BTC/USD 4H/1D charts (12/04/2018)
Diupdate
Good morning, traders. Bitcoin continues to ride the resistance line from the 6000s and is currently sitting just under the McGinley Dynamic. Not a whole lot has changed and the targets from yesterday remain valid today (review yesterday's linked analysis). The 4H RSI did break out bullishly from its descending wedge, though, and is currently sitting just under bullish at 46.5. I have drawn one more solid black line of resistance. A breach of this should have price moving definitely bullishly for the time.
The 4H pivot sits at $4010 and a close above that should encourage more bullish activity. MACD is nearing a bullish cross, but if it does then it is likely that we will see hidden bearish divergence print sooner rather than later unless we see a flurry of buying activity that sends price above $4234.16 quickly. Moving above that level will pull price bullishly out of the green wedge and blue channel while setting up a showdown with the brown wedge's resistance. Remember, the latter is the one I am most interested in at this time, and a successful breach of it should have price targeting $5250/$5300.
The 1D RSI is currently printing bullish divergence between 11/30 and 12/3, albeit a bit weak. As long as price closes at the day where it is or higher, that divergence should be locked in. A bullish divergence on the daily should have price rising a few hundred dollars at least. This would see price bullishly breaking out of the patterns noted above. We can clearly see a large flag printing on this TF so the expectation should be that price moves up rather than down. That doesn't mean that it is necessarily doing a full-on reversal, just that we should expect to see it play out like any other flag pattern at any other time in the market for now. The target based on this pattern's flagpole is the previous S4 pivot (blue price tool) at $4900-$4940. Doing so also brings price near the lower green price tool target based on the previous descending channel. OBV has continued to rise on this TF which is good as it indicates that volume and price are in agreement for now.
All this being as it is, price finds the same problem on the 1D that it does on the 4H and that is the hidden bearish divergence that is printing. Two days ago, MACD's histogram was slightly higher than yesterday's and today's is much higher than the one from two days ago. So we see higher highs in the histogram and lower highs in price so far between 12/2 and today. This hidden bearish divergence can be avoided if price pushes above the 12/2 high of $4265 by the end of the day. If so, then price can likely avoid the larger hidden bearish divergence between 11/7 and today. But I'm not completely convinced there's enough strength in this short term hidden bearish divergence to overcome the longer term one mentioned, so traders should remain on their toes. The multitude of bullish patterns printing within each other along major resistance right now is the big plus on the bullish side. I really want to see a close above the 11/29 swing high at $4409.77 to feel a bit more bullish at this time. A close above the 1D pivot/1.272 fib extension at $4665 should have price facing resistance at the equilibrium of the yellow zone/1.414 fib extension at $4800 before heading higher to complete the targets. Lower targets, if price breaks down from here, are mentioned in yesterday's update.
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
The 4H pivot sits at $4010 and a close above that should encourage more bullish activity. MACD is nearing a bullish cross, but if it does then it is likely that we will see hidden bearish divergence print sooner rather than later unless we see a flurry of buying activity that sends price above $4234.16 quickly. Moving above that level will pull price bullishly out of the green wedge and blue channel while setting up a showdown with the brown wedge's resistance. Remember, the latter is the one I am most interested in at this time, and a successful breach of it should have price targeting $5250/$5300.
The 1D RSI is currently printing bullish divergence between 11/30 and 12/3, albeit a bit weak. As long as price closes at the day where it is or higher, that divergence should be locked in. A bullish divergence on the daily should have price rising a few hundred dollars at least. This would see price bullishly breaking out of the patterns noted above. We can clearly see a large flag printing on this TF so the expectation should be that price moves up rather than down. That doesn't mean that it is necessarily doing a full-on reversal, just that we should expect to see it play out like any other flag pattern at any other time in the market for now. The target based on this pattern's flagpole is the previous S4 pivot (blue price tool) at $4900-$4940. Doing so also brings price near the lower green price tool target based on the previous descending channel. OBV has continued to rise on this TF which is good as it indicates that volume and price are in agreement for now.
All this being as it is, price finds the same problem on the 1D that it does on the 4H and that is the hidden bearish divergence that is printing. Two days ago, MACD's histogram was slightly higher than yesterday's and today's is much higher than the one from two days ago. So we see higher highs in the histogram and lower highs in price so far between 12/2 and today. This hidden bearish divergence can be avoided if price pushes above the 12/2 high of $4265 by the end of the day. If so, then price can likely avoid the larger hidden bearish divergence between 11/7 and today. But I'm not completely convinced there's enough strength in this short term hidden bearish divergence to overcome the longer term one mentioned, so traders should remain on their toes. The multitude of bullish patterns printing within each other along major resistance right now is the big plus on the bullish side. I really want to see a close above the 11/29 swing high at $4409.77 to feel a bit more bullish at this time. A close above the 1D pivot/1.272 fib extension at $4665 should have price facing resistance at the equilibrium of the yellow zone/1.414 fib extension at $4800 before heading higher to complete the targets. Lower targets, if price breaks down from here, are mentioned in yesterday's update.
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
Catatan
Here is yesterday's analysis with targets as mentioned above:
Pernyataan Penyangkalan
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