTC, hoping that the trend will continue - and also NOT for getting BTGold (BitcoinGold). The atmosphere in the cryptocommunity is very negative when it comes to BTGold - most holders of BTC say, that they want to sell BTGold as fast as possible. Such a strong sale causes a strong decrease in value - and that means, that BTGold would be worth near to nothing.
But since all the buyers of BTC, who baught BTC just for getting BTGold, would try to sell their BTC at the new alltime high, the price for BTC would drop in a very severe way. This would also coincide with what I said previously about the BTC pullback. Buying BTC now just for getting BTGold would therefore tend to be a bad trade, since BTGold should be worth near to nothing and chances are that BTC might fall severely afterwards.
So what do I suggest?
I suggest investing into Altcoins at this point - or at least to keep an eye on them. Most of them are extremely cheap at the moment - many, like XMR, have perfect buying opportunities (XMR just had a 50%-pullback - so for those, who want to hold XMR longterm: this might be the chance to enter) - and whenever BTC drops severely, people automatically focus on altcoins again.
This is what I think about the situation. Don't forget: This is just what I feel and think - do your own research and follow your own ideas and conclusions.
BTC is ready for a pullback - markets tend to pull back after such enormous growths - and BTC is not exempt from that.
As we can see, I highlighted the old alltime highs of BTCUSD with red lines. It is obvious, that BTC tended to reach a new alltime high, then had a correction and fell back a litte, and then rose again to the final alltime high for that session - and afterwards had a massive pullback. Its kinda is similar to a double top.
At this moment, BTC is doing exactly that again. It was rising to a new alltime high after its rally up to 5k - had a short pullback - and afterwards rose again. It is still rising - and it may continue to do so for a while. But i do not think that this is a good point to enter, hoping that the trend will continue. As Murphy pointed out in his famous piece on the technical analysis: history tends to repeat itself when it comes to markets. And I think, that BTC is not far from a strong pullback.
At the same time we can see, that the pullbacks of the past became stronger in the past when it comes to the speed of the decrease. So if BTC will have a pullback, it may also be a faster and more severe pullback compared to the others.
I would therefore advice noone to buy into BTC, hoping that the trend will continue - and also NOT for getting BTGold (BitcoinGold). The atmosphere in the cryptocommunity is very negative when it comes to BTGold - most holders of BTC say, that they want to sell BTGold as fast as possible. Such a strong sale causes a strong decrease in value - and that means, that BTGold would be worth near to nothing.
But since all the buyers of BTC, who baught BTC just for getting BTGold, would try to sell their BTC at the new alltime high, the price for BTC would drop in a very severe way. This would also coincide with what I said previously about the BTC pullback. Buying BTC now just for getting BTGold would therefore tend to be a bad trade, since BTGold should be worth near to nothing and chances are that BTC might fall severely afterwards.
So what do I suggest?
I suggest investing into Altcoins at this point - or at least to keep an eye on them. Most of them are extremely cheap at the moment - many, like XMR, have perfect buying opportunities (XMR just had a 50%-pullback - so for those, who want to hold XMR longterm: this might be the chance to enter) - and whenever BTC drops severely, people automatically focus on altcoins again.
This is what I think about the situation. Don't forget: This is just what I feel and think - do your own research and follow your own ideas and conclusions.
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