BTC retracement time

9 Mei 2020

Starting a new TradingView "page" as previous bullish move has temporary ended. Won't call it "SHORT", as I'm really bullish for BTC and this is only a short term retracement that will be followed by dip buys and another bull stage.

Now Bitcoin came back to next strongest support zone at 9600 and last 4H candle touched EMA21. That was our first short target ✅ Now bounce to 9730-9800. Possible after the bounce BTC will slip lower to 9420 and 9230. Bounce from ~9420 would be very bullish, as it won't break the trendline.

News sell off was logical, since after hitting 10k BTC appeared in global news again. But as it overgrown March dump level, no doubt King is reversing towards bull trend at macro. Let it drop, buy the dips and enjoy alts while they have small relief rally.

May 8th post: But be careful. Don't go long blindly - nothing grows without pullbacks. And BTC haven't tested previously broken SRs at 9600 / 9450 / 9230 yet.

Resistance: 10090 ✅ 10550 - 10767 - 10962
Support: 9600 ✅ 9450 - 9235 - 9030 - 8900

😱 Fear & Greed index: 56 (<= 55 <= 49 <= 42)
👑 BTC Dominance: 67.2% (<= 67.9 <= 67 <= 66.2)
⚙️ 24h Volume: $162 billion (<= 201 <= 164 <= 145)

10 Mei 2020

Catatan

Don't we all just love it - Bitcoin volatility 🙂 Almost 20% in just 2 days. Reminder that recent record still belongs to March 12th with 53% in one day. Anyway, we are back to where May have started.

Tomorrow CME futures will open with new massive gap, that will surely close some day. If BTC drop below 8600 again, next stop will be at 6900-7170 range. Current dead cat bounce can take price back to previous strong broken SR at 9230-9300 (less possible higher to 9500).

Resistance: 8900 - 9020 - 9250 - 9500 - 9800
Support: 8630 - 8400 - 8040 - 7700 - 7170

😱 Fear & Greed index: 48 (<= 56 <= 55 <= 49)
👑 BTC Dominance: 67% (<= 67.2 <= 67.9 <= 67)
⚙️ 24h Volume: $197 billion (<= 162 <= 201 <= 164)

11 Mei 2020

Catatan

CME futures opened with new massive gap between 9960 and 8905. Gaps always close, but that doesn't always happen fast. Last day candle look very bearish + we have bear pennant at smaller timeframes. Will there be a dead cat bounce or not, but in any case shorting below 9200 sounds too risky. Besides last two 4H candles lack volume, so I'd rather bet on that bounce to ~9k, than second leg down straight away. If I'm wrong and second leg comes first, CME gap will be closed after the halving.

Resistance: 8630 - 8900 - 9020 - 9250 - 9500 - 9800
Support: 8500 - 8400 - 8040 - 7700 - 7170

😱 Fear & Greed index: 40 (<= 48 <= 56 <= 55)
👑 BTC Dominance: 67.1% (<= 67 <= 67.2 <= 67.9)
⚙️ 24h Volume: $154 billion (<= 197 <= 162 <= 201)

11 Mei 2020

Catatan

13 Mei 2020

Catatan

BTC getting ready for another test of red zone which covers 9150-9345 distance. If get above 9k will start that impulse move. At the same time we may see it go down to ~8630 today as well. Longer forecast stay the same - possible dump to 8.1k and lower. But should collect liquidity above at first.

N.B. CME futures gap from 9960 to 9275 remains open and appealing for price.

Resistance: 8900 - 9020 - 9250 - 9500 - 9800
Support: 8630 - 8500 - 8400 - 8100 - 7700 - 7170

14 Mei 2020

Catatan

CME futures gap between 9960 and 9275 now closed ✅ Very bullish move, but haven't yet made new higher high, although it is a good start for new higher low. If 9960 was the top for that impulse, pullback targets ~9250 / 8900.

Resistance: 9600 - 9800 - 9960 - 10100 - 10550
Support: 9480 - 9230 - 9000 - 8900

15 Mei 2020

Catatan

📉 Daily Bitcoin chart review 📈

Target zone at 9200-9250 support hit on the same day of forecast 👌 Almost 7% wick down and bounce back. BTC holds for 9600 SR, and from that location we can expect the following continuations. Drop below will hit 9480 and may take it to the same targets mentioned yesterday. Stay above leaves a chance for another bullish impulse to test 9900 and higher with breakout target 10550. The way chart look at the moment I prefer to stick to bearish scenario - and since 9200 was already tested, this opens the way to 8900.

