BTC story after the dump

17 Mar 2020

Original review forecasted the dump. Sure I didn't expect such a huge dump, but who could have imagined the scale of Coronavirus panic and impact it will bring to the whole world market.

And now we have this...



Bitcoin drawing a new strong SR zone within 5200-5400 range. Volatility range 4500 - 6000. Huge in common sense. Market still haven't decided on direction. Although I tend to think that local bottom was already formed, chart has no confirmation for this, so its only a feeling. Furthermore chart is still very bearish. Price under all exponential moving averages (except 21 at 4H timeframe). Nearest support at 4590 is weak. Stronger at 4000-4100. Not sure there is any support left at all, as this area already taken by original dump, so I don't advise using leverage here. Better don't trade at all or scalp in and out. Mid term swings can hurt a lot at this stage.

Resistance: 5470 - 5650 - 6500 - 7150
Support: 4590 - 4100 - 3700 - 3400

Fear & Greed index: 8 (<= 9 <= 12 <= 8 <= 10 <= 14)
BTC Dominance: 63.6% (<= 64.1 <= 63.7 <= 63.8 <= 64.1)
24h Volume: $150 billion (<= 122 <= 109 <= 178 <= 264)


Yesterday BTC dominance pumped and dumped within 3 hours, and ended up at more or less the same value. Another proof market doesn't have an idea where to go.

18 Mar 2020

Catatan

Bitcoin still within downtrend, failed to grow above 21 EMA at 4H timeframe and now making another swing down. Potential targets for bullish bounce are visible at 4H chart. But if go down then next will be 3300-3400. The higher will be the bounce, the higher chances it will take price to test 6k resistance.

Resistance: 5300 - 5650 - 5960 - 6500
Support: 4550 - 4100 - 3700 - 3400

19 Mar 2020

Catatan

Bitcoin didn't dump or pump after Trump's announcement. He's talking too much shit lately, so his words lose value and power. Meanwhile BTC price is above 21 EMA at 4H again, but as you can see, volume ain't supporting that move much. Price can easily drop without volume, but growing requires volume in any case, so this is a warning sign. When volume decrease, soon it will pump and so will do the dominance

Resistance: 5650 - 5960 - 6500
Support: 4775 - 4550 - 4100 - 3700

Fear & Greed index: 12 (<= 11 <= 8 <= 9 <= 12 <= 8 )
BTC Dominance: 64.3% (<= 62.9 <= 63.6 <= 64.1 <= 63.7)
24h Volume: $124 billion (<= 114 <= 150 <= 122 <= 109)

20 Mar 2020

Catatan

Bitcoin hit 6781 over the night. It seems it is capable to push some more, as volume is increasing, but not too much. So be careful, as this is still a "dead cat bounce" after the dump, so even if price get to 8k, it still has high probability to pull back to 5400-5700, or dump lower. Nearest strong resistance for that scenario written below. But always be ready for volatility to exceed expectation.

Resistance: 7170 - 7555 - 7800
Support: 6180 - 5650 - 5300

22 Mar 2020

Catatan

Bitcoin moving sideway for the second day forming second doji candle in a row. That narrow range with low volume is a silence before the storm. But direction is unpredictable. Smaller timeframes promise pump, week timeframe bounce assumes pull back on the next candle. No liquidity at this level, so first impulse will be pushing price into the opposite direction of the main move in order to trigger fear or fomo. Support and resistance zones stay the same.

Resistance: 6530 - 6850 - 7170 - 7555
Support: 6000 - 5650 - 5350

24 Mar 2020

Catatan

Same as yesterday - Bitcoin is growing, but without any sufficient volume from whales. Keep in mind, that last two weeks BTC gained record all time volume. Means that those who waited so long to buy Bitcoin, already bought it. And will probably buy again if it drops. But will they buy here and now? Most probably no as there is no liquidity. So they have much more interest in dump. But dumps happen for reason - when price grows and people fomo, buying whales walls. So whales need to arrange some fake breakout first, before they can dump. Waiting for it and 7150-7200 could be a nice spot.

P.S. Bitcoin will outperform other markets. Its all just a part of the game.

Resistance: 6850 - 7150 - 7555
Support: 6500 - 6200 - 5800

26 Mar 2020

Catatan

BTC price stay above 6500 support and 21 EMA, but despite recent higher high, indicators show bearish divergence. Volume also lack bullish support. With such controversial information it is hard to forecast next major move direction, but I feel chart favor pullback scenario more. Unless we will see some volume at 6500 touch, price will follow red arrows. P.S. Bitcoin price is a part of world economy, so you can track major indexes to predict next Crypto-King move.

Resistance: 6850 - 7150 - 7555
Support: 6200 - 5800 - 5300

28 Mar 2020

Catatan

BTC bearish forecast triggered. Lets pray it won't be full size bear flag continuation, as in this case dump should be same size as flagpole, which will take it to 2500$. I really don't want to see Bitcoin that low, but that is pure TA. Before that dump come true, there are several strong support zones capable of stopping the fall - written below. Within nearest days may expect price to test 6530 resistance. Then nothing bullish comes to my mind (so far).

Resistance: 6530 - 6870 - 7150
Support: 6200 - 5800 - 5300

29 Mar 2020

Catatan

Careful as most probably BTC is going down to the next support. Last week SPX, DOW and Gold were bouncing, and so did Bitcoin. Friday indexes closed with bearish engulfing (although above support) which may lead to second leg of dump on Monday. BTC is no different from other indexes now, as they represent overall economic health state. Therefore main move might be postponed for the beginning of the next week, but so far it doesn't look bullish.

Stay healthy and at home

Resistance: 6530 - 6870 - 7150
Support: 5800 - 5300 - 4000

4 Apr 2020

Catatan

Bitcoin formed bearish engulfing after 7k resistance rejection. Last two 8H candles didn't bring any strength. Therefore I assume yesterday forecast for 6500 stay valid. Wick down to 6400 also possible on the same impulse move. But that pullback won't be bearish, unless price dump lower to 6200.

P.S. SPX chart draw bear flag, Gold relatively bullish. Controversial.