The dogs bark, the bears eat them

1 Mar 2019

Hello, there is an arabic proverb that says "The dogs bark, the caravan moves along/passes".
Applies to crypto, as illustrated here:


Now, does anyone know what happens when you fire a bullet in the air?
Right, it first goes up at supersonic speed, then slows down, then tops, then falls back down, and it falls down much more vertically than how it went up.

Bitcoin as you can see, is following perfectly the laws of the universe.


I am trying to make such a curve for 2015, but there is a problem, I cannot make a legit one:


Try it yourself!

The only way for Bitcoin to be bullish is if it stays above this - and this is kind of a stretch very unprecise could not make it fit well:


Once it falls below, say good night. Long the dead cat bounce at 1500-1800$, then don't touch it till 600 at least.

Now that every one knows about this ponzi, and mainstream invested in it, there are no fools left to buy.
The fools in now are suckers that do not want to take risk, they want a "sure thing", they always behave like this,
and this is when things die. Just check their reactions every time they see a bear PROVE to them they are wrong.
Extreme hostility, and even more, they project their own fears "haha you are mad you missed out" "people will make
fun of you in 5 years", they are so scared of thinking differently to the herd and risking looking dumb. They actually
think every one is like them and trying to be a good sheep.

Bagholders in crypto keep saying because the price crashed twice in the past and then went up, it should go up again.
What kind of argument is that? Absolutely stupid. There are so many counter arguments.
And like it's the same situation now than 5 years ago... Rofl try harder.

The only way for crypto to go up now that my grandma knows about it, is for it to be adopted, still will not mean $250,000, not necessarilly 20k even.
Changes, new tech, in DARK AGES GOT ADOPTED FASTER THAN BITCOIN. So, what is holding it back so much in 2019? The Rotschilds? Lol nice one.
It is not getting adopted because it sucks! Plain and simple. It was getting some adoption 5 years ago because criminals could use it to hide, but now
the only people using it are dumb moronic bagholders that are heavilly invested in and want to convince the world Bitcoin is a real thing.

And do not forgot that early adopters have quit Bitcoin / do not believe in it anymore...

Very few people are calling for 0, might be unsure and scared of the backlash for making that call if they are wrong, and honestly, if they are right too.
I could not care less about attracting the hate of idiots that supported and enriched criminals for their own supposed selfish gain.

This time will not be different...

1 Mar 2019

Catatan

This is also important to note for the long term:

1 Mar 2019

Catatan

Oh look, shorts are at their all time low, we are under a severe resistance, every one thinks this is the bottom, we had a shooting star candle last week and this week is a doji, news are letting us know BTC is going to 100.000, and of course, Bitcoin is in heavy accumulation phase.
Retail noobs that are all into technical analysis and do not understand either fundamentals market cycles or momentum think this idea is troll - well it kinda is but the underlying idea is not!

Crypto volume: 10 to 30 billion usd with BTC doing 1/3 that and ATR of 3-5%, other crypto a little more.

Forex volume: 5 trillion usd, ATR are 0.75% (so multiplying volume by atr forex is 15-50 times more than crypto)

Stocks and indices volumes: hundreds of billion of usd (200 bil for S&P 500 alone, 5 billion for each of the top 20 stocks etc), ATR of like 1% for indices, 3% for stocks. Here again, at least 10 times crypto.

Oil and gold: Kinda similar. Oil has a volume of 50 billion I think, half crypto ATR. Gold more volume but less ATR. A little to much bigger than crypto.

Bonds: 700 billion volumes, 1.5% ATR, so about 10 times crypto in terms of moves*vol.

Agri + metals futures: Bigger than crypto.

Now, Trading View chats:
Crypto = 7500 messages a day
Forex = 3900 messages a day
Stocks & indexes = 1975 messages a day
Gold = 1750 messages a day
Oil = 1300 messages a day
Dax = 350 messages a day
And then all under 200.

Can you spot the market where retail traders/investors with very little experience but very big confidence in their own skills are massively overrepresented?
In 2018 the number of traders in the world went from 9 million to 13 million, and it was not because of bonds or agriculture...

Crypto: full of people that invested, lost their money, then try to make it up trading crypto, very typical, the only difference is these people usually are overleveraged, crypto moves 15% a day so no need for leverage. I bet alot of people still use leverage in crypto to "get their money back faster".

Take my advice (this is for the new people the 4 million I guess), rome wasn't built in 1 day, if you lost your money do not hope making it back quick trading and then going back to your normal life. If you want to trade as a career you got a long road ahead of you boy/girl/other, go learn all the things. Average college degree takes 4 years remember.

