BTC Weekly Chart - Long term - 9/4/18

4 Sep 2018

On the weekly chart, we can see that BTCUSD is testing to break out of the downward trend line (white dashed line) after bouncing from 6k support for the 4th time this bear market. There are 2 scenarios that I see possible:
1.) BTCUSD breaks out of the downward trend line (+$7500) and faces the next test at major resistance level of $8500
2.) BTCUSD fails to break out of the downward trend line (+$7500) and will re-test the support at 6k again

Watching the volume here if BTCUSD can get above $7500 there should be ensuing high volume to confirm the breakout is legit. If you are trading, I would sell if $7500 is not broken convincingly as 6k would likely be the target again.

In conclusion, BTCUSD is attempting to break out of the bearish downtrend for the 4th time this bear market. We cannot predict it will happen this time but we are watching the action to see if it happens now or not. If a break above the downtrend white line at $7500 or a higher high above $8500 does not occur, 6k retest will be very likely. We hope for continued bullish action so BTC can confirm the bottom is in and a new multi-month bull run can begin.

5 Sep 2018

Catatan

So far, it seems that scenario #2 is playing out. BTCUSD is failing to break out of the downward trend line (white dashed line) at $7500. We have a small support at $6800 where we can potentially base at or just break through to the strong support at $6000 again. If we were to base at $6800 and confirm the support there, I can see us making a second attempt at breaking the downward trend line. Otherwise, we will surely hit $6000 again and test it as support for the 5th time this bear market.