W Bottom failed, Turned into a Bearish or Bullish Triangle?

Diupdate

The double bottom pattern was already in danger because it was taking too long, now it's officially off the table. I am not sure if it were the Bart move people who stopped the price at 3500 or that it was just the market, but i have some signs (when looking back the past hour) that my first assumption that they are back in the game again might not be wrong. I will show that later or make it an educational post even. I think i will try to do that tomorrow. As i mentioned it before, i really hope i am wrong about this, but just in case, i want to show everyone the very clear pattern they use, hoping this leak might go away because of that :)

That triangle i kept showing today, from which it seemed like we broke out of it, is most probably still in play because of this drop. If the current support (3380ish) brakes, i see 3 options happening:

1:, Make a higher low around 3330/50 and if it turns up there with decent volume it might break upwards. Needs high volume with the breakout of the triangle, otherwise simply assume it will drop again sooner or later. Volume has played an extremely important part the lately.
2: We test the 3300ish again, get a fake (small) bounce and turn down and break that green support. If it goes like that, and we see some volume at the break, we can expect a big fast dump to happen towards 2800. Which might make that daily bullish wedge in play again i showed a while back. The 3200/50 has been a support as well during the weekend, so it could be the last support
3: The support at 3200/3300 looked very real to me the past days, so if we start to see some wicks again in that area, as we have seen before, it could mean that support was real and was not only there to shake out bears. Than we can still see a move up, but i am not confident about this scenario, since the current attempt failed already.

If you remember from my previous analysis, where i mentioned those big spoof sell order on Bitmex that pushed down the price below the 3300. Below the 3300 there were a lot of buy orders waiting to get filled. That moment made me talk about that double bottom scenario. Thinking the whales showed their hand there. This together with the previous wicks in that 3200/3300 gave me confidence to think we will move up. It did, but did not even get close to the 3600 and got stopped hard at 3500.

So my best guess is, making a higher low like scenario 1 or see high volume wicks at lower prices above 3300/3280. Otherwise it will be scenario 2.

I have a fractal up my sleeve, but i am not ready yet to post it. I will show it AFTER the first move has been set. I have my reasons for this. Not even my own members or VIP's even get to see it. So be patient :). Even if it fails i will show it you, so you know it's not bait or anything.

Previous analysis:

Another Double Bottom for Bitcoin? Part 2

Catatan

So far there is a chance the lower high scenario might be playing out, but still a long way to go of course. It could even be another smaller triangle as you can see. So towards 3430 and down again. I would be very careful with this 3600/3200 range.

Catatan

Lower high should have been higher low :)

Catatan

Things are taking a lot of time again and it seems today's high has been quite the resistance so far. So from the looks of it we could make a (small) drop again and test the lows now.

Catatan

Now we could be seeing buying support again. Unless the sell volume is too high. I am not at home now so I can not judge it. If the sell volume is very high, support will likely break. Otherwise this zone is a support zone

Catatan

Still no bounce at the moment, not even a small one. So nothing bullish at the moment

Catatan

Looks like a real bear flag there on the right. But on the left it looks like we are inside a channel. This channel could be a coincidence though but we are testing it as we speak. So if the current low holds around 3200, could be this channel is valid. If the bear flag is valid, the target is around 3100

Catatan

And out of nowhere the rescue team of the 3200 zone popped up again, just as it was about to break. Now this can be:

- A Bart move, if we move sideways for many more hours around 3300/3150
- Just a small shake out of over leveraged traders and drop again sooner or later
- If the bulls keep it above the 3260/50 the coming few minutes, we can see another jump up.

I don't have the answer, but you know what i think about the 3200 zone

Catatan

An extra fractal update

Catatan

The bull flag is already taking too long. Have seen these bullflags after a squeeze like this fail many times already. So we could be testing the lows again soon

Catatan

Starting to feel like a Barty Bart will be coming today, not sure yet, since they are difficult to read

Catatan

If it is a Bart, we are closing in now. Than it should not drop much more

Catatan

We should be in the blue on the right and yellow on the left if this is a Bart

Catatan

For a normal Bart it has dropped too much already. At the moment still no bounce so it looks like a small bear flag that will make another move down. Unless it’s a small triangle with a 40 point target below the previous one

Catatan

Been away most of the day, so could not make good updates. The Bart failed obviously, dropped a bit too much. I thought i gave an update here as well about that bear flag being a possible triangle which would mean 3050 or a smaal 30/40 point drop below the previous low. Clearly the last one happened. It was also a small bullish wedge btw. Now we have a bull flag after this short squeeze, but it's already not an very nice one.

On this chart, it seems we are back in side that channel again. I was not sure about it yesterday, but since we dropped below it, tested the bottom as resistance before that last drop and now back in again, it seems to be valid.

On the right we can see another bullish wedge. It looks like we are above it and testing the support now. But to be honest the volume picture is not really confirming that wedge. But when staying above the 3200ish, we could still another wave up.

