When I see this, I can't think of an alt-season.
Diupdate
Look at the size of the reversal pattern that has formed.
It looks like a year and a half long sloping channel.
I put a 3D Renko to remove all noise, and left only VFI LF.
That's the way it is.
Regular bullish divergence and very persistent.
I believe there can be no real (as we like 3-6 months, not these "2-3 day alt-seasons") alts pumps in 2023,
because imagine how long it would take to work your way out of that pattern? It's shaping up to be an assault
for 51% and then on to somewhere around 60%...
Well you know, every now and then bitcoin stomps all the coins so that it leaves them wet.
It's been too long since that happened. There was just a boring drop, but no real massacre.
Now it's coming.
P.S. I know there's plenty of bullish sentiment.
Guys, don't forget that a fall requires just as long a consolidation at the bottom before a rise.
So far we have a fall and no consolidation (weekly chart i mean).
It looks like a year and a half long sloping channel.
I put a 3D Renko to remove all noise, and left only VFI LF.
That's the way it is.
Regular bullish divergence and very persistent.
I believe there can be no real (as we like 3-6 months, not these "2-3 day alt-seasons") alts pumps in 2023,
because imagine how long it would take to work your way out of that pattern? It's shaping up to be an assault
for 51% and then on to somewhere around 60%...
Well you know, every now and then bitcoin stomps all the coins so that it leaves them wet.
It's been too long since that happened. There was just a boring drop, but no real massacre.
Now it's coming.
P.S. I know there's plenty of bullish sentiment.
Guys, don't forget that a fall requires just as long a consolidation at the bottom before a rise.
So far we have a fall and no consolidation (weekly chart i mean).
Catatan
I can see that the case is developing.
And it will continue to do so.
Catatan
Already very cool!
Passing the 48 level will mean
an exit from this long structure.
Catatan
Catatan
I see a lot of people are deceived by the fact that domination has reached the ceiling of the channel and now it seems natural for them to give up and start the alt-season. Fuck. This is exactly what the manipulators want, to gather liquidity into the alt market here. I don't believe it. There is now a cross on the 2 day EMA 100/200 chart. Up. We're just gonna call it off and forget it? Dominance is walking under the upper channel boundary preparing to break it. What is the scenario after all? There are two possible scenarios. Bitcoin up, altcoins sharply down (this hasn't happened in a while, and we remember how it is). The second scenario is all down.
Catatan
I looked at other people's ideas, a huge number of people carelessly think that the dominance will decline from upper boundary of this big channel.
And I see an ominous sign formed for this viewpoint.
If we were to have a reversal, why would the dominion make this mini-gap!?!
Catatan
I'm thinking of a bitcoin down scenario and an alt market down twice as deep! This will be unexpected for many.
Also, the public ignores divergences.
Many just draw a technical movement without looking at either market strength or volume.
Catatan
Catatan
Yes, that's me and my unpopular (and possibly erroneous) thoughts.
Look at how many people are waiting for the alt season.
What does it take for an altseason?
It needs Bitcoin rising in value and its dominance falling precipitously.
You just can't make an altseason out of falling dominance.
What about Bitcoin?
It has fallen out of the daily wedge and is stomping around. The gap has been filled, not really sure why go to fill the gap at 35,000 if the stock market is also hanging dangerously low.
What about the SPX?
It has been in a complex redistribution pattern for a year, which many misunderstand as consolidation for an upside shot.
The VIX manager of the market is down below 17. It could break above 32.5 from there. That would impact the stock market and the crypto market at once.
DXY? A double bottom on the daily chart at 100.8. With a bullish divergence.
I am not canceling my prediction that this thing is going to storm 107.8 (and then we will see if there will be a continuation).
Very bad for the crypto market even if it moves to 107.8.
So, what else am I forgetting?
Greed and Fear? 70.
Extreme greed I don't particularly consider, as there are no signs of strength.
Consequently, reaching the 75 mark is about to happen.
And for all that, it seems to some that a deviation in dominance is enough for the alt-season
from the upper boundary of this huge channel.
If the dominance now continues to the 48.4% level again, it will be consistent with Wyckoff SOS (sign of strength) pattern of Phase D.
It will be real against expectations.
But the market has been rising since December.
And here it comes, having accumulated divergences, having wasted strength, having accumulated greed, and what particularly made me cringe was ignoring the Fed's attitude.
Yes, there is a time lag between the statements of the financial authorities and the market reaction.
If you are convinced that the crypto market is living in opposition to the mainstream market, I really have nothing to contradict, and I won't change your mind.
If you think the crypto market is not a separate world, then my arguments are for you.
Catatan
Really.
Catatan
Pernyataan Penyangkalan
Informasi dan publikasi tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan bukan merupakan saran keuangan, investasi, perdagangan, atau rekomendasi lainnya yang diberikan atau didukung oleh TradingView. Baca selengkapnya di Persyaratan Penggunaan.