Recently I made an analysis where I compared Bitcoin's current price action with the summer'21 bear market. See below for a complete overview. I was assuming that we already had point 4, but that was not the case. Now that we're testing the wick, we can make a better case for being in point 4 now.
As mentioned in the previous post, there was a decent chance that we were going to re-test the area around the capitulation wick, the violet line. Fun fact; the wick re-test occurred around the same time as it did in the summer'21 bear market, 32.5 days versus 34 days.
Yesterday we saw a major flush towards the area around the wick, which is still holding. In case of a bounce, I'm targeting the violet area for a potential exit. Be aware that we might still drop further, fractals are never 100% identical. In case of a substantial drop below 40k we can assume that we're not following the summer'21 fractal and the analysis will get invalidated.
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