XBTFX

Bitcoin: a reversal?

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
Bank troubles are still in the spotlight of markets, but it seems that it does not have some significant impact on the crypto market, as it had in the beginning. JPMorgan took over troubled First Republic bank during the previous week, while there is still news emerging over potential next banks which could collapse. This is currently the main concern of the equity market, however, as for BTC, this is evidently not going to be an important topic, as many deposit holders moved their deposits from the banks into safer places, like Treasury bills and bonds. Investors and depositors already digested the news, leaving some space for BTC to smoothly revert its price to the downside.

During the previous week, BTC was struggling to test $30K for one more time. There has not been enough market strength for such a move, so the coin reverted a bit to the downside, and levels modestly below $28K. This level has been tested during the week, but there has not been enough selling orders to push the price below it. Weekly price range was from $27.7K up to $29.8K. RSI reached level of 50, and clearly headed toward the downside. This implies that the current market is more oriented toward the oversold side. Moving average of 50 days is still diverging from MA200 counterpart, but slowed down a bit divergence move.

Charts were pointing to a pivotal point for BTC for some time in the past. Price moves from the previous week are showing that the potential for the upside is currently exhausted and that short term reversal is to be expected. Short term stop for BTC is $28K. This line has been tested within the last two weeks. There is still ongoing potential for 25K support to be tested in the coming weeks. In case that market clearly breaks $28K, the price of BTC will head toward the 25K support. On the opposite side, there is a low probability that $30K might be reached once again in the coming week.

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