Warren Buffet and all the others, cryptoers criticize for "having an agenda against my beloved coin", have been telling the truth and proven right almost all the time for 50 years...
They would rather listen to self proclaimed experts that never traded anything else, or a dude that told peopel to buy silver at the top!

We are going to have several millions of bankrupt crypto traders on our hands sooner than you think.
Why do they have to be so greedy and in a rush to make money? When they don't know anything? Makes no sense.

Guys like me are going to take every last penny out of this negative sum market, and there will be nothing left. Bitcoin is not sustainable. There are no clients buying goods or services (stocks), no government backing it and taking taxes in (currencies), no government paying you against you lending them money (bonds), no land being exploited (farming), no rent (property), nothing but gamblers. Sure gambling is sustainable, but certainly not at this level.

No suprise people that do not understand the meaning of 0.9x^n (this is what crypto is!) did not understand the momentum I presented in this idea.
A little disapointed it got very little attention I'll admit.
Very simple math! Negative sum will innevitably tend to 0!
Very simple momentum theory! When someone slows down flattens and then starts pointing down next step is falling like a rock!

1 Mar 2019

Catatan

So I just learned there were camps for crypto addicts and they have a history of gambling addiction.
Who would have thought?
Gambling worldwide generates about 200 billion revenue, but I do not see the bulk of that moving to crypto to sustain that insane waste.
When the gamblers finally lose their minds and kill themselves is this when crypto finally crashes?
My mind is telling me that after this doji week we will fall, as usual, but my heart is telling me "WHY DID YOU NOT STAY AWAY FROM CRYPTO THIS MARKET IS A WATSE OF TIME IT WILL TAKE 50 YEARS TO DO ANYTHING".

Had time to open and close 2 swing trades while Bitcoin was "consolidating as baggies are waiting for its next move".

This is what happens when there are no fundamentals moving the market...

2 Mar 2019

Catatan

Forget about all the technical indicators, and during pullbacks try identifying if (talking of an uptrend) buyers are just taking a break and buy/sell getting neutral, or if sellers perceive the price as good value and stepping in?
I want to post 2 ideas: 1 about pullbacks (with fibonacci areas shape and volume), 1 about what financial products are good for scalping daytrading swingtrading.

2 Mar 2019

Catatan

Step 1- Tell people to buy at the top
Step 2- Never mention that again
Step 3- Appear on television regularly and talk about every single financial product. Everything is a good buy.
Step 4- One of those is bound to go up a ton
Step 5- Tell people how you have been advising people to buy the bubble before it went up 5000%
Step 6- Tell people to buy at the top

This is how it's done. This is the Max Keiser way.

Crypto is just so full of frauds it's insane. The concentration of scammers is just unbelievable. Like I think 1 in 2 ICO creator was previously sentenced for running a ponzi or pyramid scheme.
1 in 3 Crypto shill is a fraud
2 in 3 Crypto shill never saw a market other than crypto and that was their very first one

They are worse than cockroaches. If crypto goes up, they'll tell every one how right they were. If it hits the ground, they'll move to something else.
They just leech off the tens or hundreds of thousands of idiots that follow them.
Weak slimey spineless creatures. Hanz get ze flamethrower.

3 Mar 2019

Catatan

So the week is almost over, a doji of course...
Something is bound to happen soon, I think next week, but even if not next week, almsot certain somehting big will happen in March.
Fall like a rock, or the danger for the few short sellers left, we break above the resistances and Bitcoin blows up



Something like this:


But then again... There is very little enthusiasm to buy Bitcoin in 2018-2019 compared to 2014-2015, very very little enthusiasm and follow up...
So not sure it blows up, but it might...
Till now every resistance break has had absolutely pathetic follow up...
Still pretty risky to stay short if we start going up (but I do not think this is likely)


So to sum up, Bitcoin sucks, and it takes forever to move, why did I waste time and capital on it? But at least it should do something soon...
The only really interesting moments are when BTC crashes 50% and then bounces very rapidely.
There is action all the time on indices or FX or futures...

3 Mar 2019

Catatan

:D

3 Mar 2019

Catatan

This time it's different...

4 Mar 2019

Catatan

Let's play a fun game with cryptocurrencies.


Ok so now the daily IB broke bearish, and we lost every kind of support, could we please, please JUST MOVE!
Every sunday I check all my charts on daily and 15 minutes timeframes to get ready for the week, there are indices, FX pairs, commodities, and Bitcoin, and every time I get shocked by that 1 chart "wow what is this crap it's not trending at all", guess which one it is.
Bitcoin: what advantage it gives you in being painfully obvious, it takes away in being painfully boring.

