week3 / march / last leg up on PHASE 1

Oleh MacroTradingE

Diupdate

매매일지

Catatan

possible 2 range that gives time major alt to follow up.

Catatan

yes we will eventually fill the gap, but this time i expect btc to finish leg up and full retrace back later to liquidity void and fill the gap on that retrace.
shake out early monday morning, and shoot back up next week (green week)

Catatan

also poc doesn't really effect hard on this new range since we broke ATH,
but if you looking to enter new long position, 59908 - 60200 would work.

Catatan

in bull market, real alt bull market comes when dominance below 60

Catatan

and 2nd option

Catatan

ETH

Catatan

small bidding here

Catatan

50x long taken out, 25x ? don't think so

Catatan

time for major Alts maybe ?

Catatan

still think we won't fill the CME gap, market will pushed thru derivatives, and fill the void later with spot sells.

Catatan

Btc - Buy vs Sell (Spot vs Derivs)

Price: $58,999

Spot Vol.
　Buy: 122.4M
　Sell: 138.2M

Derivs Vol.
　Buy: 768.7M
　Sell:

USDT Vol.
　Buy: 35.6M
　Sell: 29.4M

(Latest 1 hours of data)

i ve bid more on this level 59200

Catatan

cme gap below , lots of untouched liquidity , fresh shorts
if co wants to push market with derivatives, they need a fuel
and it should be a good one.
so no directional bias, sure we can grab liquidity below 57k ish.
but think y are the CO that moves market, if you can push market with derivatives thru short closing = buying back (spot) , easily to upside and y can unload some spot btc on the better place, also it would make a big liquidity chunk below that can support their re accumulation or distribution. its a theory.

Catatan

viceversa - there is many demand on around cme gap that can bring bounce quick, so y can sell bit of stocks to pull the price down lower to get better bounce.

reason why i do not think this way is, there is no real supply at market on this moment, market is moving with derivatives now, then CO must close long position to sell the stocks, see the funding rates ( viewbase.com ). i don't see there is much closing on long positions.

Catatan

so when btc bounce on this range, and head to 65k or over.
we will see that moves pushed thru derivatives (volume) and ironically funding won't go too high from now ( because CO will close their position on the uprise )
ppls won't calling for high funding rate ( because its been there, and its a BULL market lol ) and we will face rough retracement to this range or dipper ( 42-57 )

Catatan

and funny that CME isn't selling, if it fills , it should be way dipper than 57.4 it could be.

Catatan

cme gap not filled, but look at spots.. its already there

Catatan

cme gap not filled, but liquidity void taken

Catatan

didn't expect it lol.
54k is next liquidity zone

Catatan

case #2

Catatan

case #3

taken out all liquidity void near by. 50k

Catatan

better we get support here, since 3day candle has strong support.

Catatan

NY open will be something cool?

Catatan

see the liquidity void

Catatan

consolidate below poc, possible one more wick down.

Catatan

in a bigger picture, btc should bounce on 52.7 with closing all the liquidity void.
if we go lower i will worry.

Catatan

Btc - Buy vs Sell (Spot vs Derivs)

Price: $54,496

Spot Vol.
　Buy: 354.6M
　Sell: 352.9M

Derivs Vol.
　Buy: 1.9B
　Sell: 1.9B

USDT Vol.
　Buy: 45.2M
　Sell: 41.8M

(Latest 1 hours of data)

volume on monthly vwap

Catatan

heavy bidding on monthly vwap

Catatan

note

it's not time to be bearish, and expecting reversal.
don't marry with your bias

Catatan

Buy vs Sell (Spot vs Derivs)

Price: $55,931

Spot Vol.
　Buy: 182.9M
　Sell: 140.6M

Derivs Vol.
　Buy: 1.1B
　Sell: 926.3M

USDT Vol.
　Buy: 29.8M
　Sell: 23.8M

(Latest 1 hours of data)

Catatan

most calling for this bearish divergence on weekly/daily/4hour

다이버전스는 그 인디케이터의 high/low 가 컨펌이 되야 하는 것입니다.
한마디로 주봉상/일봉상 rsi low 가 나오기 전까지
weekly bearish / daily bearish div 는 온전히 추측일 수 밖에 없습니다.

Catatan

if y want to sell the market, y can sure do that.
but y would do sell the market without confirmation.
confirmation will give you entry as well.

Catatan

lets see what NY brings us

Catatan

Buy vs Sell (Spot vs Derivs)

Price: $55,387

Spot Vol.
　Buy: 156.3M
　Sell: 135.1M

Derivs Vol.
　Buy: 782M
　Sell: 911M

USDT Vol.
　Buy: 27.6M
　Sell: 39.1M

(Latest 1 hours of data)

Catatan

+funding rates ...
its coming

Catatan

While it may seem small, the ripple effects of small things is extraordinary. ...

Catatan

bounced on local eq, and above poc now.. should squeeze follow soon

Catatan

so far so good, consolidation between previous weekly vwap and daily vwap.

Catatan

fresh 3day candle, previous candle close in bullish contiunation.

Catatan

Btc - Buy vs Sell (Spot vs Derivs)

Price: $56,553

Spot Vol.
　Buy: 158.3M
　Sell: 139M

Derivs Vol.
　Buy: 1.1B
　Sell: 928M

USDT Vol.
　Buy: 27.5M
　Sell: 15.9M

(Latest 1 hours of data)

Catatan

Btc - Buy vs Sell (Spot vs Derivs)

Price: $55,586

Spot Vol.
　Buy: 67.2M
　Sell: 65.4M

Derivs Vol.
　Buy: 508.8M
　Sell: 624.7M

USDT Vol.
　Buy: 14.2M
　Sell: 18.4M

(Latest 1 hours of data)

Catatan

Took full profit on Hbar

Enj , Hbar seems breaking down parabolic structure.
Major alt seems pretty good especially XRP

Catatan

ETH, XTZ, XRP , DOT , LTC in my alt bag.

