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When will BTC top? - Four-year cycle theory prediction
In January of 2022, I predicted that Bitcoin would bottom in November of that year. I made that prediction on the basis of similarities across two prior 4-year cycles, and my call turned out exactly right.
Early this year (2024), I came to the conclusion that the 4-year cycle theory was invalidated when Bitcoin reached ATHs (above 69k) much earlier than in previous cycles. In fact, it made new highs even before the halving, which has never happened before. However, a few weeks ago I decided to revisit the 4-year cycle theory and see whether it might somehow still be salvageable. I argue that it can be salvaged, but only if we overlook the price action from Q1 of this year. If we treat the price action from Q1 of 2024 as an aberration - perhaps because ETF inflows were hotter than anyone expected - then the four year cycle can still be considered valid, and put to work to make some predictions.
With that caveat, in other words, if we overlook evidence that invalidates the hypothesis (stupid, I know) then I can say that Bitcoin should top sometime between Sept 20 and Oct 20 of 2025...that is, if this cycle matches older cycles.
I make my prediction on the basis of the following four criteria across three prior cycles.
1. It has taken Bitcoin between 364 - 415 days to reach the bottom from ATHs. In other words, it takes Bitcoin around a year to reach bottom.
2. It has taken Bitcoin between 1070 - 1135 days to make new highs after a previous cycle's ATHs. If you bought the absolute top of a cycle, you've had to wait around 1100 days before you saw new highs.
3. After Bitcoin makes new highs, it tends to run for between 329 - 343 days before reaching that cycle's top. In other words, after making new highs, Bitcoin stays in a bull market for close to a year.
4. Finally, and most interesting, it has taken Bitcoin EXACTLY 1064 days to reach ATHs from a previous cycle's all-time-lows on two separate cycles. That is a remarkable coincidence.
So, if we overlook the price action of Q1 2024 and decide that Bitcoin made new cycle highs (above 69k) for the first time in October of 2024, then we can drink from the hopium cup which says Bitcoin should keep running for around a year until Sept-Oct of 2025. If, by some strange coincidence Bitcoin tops out exactly 1064 days from last cycle's lows (criteria 4 above), the top should come in on October 20th, 2025.
So, once again:
Sept 20 - Oct 20
This is obviously not scientific, and even more obviously NOT financial advice.
Here's the link to my 2022 bottom prediction:
Early this year (2024), I came to the conclusion that the 4-year cycle theory was invalidated when Bitcoin reached ATHs (above 69k) much earlier than in previous cycles. In fact, it made new highs even before the halving, which has never happened before. However, a few weeks ago I decided to revisit the 4-year cycle theory and see whether it might somehow still be salvageable. I argue that it can be salvaged, but only if we overlook the price action from Q1 of this year. If we treat the price action from Q1 of 2024 as an aberration - perhaps because ETF inflows were hotter than anyone expected - then the four year cycle can still be considered valid, and put to work to make some predictions.
With that caveat, in other words, if we overlook evidence that invalidates the hypothesis (stupid, I know) then I can say that Bitcoin should top sometime between Sept 20 and Oct 20 of 2025...that is, if this cycle matches older cycles.
I make my prediction on the basis of the following four criteria across three prior cycles.
1. It has taken Bitcoin between 364 - 415 days to reach the bottom from ATHs. In other words, it takes Bitcoin around a year to reach bottom.
2. It has taken Bitcoin between 1070 - 1135 days to make new highs after a previous cycle's ATHs. If you bought the absolute top of a cycle, you've had to wait around 1100 days before you saw new highs.
3. After Bitcoin makes new highs, it tends to run for between 329 - 343 days before reaching that cycle's top. In other words, after making new highs, Bitcoin stays in a bull market for close to a year.
4. Finally, and most interesting, it has taken Bitcoin EXACTLY 1064 days to reach ATHs from a previous cycle's all-time-lows on two separate cycles. That is a remarkable coincidence.
So, if we overlook the price action of Q1 2024 and decide that Bitcoin made new cycle highs (above 69k) for the first time in October of 2024, then we can drink from the hopium cup which says Bitcoin should keep running for around a year until Sept-Oct of 2025. If, by some strange coincidence Bitcoin tops out exactly 1064 days from last cycle's lows (criteria 4 above), the top should come in on October 20th, 2025.
So, once again:
Sept 20 - Oct 20
This is obviously not scientific, and even more obviously NOT financial advice.
Here's the link to my 2022 bottom prediction:
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