FA from a Multilingual Singaporean
Diupdate
I'm more a technical person than a fundamental analyst, but there are times when FA helps.
BTC's mid-cycle consolidation is usually heralded by China FUD which are usually subsequently found to be fake news. It is the same-old FUD again this time. China has outlawed cryptocurrencies and Evergrande is crashing! When it is just the cracking down of monopolies, speculation and over-leveraging (eg Alibaba, crypto exchanges, Evergrande) to protect the middle class.
Blockchain technology is very useful, and there are multiple grants being launched every year in every country to explore ways to better harness blockchain tech. However, crypto as speculation is dangerous for those who are ill-prepared, as money tends to flow from the middle class to whales (cf Bitconnect). This is why many countries, including China, have outlawed exchanges to limit speculation—though they still allow the development of blockchain technology (both centralised and decentralised)—while working on a regulatory framework that allows for the responsible investment of cryptocurrencies by their citizens. In a way, they are following the footsteps of Singapore, often seen as a blockchain and crypto haven, which has been building up the regulatory framework that allows for the safe and responsible growth in blockchain technology since 2011.
Nonetheless, the Chinese are a business-minded, industrious and rebellious bunch, and have found loopholes in the temporary regulatory framework that was set up to protect the middle class. Yes, the Chinese government is shutting down exchanges, but many Chinese (especially those in Beijing) are moving to NFTs. RMB is being converted to NFTs, and then subsequently converted to BTC on the global market. Currently, it is the tech savvy in Beijing who are in on it. But I would expect the general public to catch on soon. And probably dump BTC.D comfortably below 40%.
It's hard to get the above picture if you are unable to read Chinese. But do take a close look at onchain and various other datasets, and you will see that the above narrative explains what is going on in NFTs.
protocol.com/china/china-nft-crypto-workarounds
tokens24.com/exclusive/what-makes-singapore-the-blockchain-and-crypto-haven/amp
euronews.com/next/2021/09/24/bitcoin-ban-these-are-the-countries-where-crypto-is-restricted-or-illegal2
BTC's mid-cycle consolidation is usually heralded by China FUD which are usually subsequently found to be fake news. It is the same-old FUD again this time. China has outlawed cryptocurrencies and Evergrande is crashing! When it is just the cracking down of monopolies, speculation and over-leveraging (eg Alibaba, crypto exchanges, Evergrande) to protect the middle class.
Blockchain technology is very useful, and there are multiple grants being launched every year in every country to explore ways to better harness blockchain tech. However, crypto as speculation is dangerous for those who are ill-prepared, as money tends to flow from the middle class to whales (cf Bitconnect). This is why many countries, including China, have outlawed exchanges to limit speculation—though they still allow the development of blockchain technology (both centralised and decentralised)—while working on a regulatory framework that allows for the responsible investment of cryptocurrencies by their citizens. In a way, they are following the footsteps of Singapore, often seen as a blockchain and crypto haven, which has been building up the regulatory framework that allows for the safe and responsible growth in blockchain technology since 2011.
Nonetheless, the Chinese are a business-minded, industrious and rebellious bunch, and have found loopholes in the temporary regulatory framework that was set up to protect the middle class. Yes, the Chinese government is shutting down exchanges, but many Chinese (especially those in Beijing) are moving to NFTs. RMB is being converted to NFTs, and then subsequently converted to BTC on the global market. Currently, it is the tech savvy in Beijing who are in on it. But I would expect the general public to catch on soon. And probably dump BTC.D comfortably below 40%.
It's hard to get the above picture if you are unable to read Chinese. But do take a close look at onchain and various other datasets, and you will see that the above narrative explains what is going on in NFTs.
protocol.com/china/china-nft-crypto-workarounds
tokens24.com/exclusive/what-makes-singapore-the-blockchain-and-crypto-haven/amp
euronews.com/next/2021/09/24/bitcoin-ban-these-are-the-countries-where-crypto-is-restricted-or-illegal2
Catatan
* If things seem exciting now, wait till the paperwork for 1HFY21 completes, and money starts seriously flowing again. * BTCUSDT is getting a lot of attention now, but pay attention too to DXY, NFTUSDT and DeFiUSDT.
* Alts to accelerate after BTCUSDT exceeds ATH and corrects.
* Things may slow down after BTCUSDT exceeds 73.4K, but we will be exploring new grounds then, so keep an open mind and avoid a deterministic approach.
Catatan
Le bon sens est la chose du monde la mieux partagée: car chacun pense en être si bien pourvu que ceux même qui sont les plus difficiles à contenter en toute autre chose n’ont point coutume d’en désirer plus qu’ils en ont.Catatan
I was bored, so I wrote a poem titled "Please Slow Down, BTC". Draft 1:Please slow down
This isn't a race
Alts can't keep up
With your rapid pace
The time goes by
Faster than I'd like
Though time is on our side
The log regression band, what a sight!
There was a time
You needed me to DCA
At Fib's various lines
During the mid-cycle, hey!
But with each week that passes
As you bounce off 20W SMA and grow
I doubt I will see
Many red weekly candles glow
But I look back
On the days that have gone by
Keeping Fib lines in my heart
And RSI in my eyes
So, will you please slow down
Time is on our side
This isn't a race
Keep a steady pace
Catatan
* It's useful to toggle between the daily vs weekly charts for BTC.D to see the differences between the bodies and wicks, so as to better interpret the *weekly* (not the daily) candle. * Very similar to other models and modelling techniques, it is often the 3rd degree rate of change that matters more than the 1st degree figures.
* In summary, the length of the body shows who is in control and the length of the wick shows you the price rejection.
* To get a complete picture, note both 1) how the wick:body ratio changes through the week; and 2) how the rate of change changes.
* Of course, these are just quantitative clues and inputs. At the end of the day, train and develop your intuitive side, and learn to trust it when it is strong enough.
Catatan
* The weekly candle has closed.* Though both the wick and the candle closing were slightly higher than expected, 2.52% higher to be precise, this is still within our tolerance range.
* This week promises to be slightly more interesting, with upcoming milestones of interest both fundamentally and technically speaking.
Catatan
* As expected, DXY is trending downwards this week (debt ceiling, approval of 2HFY21 budget plans).* This will provide much strength to BTCUSDT.
* However, there is great resistance at the previous BTCUSDT ATH, and it will probably be range bound for some time.
* This will be good for alts.
Catatan
It has finally happened. Well, being late is better than never. Bearish engulfing candle.Catatan
* As initially projected, BTC.D has topped out and will be reversing direction for the near future. * I'm quite irritated that my initial estimate was off by 4.5% though.
* However, I'll probably need to update my BTC.D analysis, as ETH.D will be playing a greater role soon(ish).
Catatan
Updated analysis here: 
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