Bitcoin Dominance is Close to its Top
TLDR:
• BTCDOM is in the final stages of a Cup and Handle Formation.
• Max target for BTCDOM is 500 billion.
• I estimate that BTCDOM still has two or three months of upside. During this time Bitcoin will perform better than most alts. However, BTCDOM is close to toping. Once BTCDOM realizes its full potential I expect the alt valuation in BTC terms will increase.
Background:
• In a previous TV idea, I covered the TOTAL 3 Chart (linked). My conclusion was that the altcoin bear market is close to its end. I wanted to corroborate or refute this Assessment by reviewing the BTC Dominance chart. I am happy to tell you that my bias seems to be accurate.
• To be clear Bitcoin is mega-bullish and I expect it keep being bullish. The only aspect of bitcoin I expect to diminish is its dominance in the crypto market.
Chart Analysis:
BTCDOM is in the final stages of a perfect Cup & Handle formation. These include the following:
1. Uptrend: BTCDOM was in an uptrend since May 21st until June 22nd . During this period BTCDOM rose by 195%.
2. Correction/Cup: Since March of 2023 BTCDOM was in a correction. This correction took the shape of a rounding bottom. The lowest point of this correction touched the 0.382 fib retracement. This is a valid Cup.
3. Handle: During the Months of March and April BTCDOM consolidated in a Bull Flag which is valid for a handle.
4. Breakout: BTCDOM broke out to the upside on the weekly candle of April 24th. BTCDOM tested the 338 billion level as support on the weekly candle of May 29th.
5. Target: The target of this Cup and Handle formation is the 500 billion level. Currently Bitcoin is at 387 billion.
Conclusions:
This may sound bearish for altcoins. However, I would like to point out a few issues.
A. it is not guaranteed the BTCDOM will reach the 500 billion level.
B. Even if it will, it took us 10 weeks to get to the halfway point, so we have 2 or three months of an extreme BTCDOM at the most.
C. Markets are forward looking. If I can analyze the chart and see what is coming, you can bet your last Satoshi that the VCs and whales see it as well. My guess is that they are accumulating big-time.
D. Ask yourself: Would I long an asset that already made a 250% gain? or would you look for an undervalued asset that still has a lot of upside?
E. BTCDOM is close to oversold on the weekly RSI. Does it have some room for more upside? Sure. However, BTCDOM is close to the top.
Please read my TOTAL 3 analysis for more context.
NFA.
What do you think? Please share in the comments.
Best Wishes.
• BTCDOM is in the final stages of a Cup and Handle Formation.
• Max target for BTCDOM is 500 billion.
• I estimate that BTCDOM still has two or three months of upside. During this time Bitcoin will perform better than most alts. However, BTCDOM is close to toping. Once BTCDOM realizes its full potential I expect the alt valuation in BTC terms will increase.
Background:
• In a previous TV idea, I covered the TOTAL 3 Chart (linked). My conclusion was that the altcoin bear market is close to its end. I wanted to corroborate or refute this Assessment by reviewing the BTC Dominance chart. I am happy to tell you that my bias seems to be accurate.
• To be clear Bitcoin is mega-bullish and I expect it keep being bullish. The only aspect of bitcoin I expect to diminish is its dominance in the crypto market.
Chart Analysis:
BTCDOM is in the final stages of a perfect Cup & Handle formation. These include the following:
1. Uptrend: BTCDOM was in an uptrend since May 21st until June 22nd . During this period BTCDOM rose by 195%.
2. Correction/Cup: Since March of 2023 BTCDOM was in a correction. This correction took the shape of a rounding bottom. The lowest point of this correction touched the 0.382 fib retracement. This is a valid Cup.
3. Handle: During the Months of March and April BTCDOM consolidated in a Bull Flag which is valid for a handle.
4. Breakout: BTCDOM broke out to the upside on the weekly candle of April 24th. BTCDOM tested the 338 billion level as support on the weekly candle of May 29th.
5. Target: The target of this Cup and Handle formation is the 500 billion level. Currently Bitcoin is at 387 billion.
Conclusions:
This may sound bearish for altcoins. However, I would like to point out a few issues.
A. it is not guaranteed the BTCDOM will reach the 500 billion level.
B. Even if it will, it took us 10 weeks to get to the halfway point, so we have 2 or three months of an extreme BTCDOM at the most.
C. Markets are forward looking. If I can analyze the chart and see what is coming, you can bet your last Satoshi that the VCs and whales see it as well. My guess is that they are accumulating big-time.
D. Ask yourself: Would I long an asset that already made a 250% gain? or would you look for an undervalued asset that still has a lot of upside?
E. BTCDOM is close to oversold on the weekly RSI. Does it have some room for more upside? Sure. However, BTCDOM is close to the top.
Please read my TOTAL 3 analysis for more context.
NFA.
What do you think? Please share in the comments.
Best Wishes.
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