Bitcoin bear case, $3,560?
Bitcoin bear case is an extremely low probability as it involves betting against the stock market for a recession, and the potential collapse of bitcoin when looking at the monthly chart but nothing more than a healthy correction on the 5 year chart.
From a technical standpoint the parabolic green curve line break will signal a red flag of downside targets, along with a break of the monthly upward slowing head and shoulders neckline which has a target of $3,560. Interestingly there is also a CME Futures gap at this level too. There is also a 0.5 fib at the $3,600 level which is another confluence.
Another complementing theory is usually we notice that price very quickly goes up (or down) to a certain level only to then give back and return the whole move to retest the price where it initiated often referred to as (testing liquidity) and we have seen this frequently on all time frames. The idea would then suggest at retest of the $3,800 wick giving back the whole move from the March 2020 COVID low which went to $69,000 thereafter. From a 5 yearly candle perspective of green candles starting from 2010, a red long legged doji would be significantly bullish from a 5 year candle perspective (2020-2025), to initiate a long from 2025 to 2030. The assumption of the market is we continue to see 4 years cycles that always go up no matter what, therefore in this idea we are flipping everything on it's head for market participants leaving them confused about what the long term investment bitcoin offers particularly when looking at the price structure from a 5 year candle perspective.
My personal opinion is that the low may already be in on Bitcoin and we continue to the upside in accordance with a 4 year cycle perspective which seems to be the more probable and palatable outcome since the trend is usually your friend. However understanding opposing ideas is always necessary despite how extreme they may be, the idea should be considered to avoid bias and overconfidence, and the decision to accept or reject and idea is based on your belief on the market which is entirely separated from winning and losing.
All the best! :D
From a technical standpoint the parabolic green curve line break will signal a red flag of downside targets, along with a break of the monthly upward slowing head and shoulders neckline which has a target of $3,560. Interestingly there is also a CME Futures gap at this level too. There is also a 0.5 fib at the $3,600 level which is another confluence.
Another complementing theory is usually we notice that price very quickly goes up (or down) to a certain level only to then give back and return the whole move to retest the price where it initiated often referred to as (testing liquidity) and we have seen this frequently on all time frames. The idea would then suggest at retest of the $3,800 wick giving back the whole move from the March 2020 COVID low which went to $69,000 thereafter. From a 5 yearly candle perspective of green candles starting from 2010, a red long legged doji would be significantly bullish from a 5 year candle perspective (2020-2025), to initiate a long from 2025 to 2030. The assumption of the market is we continue to see 4 years cycles that always go up no matter what, therefore in this idea we are flipping everything on it's head for market participants leaving them confused about what the long term investment bitcoin offers particularly when looking at the price structure from a 5 year candle perspective.
My personal opinion is that the low may already be in on Bitcoin and we continue to the upside in accordance with a 4 year cycle perspective which seems to be the more probable and palatable outcome since the trend is usually your friend. However understanding opposing ideas is always necessary despite how extreme they may be, the idea should be considered to avoid bias and overconfidence, and the decision to accept or reject and idea is based on your belief on the market which is entirely separated from winning and losing.
All the best! :D
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