BTC likely to drop to $3000
Diupdate
In my initial post I correctly predicted short from $8400 all the way down to anywhere in $3000 (worst case scenario) - 5000 (best case scenario). You can find that post here:
During the breakdown I underestimated the sell pressure and did not expect to reach $3600 without any real correction upwards.
However, at the moment BTC is forming a rising wedge with a steeper lower line and a less steep upper line. 75% of the times these structure break down and resume downtrend. Imho it is very likely that it will break down since volume is not that high for a bullish wave up. RSI on the 4hr chart is reaching oversold condition, while on smaller timeframes a bearish divergence has formed. I was expecting a correction yesterday down to $3900 which has not happened, it kept increasing. To me this was not healthy, hence why I believe this is a bearish wedge.
Finally, on the weekly chart BTC still has not touched the 200 ma, which I expect at this point to test. RSI on the weekly reached 30 but did not dipped below, again, I expect to briefly dip below 30.
During the breakdown I underestimated the sell pressure and did not expect to reach $3600 without any real correction upwards.
However, at the moment BTC is forming a rising wedge with a steeper lower line and a less steep upper line. 75% of the times these structure break down and resume downtrend. Imho it is very likely that it will break down since volume is not that high for a bullish wave up. RSI on the 4hr chart is reaching oversold condition, while on smaller timeframes a bearish divergence has formed. I was expecting a correction yesterday down to $3900 which has not happened, it kept increasing. To me this was not healthy, hence why I believe this is a bearish wedge.
Finally, on the weekly chart BTC still has not touched the 200 ma, which I expect at this point to test. RSI on the weekly reached 30 but did not dipped below, again, I expect to briefly dip below 30.
Catatan
BTC dropped out of the wedge as predicted. It appears now to be printing a bear flag and should resume dropping once lower time frames RSI and stoch cool off. Things appeared really bullish yesterday, hence why I believed we were in a wedge. Things are too volatile now to be 100% correct but if we drop to $3500 by today or tomorrow then likely it won't hold as a support in the coming days and we should reach our target of 3ooo-$3200. Honestly I think we need to test the 200-ma on the weekly chart before even thinking about bottoming. It is really hard predicting anything at this point since a bit of sell pressure may trigger a panic selling while few bullish candle may cause people to think reversal is incoming and start buying. The magnitude of moves is high. In the mind of people it's like a pendulum swinging on extremes at the moment.
Catatan
looks like bulls are putting up a real fight. They did the same yesterday with $4200 but it eventually broke.Catatan
Bulls made a real push and were able to prevent a breach of support. However I think it’s still headed down. Head and Shoulder failed but BTC is caught between the falling trendline from $6200 and the rising trendline from $3500, so the decision will be made soon maybe even this weekend.Catatan
Idea is still valid. Bear flag in the making right now and odds are high that it will break. Target of the bear flag is around $3776. However, I am seeing both on the daily a bearish setup down to $3000 (next few days or week). I am seeing another bearish setup on the weekly chart that looks very dark and gloomy with target $1800-$2000 but hopefully the 200-ma on the weekly chart provides a good support and bounce. On the weekly chart only closing this week over $5000 can invalidate the bearish setup (to create a morning star pattern). All in all, I believe the $3165 (200-ma as of today) to be a hard support. Could also be a flash crash to touch and bounce this support.Catatan
Bear flag reached its target and it's struggling to maintain $3780 (I called for the drop at $3776). Imho now it can just stay between $3850 and $3720 for the rest of the day, but on bigger timeframes we are still bearish and still headed toward the 200 sma at $3165.Catatan
Price is currently moving in a potential bearish pennant with a target of $3620. If it is truly a bearish pennant then the resolution should come today within 3-4 hours.Catatan
Pennant has been invalidated however it's still in a bearish setup and headed to retest lows of $3500.Catatan
Target of $3165 is almost reached. Should be reached within today. There is a chance that it will drop further.Catatan
Possible that it will reach $3050 but I don't think it will last very long. Shorts were never this high, RSI on the weekly chart is finally oversold and BTC is overstreched. Also there is a bullish divergence on the daily chart. To me, from $6200 to $5200 was the first elliott wave, from $5200 to $5700 was the 2 wave. From $5700 to $3500 was the third impulse wave, $3500 to $4400 was wave 4 and finally $4400 to $3000 is wave 5. Catatan
Guys, I know I don't have a lot of followers, but if you followed my trades since I started posting since July, you would have made as much money as you would do in a bull run. Unlike many other traders here my ideas will always be free. So please like this idea!Catatan
Noticing a lot of buying going on despite the sell pressure. I would have expected a rapid drop after breaching that triangle with lower trendline at $3330, however it did not go as fast as it could have been due to the buying power. I don't think we will fall lower than $3165 (200-ma on weekly chart) but there is always a possibility.
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