Overbought conditions continue, and so do ETF inflows

12 Mar

Bitcoin established a new high just below $73,000 before retracing slightly lower. Indicators such as RSI, MACD, and Stochastic continue to point in the bullish direction on the daily time frame. However, the RSI began diverging from the price, which is something to monitor in the foreseeable future. In addition to that, daily, weekly, and monthly time frames are all overbought, supporting the case for a pullback; yet, it is important to note that pullbacks in the past three months were short-lived, with investors rushing to buy the dip. Therefore, in our opinion, a more significant pullback would have to be accompanied by a strong correction in the stock market.

In regard to movements among Bitcoin addresses, there were no significant changes (since our previous update) among any of the particular groups. Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETFs keep seeing money flowing in; here is the recap of particular ETF inflows and outflows since the start of 2024:
- ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) = $1.823,09 billion
- Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) = $1.342,08 billion
- Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC) = -$10.154,88 billion
- Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) = $6.024,74 billion
- Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF (BTCO) = $168,93 million
- iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) = $9.693,18 billion
- VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) = $192.4 million
- WisdomTree Bitcoin Fund (BTCW) = $44,03 million

Illustration 1.01

Illustration 1.01 shows the divergence between the price and RSI on the daily time frame.

Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Bullish
Weekly time frame = Bullish
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of multiple indicators.

Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.

DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.

13 Mar

Catatan

There was no significant change in the number of Bitcoin addresses yesterday.

14 Mar

Catatan

We would like to correct our previous statement about Bitcoin addresses with balances exceeding 1,000 BTC. Unfortunately, we overlooked a significant move to the downside from Sunday to Monday, when the number of large speculators slumped from 2,106 to 2,055 (based on the data from LookIntoBitcoin). This figure ticked higher to 2,077 yesterday. However, it remains significantly down from a February 2024 peak of 2,159. Meanwhile, the number of addresses with balances exceeding 100 BTC continues to rise. As of yesterday, this figure stood at 15,978.