4 Mar 2019

Catatan

"The price cannot just go to zero!"
"Hold my beer"

10 Apr 2019

Catatan

It's going to be more drawn out than on this idea chart.
I'm going to quit crypto entirely, too much waste of time and money.
It's not interesting for me to send 2k to some crypto broker and wait 56 years.
Will make an idea specific if I completely give up on crypto.
The price got pumped 10 times similarly in the past 18 months and it was fake, and what kind of idiots are participating that they falll for it again?

So in a way it's predictable, but I saw the pump coming right before, and had no time to react (I started smelling it with all the fake volume buying selloffs and supporting a very weak uptrend, and when we were right below resistance and FCoin volume went from 90 million to 7 billion I could not anticipate anything without money on crypto brokers).
Because of ESMA regulations not letting me do what I want with my money, and crypto being super slow for ages then moving suddenly, there is no point.
And it's so boring to check every day to get 1 opportunity every 76 years (time it takes for the brain of a cryptoer to process 1 single information).

(When prices move slowly a trade will cost alot in rollover or funding, and Bitmex is anoying they force you to hold Bitcoin or trade or short *0 but then it's hard to react)



There's nothing left here. Crypto got milked and is all dried up. Go next.

10 Apr 2019

Catatan

For anyone wondering how long it could take and for how long the price could be slowly going and having fake rallies, remember these 2 things:
1- Charles ponzi shareholders held on until their deaths, waiting for the company to make a comeback. yes, really.
2- The WatchTower Society (affiliated to the Jehovah's Witnesses) have been predicting the end of the world from 1878 to 1975.

Delusional people do not take longer than others to learn, they NEVER learn.
It's pointless to try reasonning with them. Even if you were right for TWENTY years, if the price ends up going their way they will disregard 20 years and think they were right all along.
Every time the price falls I can 99% guarentee it will bounce, the delusional baggies keep buying.

The only thing that will stop the cycle is their death, and maybe their children deaths too. The price went up so fast in such a short amount of time they got marked for life.

If it keep fading away logarithmically (as opposed as when it went up exponentially), there is really 0 reason to be involved. Much better opportunities elsewhere.
There won't be any 30% in a day anymore but there's stll other hype markets. I heard MJ was one bound to explode soon. Or maybe it already is did not check.
With every one having access via the internet to markets and anyone (ANYONE) being able to buy sell, there might be more near zero risk high reward opportunities. Maybe they'll be more competition thought?

When after an exchange restarts after a maintenance and there is a 30% arbitrage opportunity, that's too much.. Can't this happen again?
Fools buying or selling regardless of price, or because of a mis display..

Idk there are not more and more professionals but there's more and more clueless people that think they know what they're doing.

For infinite free money we'd need a new kind of exchange...

The danger might rather come from regulators, trying to prevent the dumb from losing their money too fast.

Well anyway, it's better to learn how to trade or invest in multiple other markets (or do something else entirely ofc), and manage to be consistent even if it's just taking very few opportunities and barely making a profit, better than nothing, rather than wait and hope for another bubble giving away free money.

Also, it is not a certainty that 1 fake rally will be the last fake one. It could keep repeating until 0. I strongly doubt the current one is the last one too..

9 Mei 2019

Catatan

We are at "hahaha the bear market is over" "confirmation of bull market" stage.



Probably going slightly higher. Will short around 6300-6500.
Should top anywhere in the 6000-7000 area probably.

15 Mei 2019

Catatan

Possible top near 9000.

Or this is also possible:



Simple exponential growth problem.
Bitcoin is even worse.
The higher it goes the more ressources needed.
A 10% increase on 100 Billion market cap + 10 billion are needed
A 10% increase on 200 Billion market cap + 20 billion are needed
So for it to keep going up exponentially as seen onto the log chart (or during pumps that go ballistic), it actually exponentially exponentially needs more ressources. Exponential².

Anyone that can add 2 numbers without using their fingers see the difficulty.

We can see on the chart the exponential growth slowing down.

This is what a bacteria exponential growth chart looks like:


"Pyramid schemes or Ponzi schemes show an exponential type of growth resulting in high profits for a few initial investors and losses among great numbers of investors."

Malthusian catastrophe = A Malthusian catastrophe (also known as Malthusian check, Malthusian crisis, Malthusian spectre or Malthusian crunch) is a prediction that population growth will outpace agricultural production – that there will be too many people and not enough food.

27 Mei 2019

Catatan

This is a good possibility:


Next 10 years could look like this:

4 Jun 2019

Catatan

One of the most realistic futures for Bitcoin.


Bulls will always be in denial anyway but it will feel good when Bitcoin starts going down again.
Down to 7600 right now, after topping at 9100.
I think it goes back to retest that level or slightly under 10k.
I hope this is it then. If BTC goes to 12,000 or worse 20,000 it should be pretty easy money so it is good too.
If this happens I think I will want to vomit.

29 Sep 2019

Catatan

Still on track...