Is this the time the 200W MA BREAKS for BTC?
This could be the time that people learn that the 200W MA is NOT some magical bottom signal.
It is just an average of past prices that HAS TO BE BROKEN at some point.
Just like the 200D MA has been broken multiple times the weekly can be broken as well. It just takes longer to play out.
# Why this time could be the time it breaks
https://www.tradingview.com/x/S6j4n1As/
It is the first time that the 200W MA is OUTSIDE of the "green bottom channel" of my proprietary BTC pricing model based on mining difficulty.
Because of the substantial gap between the 200W MA and the bottom green corridor, this could be the time the 200W MA breaks by visiting the green area.
# Peoples reaction
Now that it seems to be the consensus that the 200W MA has to hold (because it did the last 3 times), I can see many people going all-in if prices go there.
Consequently, it would devastate a lot of people if this time it doesn't hold.
This could cause quite a bit of panic and depending and how long it takes to get there, prices could stay under the 200W MA for an unprecedented long amount of time.
# The BTC difficulty model
I created the model in 2019.
It predicted the Mar 2020 bottom and with its help, I was able to get an idea of where the top of the cycle would be back in May 2020 (check https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BLX/gOG0Imga-Realistic-BTC-Bullrun-Target/).
Now it is just a model and all models are wrong and it doesn't tell us that prices have to go to the green area again.
It is useful to see what is possible in the future based on what was possible in the past.
# Takeaways
It is just an average of past prices that HAS TO BE BROKEN at some point.
Just like the 200D MA has been broken multiple times the weekly can be broken as well. It just takes longer to play out.
# Why this time could be the time it breaks
https://www.tradingview.com/x/S6j4n1As/
It is the first time that the 200W MA is OUTSIDE of the "green bottom channel" of my proprietary BTC pricing model based on mining difficulty.
Because of the substantial gap between the 200W MA and the bottom green corridor, this could be the time the 200W MA breaks by visiting the green area.
# Peoples reaction
Now that it seems to be the consensus that the 200W MA has to hold (because it did the last 3 times), I can see many people going all-in if prices go there.
Consequently, it would devastate a lot of people if this time it doesn't hold.
This could cause quite a bit of panic and depending and how long it takes to get there, prices could stay under the 200W MA for an unprecedented long amount of time.
# The BTC difficulty model
I created the model in 2019.
It predicted the Mar 2020 bottom and with its help, I was able to get an idea of where the top of the cycle would be back in May 2020 (check https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BLX/gOG0Imga-Realistic-BTC-Bullrun-Target/).
Now it is just a model and all models are wrong and it doesn't tell us that prices have to go to the green area again.
It is useful to see what is possible in the future based on what was possible in the past.
# Takeaways
- have a plan for what you do if you buy the 200W MA and it doesn't hold
- Moving Averages of any length and timeframe are AVERAGES and even if prices are skewed they HAVE TO VISIT the other side at some point
- no one knows what will happen in the future -> don't get married to any idea -> adapt
- the 200W MA doesn't have to break just keep in mind it is a possibility
- it can be a slow bleed until we break
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