Building a Long Term Long Position Swing Trade

7 Apr 2019

So if you followed me, you know I've been shorting cycles and certainly attempted to short this last cycle. In doing that, I missed the big move. That's fairly common with my trading style. Even Though I was long at $3400, I did not hold into these prices (I do have long term bitcoin I purchased at $3500, just not a swing trade).

And I believe we are due for a cycle low at any time.

But I'm going to do something different here. Despite being way off the lows. Despite being near highs. I'm going to start a long position. And look to build it it up.

There are times when I trade cycles and there are times when you have to listen to the market.

Historically when bitcoin takes off it simply does not always pull back and give you an ideal entry. This asset loves to leave people at the station. I see bears in disbelief. I've been one of the biggest bears but when the market tells me its time to switch, I switch. I believe a lot of shorts are trying to take it down to $4600. Maybe we get it. If we do then its a gift. If we get $4200 its an amazing gift. I would not be surprised to see a huge flush to shake out late bulls. But I will still hold the position I'm starting then add if we go lower. Why?

1. We saw a nice accumulation periods
2. We went down without a right translated cycle low for 16 months.
3. We just had a right translated cycle.
4. We crossed the 200 MA
5. Today we will get a weekly swing high.
6. We broke out and have held near highs now for 5 days.
7. We reset the TD9 daily
8. Strong volume on breakout but this consolidation volume is also very high

This is basically a strong enough start that its highly unlikely we end at $5100. Short term price action is very bullish and at some point, you have to just have to throw away dips and start buying and make a plan to buy to accumulate. I did quite well during the the bear market, so I have no problems putting that profit at risk when we have this many bullish signs.

I'll be buying a BTC and ETH position. I will add as we drop lower. I will add on the next cycle low whether its lower or higher than todays price.

13 Apr 2019

Catatan

A word of warning. Even though I'm still learning bullish, I'm going to take some caution here. If we go bullish, I'll have plenty of time to ride it higher. I want to see some confirmation now before I try to get too comfortable long. The sweep of highs and aggressive move down, combined with a weak bounce isn't a good look in the short term.

We are still in a bearish channel. Also, with cycles there is something known as an inversion. Every now and then instead of getting a 55-60 drop, you get a spike into the 60 day cycle.

I don't know if this is the case, just think chances are better we go a bit lower and I want to manage risk.

I had a long I took here earlier. I booked some profit at $5400 but I'm going to close it for now and wait to see what happens.

I'm looking for support to form in a logical place whether that is $4900, $4800 or $4600. I'd like to see a shallow drop get bought up here soon to keep the bullish momentum.

16 Apr 2019

Catatan

The move down from $5450 started as an impulse. Now it's grinding but holding $4900. I am now building a fairly large long position here. Price action of the last few days suggests that there is short term accumulation at the range low here and the bottom of liquidity. As long as we hold $4800, I believe its setting up for a big bullish push. I believe we have our cycle low or will have a cycle low near $4800-$4900 within days and then we will have another right translated cycle.

Lets recap.

1. We now have a strong move breakout
2. We have been holding above the 200 DMA for weeks now
3. We have a strong weekly candle
4. We have what appears to be very productive consolidation
5. Its setting up nicely for a bear trap
6. Its more likely smart money will protect that lack of liquidity under $4800 now that we've seen several buys the last week.
7. MA's are positioning and there are plenty of bears to squeeze.

You can make trading simple here. I think this is a matter of risk vs. reward. If we hold $4800 (outside of scammy wicks), then we should start the next cycle. If its another strong bullish cycle then it has a chance to get past $6300 but I'll use time as my guide.

If you missed the move up, then so what? You have to look at the trend and say. OK, everything is bullish so I might as well jump in on this consolidation until I see something more bearish. Besides, bitcoin has this tendency to not pullback much so people waiting on $4400-$4800 probably get left at the station.

If we lose $4800 then time to re-assess as the risk of it filling liquidity below us becomes a bit dangerous.

26 Apr 2019

Catatan

I held my long to the $5600 took some profit, reloaded at $5400 and then was just stopped out on this tether news at $5100 for 50% of my position. I then decided to close the full position at $5130 last night. The end result is a small profit from my $5050 buy.

This trade was taken from a high position and not a pullback. In order to stay in the position I needed to see continued bullish momentum. I wanted to see formations and MA's hold as we trended higher. That broke yesterday.

I don't trade news but there was significant technical damage and this news can spook the market. We hit our first support last night with another support below. I don't' think we can handle a move below $4800 other than a wick. There is a huge volume gap in here and panic selling can get people scrambling to take profit. This means risk is just too high.

The last time we got a tether scare, we pumped for a day then moved sideways for a few weeks then had a 50% drop. So I will wait this out. I have a small short that I will release if we close over $5400 but otherwise, its going to be a precaution against a big move down.