Yesterday post: If 9960 was the top for that impulse, pullback targets ~9250 / 8900.

Resistance: 9800 - 9960 - 10100 - 10550
Support: 9480 - 9230 ✅ 9000 - 8900

😱 Fear & Greed index: 44 (<= 40 <= 41 <= 39)
👑 BTC Dominance: 67.6% (<= 67.6 <= 67.2 <= 67)
⚙️ 24h Volume: $174 billion (<= 171 <= 137 <= 184)

17 Mei 2020

Catatan

Two doji candles followed by bullish. Now we have 9400 as minor support that can push price higher on the next drop. If first move will be down, better chances for bullish continuation. If first move up above 9600 - higher chances for bull trap and dump. Overall Bitcoin is still within an uptrend, so longs are safer.

One more thing. On Friday CME futures closed at 9295 and so Monday may bring a small dump to that level.

May 14th post: If 9960 was the top for that impulse, pullback targets ~9250 / 8900.

Resistance: 9600 - 9800 - 9960 - 10100 - 10550
Support: 9400 - 9230 - 9100 - 8900 - 8740 - 8630

😱 Fear & Greed index: 40 (<= 41 <= 44 <= 40 <= 41)
👑 BTC Dominance: 67.1% (<= 67.1 <= 67.6 <= 67.6 <= 67.2)
⚙️ 24h Volume: $116 billion (<= 135 <= 174 <= 171 <= 137)

18 Mei 2020

Catatan

Yesterday's bullish move went by forecast. Hit both target at 9600 and 9960 👌 If BTC stay bullish, nearest minor support for bounce around ~9676, but major zones stay the same. Its the third time BTC test 10k resistance and each time that resistance becomes weaker so chances for breakout grow. If happen itA should take price to ~10550-10750. If pullback, bottom of that consolidation bull flag is at ~9200 (weaker at 9400). Bigger channel bottom at 8630.

Yesterday update: BTC targeting 9800 at least, next 9960. Possible pullback to 9600 - broken resistance that should be re-tested.

Resistance: 9800 - 9960 - 10100 - 10550
Support: 9600 - 9400 - 9230 - 8900 - 8630



P.S. Reminder about CME gap I mentioned previously. Its open between 9570 and 9660. Should be closed, so that gives a guaranteed target for short. The only question is from where to open that short. Gaps don't always close on the next day or week. Although it seems that one will be closed much faster.

19 Mei 2020

Catatan

Really glad to see that bullish scenario in play. After small pullback, BTC grow back to test 10k resistance again. That attempt has high chances for breakout, as this will be 4th test of that zone! And we remember - the more times Sr zone is tested the weaker it becomes. The only thing that doesn't suit breakout scenario is volume - it is still too low for a major move. Well it might appear after stops and liquidations got trigerred. Nearest target for breakout 10550.

Resistance: 9800 - 9960 - 10100 - 10550
Support: 9600 - 9400 - 9230 - 8900 - 8630

😱 Fear & Greed index: 50 (<= 50 <= 40 <= 41)
👑 BTC Dominance: 67.1% (<= 67.1 <= 67.1 <= 67.1)
⚙️ 24h Volume: $127 billion (<= 142 <= 116 <= 135)

20 Mei 2020

Catatan

Slowly but steady Bitcoin is moving within ascending triangle towards 10k resistance. Now at 9800 resistance. Impulse move should start after crossing 9860 with breakout target at 10550. Immediate minor support at 9700 - if day candle close below, target for dump 9200. So far price moves within bullish trend. Will it be another bull trap or breakout, not clear, but move is coming soon.

Resistance: 9800 - 9960 - 10100 - 10550
Support: 9600 - 9400 - 9230 - 8900 - 8630

21 Mei 2020

Catatan

📉 Daily Bitcoin chart review 📈

BTC failed to get above 9860 resistance and dumped. Now two open scenarios. Either BTC forms consolidation channel between 9200 and 9960. Or 9200 support break down and price drops to the next support levels at 9100 / 8900. Remember, feel greed when everyone is in fear. If you see a long scary red candle falling to strong support - buy it! These bounces give quickest profits.

Yesterday post:
1) Move is coming soon => ✅
1) Impulse move should start after crossing 9860 => BTC didn't get above that level ✅
2) Immediate minor support at 9700 - if day candle close below, target for dump 9200 => done ✅

Resistance: 9400 - 9600 - 9800 - 9960
Support: 9230 - 9100 - 8900 - 8630