#202436 - priceactiontds - weekly update - bitcoin
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
bitcoin: Also as neutral as it gets. Weekly ema completely flat. Bears need a daily close below 56000 and bulls one above 65000. 59000 is the 50% pb of the low 49000 to high 70000 and we are at 58000. Repeat after me: you. don’t. have. any. edge. here.
Quote from last week:
comment: Second atrocious outlook in a row. Will do my best to not make it a third one. Staying away from this for now. Last week we closed at the highs, which was a breakout and past week we are on our way closing at the lows and even went below last weeks low. Market has absolutely no idea where it wants to go. Erratic price action with a absolutely flat weekly ema. 56000 - 64000 is a dead zone to me.
current market cycle: Trading range
key levels: 57000 - 64000
bull case: I won’t even try to come up with something here. Bull breakout and now reversal with lower low below last week. Completely in balance is what bitcoin is.
Invalidation is below 55000.
bear case: Read the bull case.
Invalidation is above 65000.
outlook last week:
→ Last Sunday we traded around 64200 and now we are at 58600. Wrong outlook. Again. Chop from hell.
short term: Neutral and not touching this until a clear strong breakout with follow through.
medium-long term: No text here until next breakout. Can’t hold the bearish outlook when the weekly ema is this flat.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Removed unnecessary lines. Bear trend line from July high is a rough guess.
tl;dr
bitcoin: Also as neutral as it gets. Weekly ema completely flat. Bears need a daily close below 56000 and bulls one above 65000. 59000 is the 50% pb of the low 49000 to high 70000 and we are at 58000. Repeat after me: you. don’t. have. any. edge. here.
Quote from last week:
comment: I still think the pattern last week was bearish enough but the reversal by the bulls just stronger. Surprised me but that’s why I give clear invalidation prices. Losing is part of the game, get good at it. Bulls are now favored to trade higher and potential targets are first 66000 and then 68000. Bears would need a pullback below 60200 for this to fail. I do expect a pullback first before higher prices but I don’t think bears can get below 62000. Only if many other markets also puke.
comment: Second atrocious outlook in a row. Will do my best to not make it a third one. Staying away from this for now. Last week we closed at the highs, which was a breakout and past week we are on our way closing at the lows and even went below last weeks low. Market has absolutely no idea where it wants to go. Erratic price action with a absolutely flat weekly ema. 56000 - 64000 is a dead zone to me.
current market cycle: Trading range
key levels: 57000 - 64000
bull case: I won’t even try to come up with something here. Bull breakout and now reversal with lower low below last week. Completely in balance is what bitcoin is.
Invalidation is below 55000.
bear case: Read the bull case.
Invalidation is above 65000.
outlook last week:
short term: Can only be bullish after the breakout with follow through. 68000 is a decent target but I want a pullback first.
→ Last Sunday we traded around 64200 and now we are at 58600. Wrong outlook. Again. Chop from hell.
short term: Neutral and not touching this until a clear strong breakout with follow through.
medium-long term: No text here until next breakout. Can’t hold the bearish outlook when the weekly ema is this flat.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Removed unnecessary lines. Bear trend line from July high is a rough guess.
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