BTC bounce - if support holds next stop $8600+ then $10,000+

This is a very short-term analysis of BTC as I am looking to get into position on some altcoins - mainly XLM if BTC support holds. I don't play such short timeframes in BTC but the price action over the next few days will indicate something very important and hopefully signal to everyone that support has been reached.

I am expecting that wave a down has completed from the recent bounce. After a small sub-wave b bounce (which may or not be over) I am waiting for wave c down to around the 0.786 fib retracement level (a 1:1 extension of wave a). If that retracement does not go below the $5800 starting point of the previous bounce AND afterwards forms a wave i and ii (that also does not retrace >100% of wave i - I will be entering a long swing / medium term position. If these conditions are met then it is very realistic to be expecting $8600+ in a week or two (this will be wave 3 and will likely be the strongest - and most likely wave to extend) and $10,150+ after all five sub-waves are completed (to finish wave 3 up) This will also, in my humble opinion, mark the end of the bear market. So let's hope all of the above unfolds. If it does, the 0.786 fib level will form wave 2 of a larger impulse move up.

What I will be looking for when BTC retraces to the 0.786 fib level: a strong bulish hammer candle with low volume that will signal that selling pressure has eased. Short-term players may want to take advantage of that but I for one am getting tired to being caught up in bull traps and am waiting for strong confirmation.

I am not super careful with my wave degrees - I only try to avoid clutter and show a larger or smaller degree wave. This is published for my own education and is 100% technical analysis - no fundamental analysis or news has been taken into account. Apologies for any typos.

Happy trading / accumulating.