Classic Accumulation TR - Wykoff

6 Jun 2018

Be here with me to watch this play out.

Read more about the phases here:
stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_analysis:the_wyckoff_method
stockcharts.com/articles/wyckoff/2015/06/jumping-the-creek.html

6 Jun 2018

Catatan

I'll be posting updates of my intraday possible trade positions during this accumulation phase. I've had a good track record so far (you can see this in previous TA updates).

I see a wedge forming into a small drop.
3 volume based bearish divergences on the half hour, + RSI.

6 Jun 2018

Catatan

Those divergences weren't enough. Did not turn out to be a wedge but another range. Luckily this little bungee jump the price did kissed my take profits so I can re-enter the trade. Opening another short here as CMF and OBV still diverging, while we're flying high to the resistance. Accumulation spiked up after the drop and those two green candles show big money has a tight grip on the wheel. My theory that they're so happy taking at these prices is either the spring is going to be far shallower than I imagine or keeping prices here is the goldilocks for retail money selling, as I think the market is very wise to Long near the support after the impact April left behind. I do believe this Accumulation will see a spring and I'm beginning to think this accumulation phase will stretch longer than BTC is used to seeing prices sideways - I won't expand on why I think that now, but if i turn out to be right i'll do a post on it.

7 Jun 2018

Catatan

Even though we see the resistance contested again without a bounce I am still keeping my short open. I am still secured by the divergence of price action and volume, plus the larger picture of accumulation and the bounce at 7,2 being too weak for this bull rally to continue.
Because we should be reaching a drop I've included the Chaikin oscillator (pink line). This indicator measures the momentum of the A/D, representing bearish momentum while approaching below the zero line. Because its an indicator of an indicator it is further removed from price thus holds less weight. When paired against the ADL we see it has proven in the recent time frames to precede the ADL's direction. As momentum precedes price this is to be expected, and here's hoping we don't get a surprise this time round. I wouldn't normally weight the Chaikin oscillator so heavily but we see a sharp divergence here. Regarding the larger picture and why we've contested the trading range's top twice before making a fair correction down: my theory rests there's a lot of fresh money moving in and latecomers see the pattern of sixes and the bounce on the 30th uncorrected. Although big money wants to accumulate here, I feel they'll take some extra profits by shorting soon. If 7850 doesn't break I expect a drop of 400-500 points over the next 4-7 days.

7 Jun 2018

Catatan

here's a link to the BTC mempool (charts amount of pending transactions).
You'll see before and after the 6th of June the volume became unprecedented.
This supports the idea the 6th of June is an influential date for new money, which is what is keeping the resistance tested.
blockchain.info/charts/mempool-size?timespan=60days

8 Jun 2018

Catatan

Mempool has almost been cleared out with no effect on price action. Will be interesting to see if still none in 12 hours.
Here's another confirmation for the possible double top: if pattern repeats on the MFI we should see profits in the next few hours.

9 Jun 2018

Catatan

The prolonged sideways movement has put halt to intraday scalping. I'll be continuing daily - bidaily analysis updates on the new TA here -->