Warning Bitcoin Megabull Cycle on the Verge of Failure

15 Jan 2016

Full credit initially for this chart goes to JoeBu on TV. He was kind enough to share his initial find with me. I dug more into it and detected the 36 days consolidation/sideways pattern (yellow rectangle) before each megabull cycle started. All those cycles occurred however when Mark Karpeles was in charge of Mt. Gox failed exchange where initially the bot Willy drove the market.

Bears:
Seeing that close to the 36th day of consolidation we are inching lower instead of heading up slowly suggest that the megabull cycle might not occur anymore and that all the previous cycles might have been just the manipulation of Mark Karpeles back then with his bot. Why on earth could we have really repeated the pattern afterall? If we fail to bounce from $400 upwards on the current drop then we will head lower and wash down to $348 initially. If volatility picks up then we will hit $325-315 and with max volatility I expect $275.

Bear targets summary:
$400
$348
$325-315
$275 (achievable with max volatility)

Bulls:
If however our current ongoing drop goes to $400 which behaves as support and provides a bounce up back to $440++ then their might still be a chance for the megabull cycle to occur. However I find this unlikely given the previous patterns yet not entirely impossible.

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15 Jan 2016

Trade aktif

On top of this looks like Crypsty exchange has been dead for 1 month just divulged that it has been hacked and all the coins stolen check out the Crypsty blog --> crd.ht/BDQfU7e .

15 Jan 2016

Catatan

Also Mike Hearn bearish article might have contributed to this reversal for the bears today, "Mike Hearn the Bitcoin Believer Who Gave Up "slow transactions will drive away users and lead to a price collapse" crd.ht/EbEqtPf

15 Jan 2016

Catatan

Ultra-bearish blog post from Mike Hearn destroying Bitcoin and calling it a failure as an experiment -> crd.ht/BbXfNa2

Interesting as 2-3 months ago Satoshi old account published a similar theme claiming Bitcoin failed as an expirement.

15 Jan 2016

Catatan

$400 support blown, Bitfinex reached $392.
Double top 500/470 confirmed similar to 1170/980, 680/660 tops.
Bear cycle confirmed, megabull cycles fails. Unfortunately this is pretty bearish.

16 Jan 2016

Catatan

Second target close to be reached on Bitfinex @ $357 and Okcoin USD @ $355

I am still expecting $327-317 area to be hit.

News:
Video Leaked of #Bankers yesterday meeting. Mentioning paid article to be published soon to kill #Bitcoin. Looks like Bitcoiners were fighting Bankers. We are a threat to them and their corrupt/flawed system! Hearns must have been paid to turn against Bitcoin. Video to watch --> crd.ht/3kkPXXF

18 Jan 2016

Catatan

My second support of $350 held so far. The market refused to go lower for now.
Bitfinex hit: $352.5
Okcoin.com Spot: $351.26

Bear in mind, for the market to have a slight chance for the megabull to occur has passed, the likeliness of a megabull to occur is less than %20 imo for the below reasons:

1. Double top at 500/470 with a long chance for the bulls to break up 1 month ++
2. Megabulls in the past resolved up after 36 days of consolidation. In our last recent case, this 36 days consolidation resolved down instead for the FIRST TIME EVER for Bitcoin
3. My 4th touch of death bearish scenario occurred at $425 - see my previous chart explaining this phenomenon in BTC (we went below or touched $425 3 times - triple bottom, on the 4th visit we broke down with a $100 wash out from 450 to 350)
4. We have a new set of ATH added now as 500/470 (confirmed by breaking down from $400 see my tweet) compared to 1170/980, 680/660.
5. If the bulls were able to pump back this sell-off from 350 up above 415 within 2 days then it would have been a trap wick and the bulls would have conitnued that huge huge cup that we have been forming for more than a year in a round bottom.

On that note, I am leaning cautiously bearish until April - July 2016 and until that community division with the block size / transactions gets resolved. Imo their will not be a megabull until this is resolved.

What's next in my opinion, of the below scenario:
A. If you have followed my twitter you would know I have compared and followed the comparison between Gold and Bitcoin for a while. I called $350 the bottom and so far it has worked. What's next?

18 Jan 2016

Catatan

A. The most likely scenario - Continued - The #Bitcoin #Gold chart if it plays out: 350 > $390-400 were here now > we now go down to $350 ( I think 355-368 more likely) > $425-414 > $325 > $414 > $340 >$400 > $370 > $275 > $315 > $250 > $315

B. We break down from $350 and head to my third target at $314-327 find support and consolidate, accumulate and create a pump to $414 then back down to $315 (our new range will be 315-414)

C. We break down from $350 and wash down to my lowest target of $275 (wick) and go back up to $300-315 and consolidate up there, accumulate and create a pump to $414 then back down to $315 (our new range will be 315-414)

20 Jan 2016

Catatan

I wanted to wait few days before I issue an update - Bitcoin is stuck in sideways, but my worry now is that the minute we get close to that bear channel here prntscr.com/9sdcy5 we will be heading down. Reason is simple, the bulls still did not take advantage and pumped Bitcoin far from the bottom of the giant cup we have established (round bottom) since 2014. Hence an initial visit to 350-360 and a wash down to 315 and even 275-250 is still likely by January 20-25 - i will update and publish a new chart soon when i get a confirmation:

Huge triangles of all the triangles = zoomed out - prntscr.com/9sd4pk
Zoomed in, we have a big bear channel to break still - prntscr.com/9sd5f1

Negative articles calling Bitcoin dead will lead to the bear market gaining momentum imo:

BBC - January 19 - Bitcoin: Is the cryptocurrency doomed? - Full Article -> crd.ht/GDYtHCj
Washington Post - January 19 - R.I.P. Bitcoin. It’s time to move on - Full Article -> crd.ht/2NNyXeB

20 Jan 2016

Catatan

Bitcoin reversed route earlier this morning on ETH and MS Azure bullish news + PBOC badly translated article talking about China thinking of adopting virtual currencies. However, the bad translation was then referred to in a Reuters Article to be China PBOC creating its OWN set of virtual currencies instead. Still the Bitcoin Market is deciding to reverse route and go bullish as long as we stay above $425 of course.

There might be still a slight hope for the megabull cycle:

28 Jan 2016

Trade aktif

Hello All,

New forecast and predictive analysis published! :)