Sorry BTC, but that, is Out of Bounds.
Diupdate
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BTC/USD CoinBase, WEEKLY Chart.
EMA 21 = Orange
Green = SMA 50
Yellow = SMA 100
Green Rectangle = Best case scenario trading range.
Purple = Great value for DCA.
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BTC appears to have broke it's immediate uptrend and broken below the Weekly EMA 21. There is little chance the bulls close above it, but if they do, they still need to retest the ATH and possibly challenge the previous trend line.
While there is a chance, based on the US Feds wanting to taper faster and sooner, and the US stock market has barely begun to pull back, I doubt it happens.
I give the bullish scenario a 2% chance of happening. If this were the case, I might personally take some profits just around 59,850 - 59,950 range to avoid having to hold for full losses if the super bullish scenario to break the previous all time high fails.
A bit more sensible approach might also include buys at 45,000.00 and 35,000.00. I might leave those open orders with the hope to have them filled, just to hold more BTC in the future.
Everything seems great, but there is one last tidbit... Any break of 28,000.00 would send a retest possibly of 18,000.00 to 20,000.00. If that risk sounds fine, do with this information what you will.
Additional indicators supporting bearish scenario are the Bearish divergences on both the RSI 14 and MACD. The Weekly MACD crossing into red territory. The RSI has not shown a V or any type of recovery, so there is still the oversold scenario and as you can imagine, if it's not oversold yet, how red can it look? Only with time can we be 100% certain.
With that said, None of this is financial advice and I have decided to return to chart purely to challenge myself and improve. I hope to release one update and possibly one trade idea each week going forward. Do with this information what you will.
Good Luck to everyone out there and may your chart moon more than Luna.
BTC/USD CoinBase, WEEKLY Chart.
EMA 21 = Orange
Green = SMA 50
Yellow = SMA 100
Green Rectangle = Best case scenario trading range.
Purple = Great value for DCA.
==========================================
BTC appears to have broke it's immediate uptrend and broken below the Weekly EMA 21. There is little chance the bulls close above it, but if they do, they still need to retest the ATH and possibly challenge the previous trend line.
While there is a chance, based on the US Feds wanting to taper faster and sooner, and the US stock market has barely begun to pull back, I doubt it happens.
I give the bullish scenario a 2% chance of happening. If this were the case, I might personally take some profits just around 59,850 - 59,950 range to avoid having to hold for full losses if the super bullish scenario to break the previous all time high fails.
A bit more sensible approach might also include buys at 45,000.00 and 35,000.00. I might leave those open orders with the hope to have them filled, just to hold more BTC in the future.
Everything seems great, but there is one last tidbit... Any break of 28,000.00 would send a retest possibly of 18,000.00 to 20,000.00. If that risk sounds fine, do with this information what you will.
Additional indicators supporting bearish scenario are the Bearish divergences on both the RSI 14 and MACD. The Weekly MACD crossing into red territory. The RSI has not shown a V or any type of recovery, so there is still the oversold scenario and as you can imagine, if it's not oversold yet, how red can it look? Only with time can we be 100% certain.
With that said, None of this is financial advice and I have decided to return to chart purely to challenge myself and improve. I hope to release one update and possibly one trade idea each week going forward. Do with this information what you will.
Good Luck to everyone out there and may your chart moon more than Luna.
Catatan
Catatan
Update: BTC/USD Weekly. So far the price action has confirmed a consolidation and rejection to pass above the Weekly EMA 21. Expect the price action to remain in consolidation in the green square range for now...
However, do pay attention to the S&P 500 and Fed meeting next week. If there is negative news about a faster taper or increased interest rates, expect that the possibility of BTC reaching the purple value zone quite quickly.
If the news is neutral or good and stonks in general find support, expect the possibility of another move up to retest the EMA 21 or prices above.
Either way, get ready, and buckle up.
Catatan
Update: BTC/USD Weekly. The price action is hovering near the 50 SMA and appears to be waiting on the SPY this upcoming week. The price action might retest the 50SM and flirt with some of the lower prices. Unless Stocks do bad in general, expect a further consolidation, with potentially more range bound trading.
However, if Stocks do poorly, there is a 50% chance the purple value prices are seen before the end of the year.
Again, always have your Seat Belt on.
[Stop limits and Value Limit Buy Orders]
Catatan
=-BTC/USD DAILY=-
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Price Action - Appears to be at support in a pivot zone. Keep in mind there are two resistances that form market confluence, diagonal resistance and the $45,000.00 resistance level. If BTC can clear both, expect that it can and will reclaim the previous green consolidation zone.
Plan - Keep DCA, Keep bids low just incase of high volatility and a long squeeze.
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