Diupdate

BTC - Way to 2200$

I selected a lineal scale, not a log scale.

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Catatan

I expect it can take two ways: or go up until 9600 or enventually go down thanks to bear action

Catatan

It's in a ascending broadening wedge that can eventually break up or break down. I think it's breaking down but I can be wrong.

Catatan

I have added the uperline of the uptrend channel that's running longterm, you can also see the underline of this channel.

Catatan

The bears are trying to take it down

Catatan

Descending triangle

Catatan

It's at the grey line, trying to go down to the black line. But it can also go up to the red line. I have no clue, but I'm more at the bearish side.

Catatan

My guess:

Catatan

We're hitting huge resistance, it can easily breakdown.

(Remember we are on a crash pattern)

Catatan

8.5 can act as support or as resistance. Which one will it be?

Catatan

we see that the bears are pushing it down following my "more likely" scenario.

Catatan

As we can see it took the green path until 8900 during the begin of the weekend, just where our first green bar ends. For me it was too risky to trady because there was no clue what the market was going to do, it's in range mode.

Catatan

I believe there is more room for it to go down, as always, because we're in a downtrend. But it can move across the red bar and the yellow bar, being the last one a possible future bottom. It will attempt several times to go up, being the selling zone between the grey and red bar, and the buying zone between the black and the yellow bar.

Catatan

We are reaching an important level where bears are trying to push the price more down, but bulls are resisting hard. We need to see some bullish indicators before pulling the trigger to buy and sell it at a more expensive price. We can see price is hovering around the black bar, a crucial support.

Catatan

Nice bounce into resistance.

Catatan

reyected at the resistance. Sign that we're going down

Catatan

Bulls are doing a great effort to push the price up. Let's see where this ends.

Catatan

I think it's more likely to break up but I'm not sure.

Catatan

I identified the different resistances and supports. The question now is: will 7800 act as support or will it break down? If it breaks down, we will need to find others supports in order to scalp. If it breaks up, we will need to find resistances targets to sell. Our main scenario is still bearish (in a downtrend).

Catatan

Still locally uptrending to hit the final resistances. I think it can go more up.

Catatan

There are bearish signs so the uptrend won't last forever, I anticipate a huge breakdown since 3-4 April to a lower low for about 3 weeks: target 4000$, but retesting everytime the resistances and supports. Nice for scalping!

Catatan

Finaly it took the path to break down supports!! I wasn't surprised, it will slowly get to 4k in my opinion

Catatan

Locally it's fighting to stay in the down-trend channel that we find between the upper black bar and the middle black bar.

Catatan

We see it broke support, it got back to test that 7200 and got reyected. Now we're are at a important support that can be broken, it's trying.

Catatan

The yellow line would be a possible support for a bounce, but I'm looking a bit further in case it get's broken to even a lower low, the lines where "Huge support" is written is expected to be the area for a great bounce to happen. There we would have a capitulation phase. Short it and get into the anger phase. After that we would have depression phase.

Catatan

Approaching moment for correction (wyckoff theory)

Catatan

It bounced at the black downward trend line. :)

Catatan

All the attempts that tried to push the Price up got reyected, when will it finally succeed?? I think a later.

Catatan

According to my plan, we're only 2.5 k aprox. from that bottom for redistribution...

Catatan

First bearish sign!

Catatan

2nd bearish sign!

Catatan

And it went down.

Catatan

Bulls trying to push it up but it get's reyected. Wating for a re-distribution at a target that's between 4k and 5k.

Catatan

Bulls are getting reyected at the grey line.

Catatan

Will we adventure a panic scenario til 5k?

Catatan

Bulls are doing great effort to push the Price higher and put in some hope. Seems to me like a redistribution phase of Wyckoff that happens during the markdown.

Trade aktif

SHORT.

If your main scenario is downwards, don't change it at the last minute. I think we're abandoning LOCALLY the redistribution phase of wyckoff theory, and heading toward correction. (Taking as reference the top from 11,5k where the distribution happened, after that happened the throwback, and now the redistribution is just getting finished).

BUT LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE!!, and taking as top 20k (where the "BIG" distribution happened), you can also find wyckoff analysis and now we would be heading toward redistribution (AT 4.5K aprox would be the bottom of it), after that there would come a correction phase at around 2.5k (second bottom).

I'm thinking of closing my short at 4.5 or 2.5k, I just need time to think about it.

Catatan

We need to see if it breaks support.

Trade aktif

Still at the support area, but getting difficulties at keeping on it. "Hoping it to break down this resistance."Short trade still active.

Catatan

Expecting it to break the grey line and heading toward the first black line where I think it will find resistance again.

Trading ditutup secara manual

6700 is acting like a big support, and because it is too risky to keep here a position, I have decided to wait in fiat for wathever the market decides to do. If it goes up, I don't expect it to go very high, but it will offer better prices to short.

Catatan

Shorts getting squezed.

Catatan

We're getting our first bearish signs.

Catatan

If me remain in the actual channel of the beartrend, I think now it's a good entry for a short. Nevertheless, I'm waiting until it reaches 7600-7700 to enter my short position.

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