Crypto Winter has begun
If this is indeed a major bear market, I think we can speculate about the returns for a potential fifth cycle.
Cycle 2 was ~600x ($2 bottom / $1,200 top)
Cycle 3 was ~100x ($200 bottom, $20,000 top)
Cycle 4 would be ~20x ($3,000 bottom, $60,000 top)
The returns seem to be diminished by a factor of 5-6, as the cycles move on.
So if it turns out that that:
a) We capitulate to the $20,000 region this year
b) This becomes the new market cycle bottom
Cycle 5 diminishing by the same factor would implicate ~4x returns, and the next major top could be around $80,000.
Basically, volatility reducing and Bitcoin becoming just another traditional asset.
Cycle 2 was ~600x ($2 bottom / $1,200 top)
Cycle 3 was ~100x ($200 bottom, $20,000 top)
Cycle 4 would be ~20x ($3,000 bottom, $60,000 top)
The returns seem to be diminished by a factor of 5-6, as the cycles move on.
So if it turns out that that:
a) We capitulate to the $20,000 region this year
b) This becomes the new market cycle bottom
Cycle 5 diminishing by the same factor would implicate ~4x returns, and the next major top could be around $80,000.
Basically, volatility reducing and Bitcoin becoming just another traditional asset.
Publikasi terkait
Pernyataan Penyangkalan
Informasi dan publikasi tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan bukan merupakan saran keuangan, investasi, perdagangan, atau rekomendasi lainnya yang diberikan atau didukung oleh TradingView. Baca selengkapnya di Persyaratan Penggunaan.