BTCUSD Weekly Analysis @ 24 June '18 | 2018-2022

Diupdate

Idea becomes valid once weekly closes below ~$5845 with a confirmation on the monthly. Ath will not be breached this year, I cannot see it. Probably also not for coming years, because after bear market comes accumulation, before a very slow bullrun.
Bitcoin is going to rush for the next bottom it seems. Sharp selloffs, very weaks pullbacks and faster than I've expected (which doesn't forebode well - because I can foresee many new crypto traders think 5k will probably be the bottom for ever, then does good dead bounce before dumping harder), hence the need for a new chart, despite the older one was on track going to target, but I've changed my mind that the real bottom is not 4.8k, not 3.3k, but most likely close to or lower than 2k, because the chart is showing that, the structure has changed.

If close above, than there is still possibility for 13k once break 7.6k, then 8.3k, then 10k,
Else there can be a bounce at ~5k to around 7.6k or even up to 12k (this probably is last sell opportunity and exit before market collapse) + expectation 1.6k to 2k. Ideal place to buy and add to inventory probably at 1.3k, if it's in accumulation zone (tight/flat price action). Possibility for 3 digits exists.

I think the big sell off has not started yet, because the triangle is still intact. We didn't made a newer low and did not reached market failure at $5925 on exchanges other than bitfinex and bitmex. I see more people use bitstamp chart instead of bitfinex and bitstamp retained the higher low. If that is breached, I expect a lot of stop losses being triggered, longs from months ago up till now being liquidated and a sharp fall followed by a pump, then more dump for many months to come. Companies will sell their inventory and bagholders will panic sell, it will bleed for another year until it finds a bottom.

Again, this idea is not valid and activated if the triangle holds, important to remember.

Just follow the lines and trend.

Please do not comment about fundamentals, I'm well aware of it probably before you even heard about bitcoin. The speculation about big money is already factored in the price and since bureaucrats are slow and many exchanges have problems of their own, I don't expect anything big coming in for coming years to break all time high.

Catatan

Well, weekly closes today (this evening) and next weekly close falls with monthly close, this idea then becomes activated the way it goes.

Also, there is a reason I used lineair scaling for this idea, so you can experience the building of the Eiffel Tower by clicking the play button. Next to that, the lines aren't screwed.

It's pretty annoying that lineair scaling gives different results than log, while in proper scaling, the log should bend lines in lineair charts and have a 1:1 ratio, this can lead to poor results due to false expectations when you draw trendlines, but whatever.

Some snapshots:
Lineair

Logarithmic

Catatan

Weekly candle probably saved by this scam pump. I wouldn't buy at all, but waiting for good short op, ONLY when books are liquid, otherwise cashing out soon for best price you can get still, before you keep losing money by manipulators pumping and dumping, because just like in '13-'15, they kept liquidating people on margin on okex, many whales ended up broke, which if they didn't trade at the casino (which is now bitmex), they would have been multi millionaires if they cashed out above 14k.

No advice, just my opinion and experience.

1-2 year bear market, 2k + 3.3k targets still stand. ~5k or 5.5k before bounce, probably last chance to sell your bags, can go up to 8k. This scam pump 6.5-6.6k, not worth it, it probably will dump even faster. 1.3k and 3 digits once we close monthly candle below, still one week to go.

Catatan

This update really doesn't belong to the weekly update, because it's local for this week (outside of scope bigger picture), but anyway, need to set previous update straight.

I need to clarify this, since confusing with some people.
It's probably consolidating, trying to create higher high, if success, will be lower in height, but not more than few hundred pts, probab, then retry, reject, then will be dump or will outright bart dump and retry with lower high pump. I don't think is reversal, there were not enough bottom shorters who got liquidated or has liquidation point around here, since vol was very low and this launchpad wasn't based on anything, no accumulation, nothing.

To me, nothing more then pump and dump. If was key reversal, would have been lower price or already above the 5.925k, accumulating instead of breaking to newer lows... pretty self explantory.

So, this makes me believe it want to redistribute higher price, reload shorts and go lower. That being said, I think next days will probably hand around here before finishing either truncated to my target 5.5-5.65k or 5k, if break 4.8k then all hell breaks lose.