Catatan

CHZ,Theta still in parabolic and no signs of weakness yet.
BAT started Parabolic, this usually goes stronger than expectation.

Catatan

Buy vs Sell (Spot vs Derivs)

Price: $56,003

Spot Vol.
　Buy: 79.4M
　Sell: 81.9M

Derivs Vol.
　Buy: 659.8M
　Sell: 662.9M

USDT Vol.
　Buy: 12.7M
　Sell: 9.8M

(Latest 1 hours of data)

note

still demand < supply in volumewise,
but price consolidated and made bounce = ?

Catatan

many short liquidity around ath, and possible path, trap more shorts ? or break through and push up higher with liquidation cascade.

Catatan

Btc - Buy vs Sell (Spot vs Derivs)

Price: $56,350

Spot Vol.
　Buy:
　Sell: 82M

Derivs Vol.
　Buy: 575M
　Sell: 480.8M

USDT Vol.
　Buy: 19M
　Sell: 14.4M

(Latest 1 hours of data)

derivative apes season coming

Catatan

Btc - Buy vs Sell (Spot vs Derivs)

Price: $55,791

Spot Vol.
　Buy: 78.6M
　Sell:

Derivs Vol.
　Buy: 486.2M
　Sell: 473.2M

USDT Vol.
　Buy: 20.3M
　Sell: 29.3M

(Latest 1 hours of data)

Catatan

still consolidating between previous weekly vwap and daily vwap.
if breaks down 50-51k would be good bidding

Catatan

filling inefficiency

Catatan

Btc - Buy vs Sell (Spot vs Derivs)

Price: $55,066

Spot Vol.
　Buy: 120.7M
　Sell: 104.6M

Derivs Vol.
　Buy: 721.2M
　Sell: 702.6M

USDT Vol.
　Buy: 23.2M
　Sell:

(Latest 1 hours of data)

Catatan

Btc - Buy vs Sell (Spot vs Derivs)

Price: $54,841

Spot Vol.
　Buy: 97.1M
　Sell: 96.7M

Derivs Vol.
　Buy: 759.1M
　Sell: 786.8M

USDT Vol.
　Buy: 16.6M
　Sell: 14.6M

(Latest 1 hours of data)

neutral again, market need a trigger

Catatan

Btc - Buy vs Sell (Spot vs Derivs)

Price: $55,183

Spot Vol.
　Buy: 192.6M
　Sell: 184M

Derivs Vol.
　Buy: 1.5B
　Sell: 1.4B

USDT Vol.
　Buy: 17.1M
　Sell: 19.3M

(Latest 1 hours of data)

note

There is an announcement today at FOMC that everyone is concerned about,
i think the good news and the bad news that everyone knows is priced in already.
was it priced in good or bad ?
+ bond rised , stocks been sideway and pulled a bit, btc followed us100.
my bet Powell won't speak about any good or bad thing, after that it will push market up again without concerns.

Catatan

if we break this supply chain, there is no stopping zone for short term.
70k + in one week prob

Catatan

viewbase.com/funding

this move barely made change on rates,
more squeeze ?

Catatan

Price: $58,928

Spot Vol.
　Buy: 224.8M
　Sell: 191.5M

Derivs Vol.
　Buy: 1.4B
　Sell: 1.2B

USDT Vol.
　Buy: 19.7M
　Sell: 25.1M

(Latest 1 hours of data)

Catatan

volume on spot is most important since btc heading towards ATH.
market is mostly pushing by volume on derivatives, which could be a concern.
but yes, i will wait and see when btc breaks ATH 61k, 65k will be a good point to watch if supply pops up.

Catatan

if we hit supply on 63-65k ish, and see if there is signs of weakness.
btc prob gonna feel all the liquidity void below 39k , 44k.

Catatan

possibility like this

Catatan

again, its a one of possibilities, there is no signs of weakness yet.
and local bottom , volume expanded ( accumulated ).

Catatan

참고(교육) 자료.

Catatan

st , liquidity = 56.9 - 57.1

Catatan

57.3 = 50x long liquidation

Catatan

Btc - Buy vs Sell (Spot vs Derivs)

Price: $58,161

Spot Vol.
　Buy: 95M
　Sell: 95.4M

Derivs Vol.
　Buy: 501.3M
　Sell: 629.4M

USDT Vol.
　Buy: 16.8M
　Sell: 16.8M

(Latest 1 hours of data)

spot neutral , derivatives more sells.

Catatan

Btc - Buy vs Sell (Spot vs Derivs)

Price: $58,100

Spot Vol.
　Buy: 149M
　Sell: 145.2M

Derivs Vol.
　Buy: 871.9M
　Sell: 915.2M

USDT Vol.
　Buy: 25.9M
　Sell: 32.8M

(Latest 1 hours of data)

reversion

Catatan

some supply pop , im laddering my order on low 56

Catatan

Im bidding 30% here 56.5

Catatan

deviation happen when there is liquidity to take out.

Catatan

st , liquidity = all taken, building a position

Catatan

volume expanded on local bottom, consolidate above poc , funding neutral.
facebood ? apple ? 64k would be good target on next spike up.

my stops on b.e , enjoy the wknd

Trading ditutup: target tercapai

Catatan

Spot Vol.
　Buy: 148.9M
　Sell: 138.6M

Derivs Vol.
　Buy: 1.1B
　Sell: 1.1B

USDT Vol.
　Buy: 19.3M
　Sell: 20.2M

(Latest 1 hours of data)

Catatan

stepping on stone, enjoy the short squeeze on ny open.

MacroTradingE

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