BTC possible bull trap ahead & systemic risk to the market
Diupdate
Bitcoin has enjoyed its status and name recognition but hasn't received much-needed updates to resolve problems with its fundamentals. It's my belief that sooner rather than later it'll be displaced by one or hopefully several other better-qualified alternatives.
If we look at the chart, in Oct the weekly and monthly EMAs crossed twice & each time the price touched the monthly EMA a strong rebound ensued. However, it's undeniable that bitcoin has been overextended. I do believe that a very likely scenario is that three corrective waves will be completed. This will also form a head & shoulder trend reversal for BTCUSD. The danger zone would be between 15k and 17k.
Btw, the indicators haven't given a buy signal for a while, only sells. But of course any clear head can understand why. I think this is a quite likely scenario, but this market is very uncertain. There's a lot of information asymmetry that retail investors have to deal with. It's important to manage risks & deleverage as the price goes up. If and only if BTC has a period of consolidation can be we confident in levering up again.
Check out my site: jlteng.com
If we look at the chart, in Oct the weekly and monthly EMAs crossed twice & each time the price touched the monthly EMA a strong rebound ensued. However, it's undeniable that bitcoin has been overextended. I do believe that a very likely scenario is that three corrective waves will be completed. This will also form a head & shoulder trend reversal for BTCUSD. The danger zone would be between 15k and 17k.
Btw, the indicators haven't given a buy signal for a while, only sells. But of course any clear head can understand why. I think this is a quite likely scenario, but this market is very uncertain. There's a lot of information asymmetry that retail investors have to deal with. It's important to manage risks & deleverage as the price goes up. If and only if BTC has a period of consolidation can be we confident in levering up again.
Check out my site: jlteng.com
Catatan
It appears that the coast isn't clear as some have argued, but I think it probably will go up a little more before POSSIBLE further drops.Also check tether issuance. Without the T, BC goes down
Catatan
Tomorrow will be crucial:If BTC goes down a little more, we'll have a death cross of weekly EMA crossing down the monthly EMA + H&S will be confirmed.
If this happens, BTC will go to at least 9k if not lower. The bubble will be burst.
Catatan
It almost appears that BTC will go to 15k at this point. Uncertainty will be with the next step.Catatan
Found this on reddit: imgtc.com/i/6vNVjc9.jpgNot sure how to process it in terms of price movement. Personally, I was aware of blockstream but not mastercard & the fed having stakes in btc.
My personal thought on bitcoin has been that it could very well crash after 28/12, but I have been wrong many times on this specific issue.
One thing to look at would be the wealth concentration: bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/
If this drops, we know the big boys have bated
Catatan
It's blowing off --- even before the fake fork.Yes, top wallets are now poorer.
Catatan
Just noticed that it did follow this old chart quite well. I do think a bounce back to ~14.2k as shown here is likely today or tomorrow. Sell opportunity, perhaps.
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