We can also see that red resistance zone, which is a clear resistance level from the previous support zone. So a break of this level could mean another move up could happen, possibly even towards the 3400. But if the bulls fail to brake it, it will probably be the same as we had with yesterday's squeeze, the yellow circle.

Catatan

I see now i did mention the 40 point drop here as well :)

Catatan

Here we can see a difference, the short squeeze earlier yesterday from the 3160 to 3300 was done in three 3 minutes, the rally from a few hours ago was 110 points, so 35/30 points less, but happened in 14 min.

Anyway, the first one was a short squeeze, the second was also for a part but since it was not a quick squeeze we can assume it was mostly buying. Still doesn't say a lot, but certainly worth mentioning. If we do see another wave up now above the 3300, it will probably be very meaningful. I think the current 3220 has to break to prevent a lower high. Otherwise the bigger bull flag that could still be formed on a higher time frame, will probably fail because they have a very bad succes rate.

Catatan

While it started to drop it has made an unconfirmed higher low which has resulted in what seems a (ascending) triangle. The 3220 is just got rejected again, so if the bulls can hold the support of the triangle and push through the 3220/30 we should see another move up towards 3320. A downward break would mean we can test 3150 or drop even more of course

Catatan

If it breaks out, it needs much more volume than this as well

Catatan

A lot of weakness, bulls or not taking their chances. The triangle never worked, the bull flag as mentioned failed again, even though it did look promising earlier today.

On the right it looks like a solid bullish wedge, the volume is confirming it, the shape of the wedge also pretty decent but the position of the wedge is almost perfect as well.

It's target is around 3250. So we could see another retest of former support.

OI on Bitmex went up 25 mil since yesterday, so with the current drop from 3220 to 3140 people have been loading up longs again (and shorts of course). It looks like one of both will be used as fuel to create a squeeze. For me personally, if there is one thing i hate to do is, shorting the lows or going long at the highs. If i missed the decent entry i simply missed. But with the current increase of OI, it shows again that many people don't care about it.

Catatan

On Bitfinex we can see it is not a wedge. On the right we can also see that H&S i have been asked about by many people. For me an H&S is an reversal pattern, at these spots i don't treat them like an H&S but as that triangle i showed in my original chart.
We can see the target is around 3050 (bitfinex price), but look at the volume profile, it does not confirm the H&S IMO. It should have been much more. So it feels more like a bear trap than anything else. However, the bulls are not showing any real signs as well. Only that bullish wedge from the previous update, which indicates accumulation on that time frame.

Also when you look on the chart on the left (bitmex and finex) you can see how the volume is decreasing as well the since the low on the 26th. Also shows Bears are loosing strength. Only bearish sign i can give on the volume part, is that there are simply now buyers and that bears are waiting for buy volume to sell in to.

So it's not very clear, only thing clear to me is, when being flat here, shorting at this level is asking for big troubles, when having a short from earlier this week.

Both sides should not forget, it's weekend again, so volume is always lower and manipulation always higher. So just don't get trapped, no matter which side you choose

Catatan

When zooming in a bit, it could be a small bearish 50 point triangle on the right.
On the left we can see that channel again, where the price is once again bumping against the former support, like we did a few days ago. Could just be a coincidence though

Catatan

Here we can see the open longs/shorts on Bitfinex. Longs are increasing again, so there are some believing in the low is being set here. But when we look at the past half year, it's quite easy to say that these bulls have been wrong most of the time. Shorts are increasing again as well. So there is probably a big move about to happen, because both sides offer fuel, for a short or long squeeze

Catatan

That was something just now, there was a 10 mill sell order on Bitfinex, instead of spoofing, it stayed for a few seconds. After some market buys (nothing big, just like 1/2 mil) it disappeared again. So Bitmex bears getting desperate maybe?

Catatan

the 3160 has been rejected many times now. The 3120 as well for the bears. So a break of on of these 2 levels should give us a decent move

Catatan

Looks like a break of the wedge is about to happen, just not convinced about the volume. Going a bit slow at the moment

Catatan

Breakout but no follow through yet, also no volume yet. I think the bulls need to keep momentum here otherwise it will prob fail. So above 3170, maybe 3150 could also still work

Catatan

Here we can see that channel worked as it did the previous time. Of course it doesn't say what the potential now is when we look at the previous one as well

Catatan

And there is the volume, confirming this move up has probably not ended yet. We should be able to move up towards 3270ish now. Alts are starting to break up now as well. So things are seem to turn around slowly now, but anything below 3400/40 is still bearish territory for sure. 3600ish is the level to break for the short term. So still a road of resistance. As soon as buy volume decreases a lot, it could shift towards the bears again, unless a very good stable bull flag forms

Catatan

Bulls need to hold this small bull flag now, above 3215/10, if so we should see the 3270 target get reached

Catatan

New Bitcoin analysis:

Bitcoin Bulls Pushing Back, But Still a Big Road of Resistance

botje11

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