BTC - 36675 and 56200 are the key levels to watch
I have 3 scenarios that im watching for here, 1 bullish and 2 bearish (these two are basically the same, just different paths)
The bullish scenario: This is the green count which would be minor wave 4 to wave 5, of intermediate wave 1 (not shown) of primary wave 5 (in orange)
This count assumes that from April 14 to June 22 was a 3 wave ABC move down to complete primary wave 4 (orange) around $28700, and now we have begun primary wave 5 which would take us to at least 90k as we finish off this bull run. On the short term, this could would take us anywhere from 45-50k *IF* we can hold $36675. This is a a crucial level, as it is the minor wave 1 high. Below this we invalidate this count (there is a chance this would still be valid if we consider this is a leading diagonal to begin intermediate wave 1 of primary wave 5, but for simplicity im going to assume bearish below this level)
IF we hold above 36675, then im expecting top side targets of 45-50k to complete the minor green count and give us intermediate wave 1 of primary wave 5.
The bearish scenario: This is the white WXY and the yellow 5 wave impulsive structure. Both lead us lower, anywhere from 21.5k-24k. If we are heading further down, we will need to see further price action to settle our probability cloud and determine exactly what path this move will take.
If this is a complex correction, as the white WXY count shows, it would still lead to a short term bounce as we would currently be in the X wave which could top out anywhere between $47850 and $56000 before turning to the downside. I wouldn't be bearish on BTC unless and until we have a clear rejection to establish a local top.
The second bearish scenario would be a prolonged impulsive wave shown in yellow. Im not sure how to really read this, but the fib levels have been spot on, so i've put this count here just to see what happens...this could be the first leg of a 5-3-5 zigzag, which could see us hit 19-21 k before we bounce from the 2017 high. If we cross down that previous high, then i'll start believing the "crypto is a scam, BTC to zero" folks, but i think there's a very good chance we see retail and institutions offer strong support below 20k. This could eventually play out as a downtrend to 19k, followed by a strong bounce and then a rejection under 60k to fall back down back to 19k or lower.....but that's too far out to really get a clear picture on right now. All i can say at this moment is that the down trend since April 14 top has followed a 5 wave EW structure pretty accurately so far but i could always be reading it wrong.
TL;DR
I know this is a big wall of conjecture so basically this is what im looking for:
If BTC < 36675, get out and wait for resolution at or below 28k.
if BTC > 36675, 45k-50k are my targets
If BTC > 56200, the bearish count is likely out the window and we are on our way to new ATH....buy all you can and HODL till 90k.
The bullish scenario: This is the green count which would be minor wave 4 to wave 5, of intermediate wave 1 (not shown) of primary wave 5 (in orange)
This count assumes that from April 14 to June 22 was a 3 wave ABC move down to complete primary wave 4 (orange) around $28700, and now we have begun primary wave 5 which would take us to at least 90k as we finish off this bull run. On the short term, this could would take us anywhere from 45-50k *IF* we can hold $36675. This is a a crucial level, as it is the minor wave 1 high. Below this we invalidate this count (there is a chance this would still be valid if we consider this is a leading diagonal to begin intermediate wave 1 of primary wave 5, but for simplicity im going to assume bearish below this level)
IF we hold above 36675, then im expecting top side targets of 45-50k to complete the minor green count and give us intermediate wave 1 of primary wave 5.
The bearish scenario: This is the white WXY and the yellow 5 wave impulsive structure. Both lead us lower, anywhere from 21.5k-24k. If we are heading further down, we will need to see further price action to settle our probability cloud and determine exactly what path this move will take.
If this is a complex correction, as the white WXY count shows, it would still lead to a short term bounce as we would currently be in the X wave which could top out anywhere between $47850 and $56000 before turning to the downside. I wouldn't be bearish on BTC unless and until we have a clear rejection to establish a local top.
The second bearish scenario would be a prolonged impulsive wave shown in yellow. Im not sure how to really read this, but the fib levels have been spot on, so i've put this count here just to see what happens...this could be the first leg of a 5-3-5 zigzag, which could see us hit 19-21 k before we bounce from the 2017 high. If we cross down that previous high, then i'll start believing the "crypto is a scam, BTC to zero" folks, but i think there's a very good chance we see retail and institutions offer strong support below 20k. This could eventually play out as a downtrend to 19k, followed by a strong bounce and then a rejection under 60k to fall back down back to 19k or lower.....but that's too far out to really get a clear picture on right now. All i can say at this moment is that the down trend since April 14 top has followed a 5 wave EW structure pretty accurately so far but i could always be reading it wrong.
TL;DR
I know this is a big wall of conjecture so basically this is what im looking for:
If BTC < 36675, get out and wait for resolution at or below 28k.
if BTC > 36675, 45k-50k are my targets
If BTC > 56200, the bearish count is likely out the window and we are on our way to new ATH....buy all you can and HODL till 90k.
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