要回牛了嗎？ Turn Back yet?

3 Okt

Target still there~

傳統的看跌9月過了

說實話 我這波沒有賺到上升的波段
主要除了對於股市市場過熱感到憂慮
另外就是看走眼

The traditional bearish September has passed.
To be honest, I didn’t make any profit from this upward trend.
Mainly because, aside from concerns about the market being overheated, I misjudged the situation.

不過對於沒有做到這個上升波段
其實我並沒有後悔
因為清空的小幣在這段時間沒有太大的漲幅外
其實很多都是跌多於漲

而幸運的是 我有在預估的高點成功開空 目前還在盈利中
這波的跌幅
有幾個關鍵位置及型態需要關注
分別是

However, I don’t regret missing out on this upward movement.
Most of the smaller coins I cleared out didn’t experience significant gains, and in fact, many dropped more than they rose.
Fortunately, I successfully opened a short position at a predicted high point, and I’m still in profit.
As for this downward trend, there are a few key levels and patterns to watch:

60000 這個是傳統上 我們會說的整數關卡 但是對我來說引力不強 只是會停頓一下 繼續選擇方向 這邊注意一下RSI(橘色箭頭) 跌破就往下繼續看 如果能守住 並且帶有量能上攻 那這段跌幅應該就可以安全度過 (注意62418這邊附近有沒有突破)

60,000: This is a psychological level, but it doesn’t have a strong pull for me. It might just pause here before choosing a direction. Pay attention to the RSI here (orange). If it breaks below, continue looking downward. However, if it holds and shows volume on the upward move, this drop should be safely overcome. (Pay attention to whether there’s a breakout around the 62,418 level)


58161 這邊要注意 如果沒有守住 可能會加速下跌 這邊要配合 BT line 這邊也是很多大V看的位置 我個人會在這個位置也有所操作 但不會是我主要操作目標
51000/52730 這裡是我預期比較有可能會到的位置 一方面是通道底部(破底） 一方面跟之前預估（綠）的位置剛好可以形成雙底 另外注意橘色虛線
注意到了嗎。這個是這波上漲的底部

Pay attention to the 58,161 level. If it doesn’t hold, the decline could accelerate. This level should be considered along with the BT line. It’s also a key level that many major analysts are watching. Personally, I will take some action at this level, but it won't be my primary target for trading.
51,000/52,730: I expect it to reach this level, as it's the bottom of the channel (a potential breakdown). Additionally, it aligns with the previously estimated level (green), which could form a double bottom. Also, take note of the orange dashed line—this marks the bottom of the recent rally.



而按照這段時間 比較大型的回調都不會到底 所以我預估應該到這邊為止
Based on recent larger corrections, they usually don’t reach the bottom, so I predict this movement will stop around here.


47000 假如不幸 51000這個位階沒有守住 接下來或許就是要走一個比較大級別的路徑
47,000: If unfortunately, the 51,000 level doesn’t hold, then the next step might be to follow a larger trajectory.



大型通道
破底後45000～46000左右拉回 然後往上攻到通道上緣
破底後沒有拉回 很有可能就是30000見

In the larger channel, if it breaks down, there might be a pullback to around 45,000–46,000 before attempting to push up to the upper edge of the channel.
If there’s no pullback after breaking down, it could possibly drop to 30,000.

47000這個位置我認為可以參考 但是會發生的機會性目前不高
只是當下如果真的發生 可能會發生什麼情況先說明一下

I think 47,000 is a reference level, but the chances of it happening are currently low.
However, if it does occur, this is what I foresee happening.