This Is The Moment Of Truth For Bitcoin
Diupdate
Alright! After weeks of talking about this long term bullish channel and speculating about an eventual test of the top of said channel, Bitcoin has finally done so. This area is confirmed as a supply zone, based on the enormous spike in volume as we got rejected twice from that area. Whether or not Bitcoin can break above the channel resistance to the upside will dictate medium term price action. This really is the moment of truth. How Bitcoin behaves here will tell us whether or not we will see an accelerated bull cycle/double bubble (like 2013), or if we will slowly grind up (like 2015-2017).
My more conservative view from the last several months has had Bitcoin testing the top of the channel, only to get rejected and head down to the bottom again. That would give us a pretty substantial correction from current prices, before moving back up towards the top of the channel again for a "slower growth" scenario. On the other hand....if somehow Bitcoin gets above that blue trendline...the possibility of a new ATH within the next couple of months will greatly increase. Just look how Bitcoin has reacted to a break of that trendline in the past! Zoom out. I made a post recently saying that Bitcoin could get to $50-60K by next month. It was a bit of an exaggeration, but it was done to illustrate that Bitcoin can make these wild moves on occasion. If Bitcoin breaks up here, I'm not sure if we'll see 50K THAT quickly. Perhaps by August or September. You never know. One thing is for sure, a lot of analysts on here seem to be floundering, and are rightfully baffled. Tons of people (including pros) were probably shorting on the way up from 5K.
As mentioned above, there is downside risk here. It all depends on whether or not Bitcoin can break out above the channel resistance. If it cannot, we would also have to see how the market reacts if and when it gets back to the bottom of the channel. If a new bull market as begun, I would expect the bottom of the channel to hold. But...if as some are expecting, we're about to see a deeper C wave...we'd break back below it. No need to worry about this now though. For now, the crypto market is resembling the recovery of stocks like Amazon after that bubble popped. It's an entirely new asset class, so this makes sense. This is apparent in many ways - a few coins are recovering very well, but many are stagnating on low volume, and may very well die out...particularly with some regulatory fears.
Anyway, despite my extreme accuracy in following potential crypto market movements, and despite being correct in the assumption that the market would move up as a whole, I failed in predicting that Bitcoin would completely annihilate most altcoins on their ratios and reclaim much of its dominance. This is unfortunate for me, since I'm a believer in altcoins, and it's been painful to watch the market go up as my portfolio remains relatively stagnant. I'm trying to be as patient as possible. Some alts are finally making higher highs though, which I see as a positive development. They are certainly lagging, but I think confidence needs to return to Bitcoin and the higher caps first. People need to be convinced that this move is "real." Most alts are really not showing much volume or confidence right now. In the last bull cycle, alts didn't start increasing on their ratios until Bitcoin topped out. This means that the ratios could be squashed further if Bitcoin continues up from here. For example, if ETH can't hold 0.023, and if XRP can't hold 4K sats....that would be pretty bad. But maybe those breakdowns are necessary if we're to finally see some alt buying action.
Regardless, here are some of my favorite posts from the last several months:
Timing the bottom:
Timing the bottom again:
Projecting a potential move all the way up to where we are now, back in February!
Perfectly nailing the breakout and reversal:
Comparing ETH to post-dotcom bubble AMZN stock:
Recently projecting a move to the top of the channel above 11K:
Forecasting a move for the crypto market towards 300B and beyond:
This is not financial advice! I just wanted to post an update since I enjoy analyzing this market. Plus I've been away for the last week.
-Victor Cobra
My more conservative view from the last several months has had Bitcoin testing the top of the channel, only to get rejected and head down to the bottom again. That would give us a pretty substantial correction from current prices, before moving back up towards the top of the channel again for a "slower growth" scenario. On the other hand....if somehow Bitcoin gets above that blue trendline...the possibility of a new ATH within the next couple of months will greatly increase. Just look how Bitcoin has reacted to a break of that trendline in the past! Zoom out. I made a post recently saying that Bitcoin could get to $50-60K by next month. It was a bit of an exaggeration, but it was done to illustrate that Bitcoin can make these wild moves on occasion. If Bitcoin breaks up here, I'm not sure if we'll see 50K THAT quickly. Perhaps by August or September. You never know. One thing is for sure, a lot of analysts on here seem to be floundering, and are rightfully baffled. Tons of people (including pros) were probably shorting on the way up from 5K.
As mentioned above, there is downside risk here. It all depends on whether or not Bitcoin can break out above the channel resistance. If it cannot, we would also have to see how the market reacts if and when it gets back to the bottom of the channel. If a new bull market as begun, I would expect the bottom of the channel to hold. But...if as some are expecting, we're about to see a deeper C wave...we'd break back below it. No need to worry about this now though. For now, the crypto market is resembling the recovery of stocks like Amazon after that bubble popped. It's an entirely new asset class, so this makes sense. This is apparent in many ways - a few coins are recovering very well, but many are stagnating on low volume, and may very well die out...particularly with some regulatory fears.
Anyway, despite my extreme accuracy in following potential crypto market movements, and despite being correct in the assumption that the market would move up as a whole, I failed in predicting that Bitcoin would completely annihilate most altcoins on their ratios and reclaim much of its dominance. This is unfortunate for me, since I'm a believer in altcoins, and it's been painful to watch the market go up as my portfolio remains relatively stagnant. I'm trying to be as patient as possible. Some alts are finally making higher highs though, which I see as a positive development. They are certainly lagging, but I think confidence needs to return to Bitcoin and the higher caps first. People need to be convinced that this move is "real." Most alts are really not showing much volume or confidence right now. In the last bull cycle, alts didn't start increasing on their ratios until Bitcoin topped out. This means that the ratios could be squashed further if Bitcoin continues up from here. For example, if ETH can't hold 0.023, and if XRP can't hold 4K sats....that would be pretty bad. But maybe those breakdowns are necessary if we're to finally see some alt buying action.
Regardless, here are some of my favorite posts from the last several months:
Timing the bottom:
Timing the bottom again:
Projecting a potential move all the way up to where we are now, back in February!
Perfectly nailing the breakout and reversal:
Comparing ETH to post-dotcom bubble AMZN stock:
Recently projecting a move to the top of the channel above 11K:
Forecasting a move for the crypto market towards 300B and beyond:
This is not financial advice! I just wanted to post an update since I enjoy analyzing this market. Plus I've been away for the last week.
-Victor Cobra
Catatan
By the way, those two dark blue trendlines on this chart are also important, but I won't be using them until Bitcoin comes in contact with them again.Catatan
As I talked about in my recent video, the same channel on the Bitfinex chart is a little different. I've also mentioned using multiple exchanges when trying to analyze price action. Based on this chart, it's possible that Bitcoin will see a sizable pullback here. It may only pull back to the broken channel on Bitstamp though for a retest, which would be back in the 11K zone. Catatan
However, if Bitcoin can break above the channel even on Bitfinex, I think ATH becomes much more likely sooner rather than later.
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