Continued prediction based on May to Aug 2017 pattern repeat
Immediately following a breakout of the downward resistance trend on May 2, 2017, the price of Bitcoin moved through an up-up-down-up (pink-red-pink boxes) pattern, ultimately ending at a new high on Aug 15, 2017. The two purple boxes established a new resistance trend, which held until Nov 23, 2017, when a breakout of that downward trend then occurred.
This analysis considers what happens if the recent breakout from resistance is throwing the market into the same pattern as the previous breakout did, assuming that Bitcoin is in an exponential trend of valuation growth.
Details
In the first pattern, in units of , the slopes of the boxes are: 2.6 (pink), -1.1 (red), 4.7 (pink).
So far in the second patten, the slopes of the boxes are: 5.6 (pink), -1.7 (red). Assuming a constant growth in slope in each of the respective boxes between patterns 1 and 2, the slope of the next pink box is likely to be 9.7. If the next pink box unfolds over, say 35 days (all boxes so far have had periods between 24 and 41 days), this yields a 339% gain over the last pink box, which puts Bitcoin price at 40,000 USD in the later half of February.
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This analysis considers what happens if the recent breakout from resistance is throwing the market into the same pattern as the previous breakout did, assuming that Bitcoin is in an exponential trend of valuation growth.
Details
In the first pattern, in units of , the slopes of the boxes are: 2.6 (pink), -1.1 (red), 4.7 (pink).
So far in the second patten, the slopes of the boxes are: 5.6 (pink), -1.7 (red). Assuming a constant growth in slope in each of the respective boxes between patterns 1 and 2, the slope of the next pink box is likely to be 9.7. If the next pink box unfolds over, say 35 days (all boxes so far have had periods between 24 and 41 days), this yields a 339% gain over the last pink box, which puts Bitcoin price at 40,000 USD in the later half of February.
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Corrections:
- "...which held until Nov 23, 2017, when a breakout of that resistance trend then occurred."
- "In the first pattern, in units of % change / days, the slopes of the boxes are: 2.6 (pink), -1.1 (red), 4.7 (pink)."