Catatan

Lol, one pump and all the traders who are in loss are already calling for new ath :-) Fact is, we made another lower low, even lower than November '17. Order books are just illiquid, the volume isn't even impressive, WAY LOWER than 6.1k v-shape reaction few weeks. Ok, if you're so bullish then buy and provide shorters with higher price liquidity, that's your choice.

Catatan

This is what I mean with a scam pump and dump, aka bart style.
Spot the differences.
ibb.co/bBUHvT
ibb.co/exEE9o

Seems like redistribution to me, nice gape up fomo buyers buying 2% premium for shorts to collect. Be careful, I think one more leg down to 5.5k, MAYBE 5k, it's not determined yet for today, I think 5k test before end of the week.

We will see if the V-shape big pump comes or not, with big, I mean 25% pump minimum. This jr lambo candle is not it, imho.

Catatan

We are still very far from the bottom my friends...
Typical behavior for market bottoms in bear markets is NOT when people become immediately bullish again after one pump..... It's when those people are removed from market and feel desperate up to a point of complete misery, they see bullrun and think it's fake again. It's the time this place becomes complete ghosttown again and almost everyone forgetting about crypto and calling it dead. We are still so far away from it... and I see it clearly from sentiment.

Catatan

My original idea still stands, forget the 5k for a while, it's NOT valid yet, first the test at 5.65k as written 10 hours ago. Why? I did some research on different exchanges and some exchanges hit the $5650... which I had as target before it happened as you can see in chart for bottom... but finex and mex again screwing up, for fourth time last few weeks. Finex mm really needs to get back to work.

So, I still think we will visit it, sooner than later, before upmove, but now can be too late with the pump which triggered on bitmex first, yet, again.

Catatan

People ask me if I buy, my answer is nope. Better to wait and short if price goes higher. The 5.5k area has not been visited and I'm not impressed with this fishy pump when I compare this pump vs recent v-shape 6.1k and v-shape 6k, regarding volume vs price %. Relative high price pump on relative low volume with 2% gap between order prices as from the market level 2, which shows illiquidity.

I think the bulls better can save money where the real tests starts, namely at 4.8-5.2k zone. If that breaks it's going to 3k. There is absolutely nothing at this place... just saying the obvious. For small bounce, it's not worth the risk of going long, other than scalping.

It will consolidate more and longer it takes the deeper the fall. Better to end this crap faster, not longer drawn out weeks of consolidations and boring markets with summer in front of us, then one big move and 2-3 weeks nothing.

Catatan

Well, I think it's going for my targets, 2 more to go for most bullish case ~5k bottom.

As you can see, the first target has been met, price + time was almost 100% correct prediction from chart made 3 weeks ago. Next target shows $5554 and $4949. Unfortunately, I don't have the layout anymore, I accidentally deleted it and I couldn't recover it, so you have to do it with static chart.

It's possible that this is the bottom (maybe capitulation wick lower, so might try to catch that as well), who knows. I personally do not think a bullrun of 3 years ends in 6 months correction, no way. Actually, the time gets longer and the reward diminished, so we cannot draw lineair extrapolation from '14, it doesn't work that way, because mcap is larger and then you deal with the law of big numbers. What I've calculated is almost 1.5x longer than 2014, so keep that in mind. I hope I'm wrong and this is not a bear market, but a deep correction from which we recover way sooner. Next to that, we cannot compare 2 events as the same, when the future is simply unknown, it's only possibilities we're talking here.

Have a great week.

Catatan

You can look for buy op for scalp/intraday trade in pullback or use that cash to defend the bulls at critical area, which I think is more wise and better RR. This $5750 is based on nothing, no SR, no fibs, nothing.

It looks like MM is reloading shorts soon, they quietly are closing on finex (but is contrary indicator), because other exchanges are not transparant in their open position interest and the moves feel very controlled. That being said, it looks like bottom is soon in for some time, that's good news, since mm is using liquidity at bottom to close positions.

People where waiting for short squeezes, but when it didn't happen first time, I figured it wouldn't happen the following 4 times as well, which was true. Shorts keep closing in profit to open later on.

Chart below roadmap coming month. If bulls can puss out of bear structure, 8k+ is possible for following month (total 2 months). I think this cycle is 2 months this time, as measured from the fall, which falls in line with summer.

Patience is virtue, I might scoop up some when it follows my chart for a scalp, but my big buys are not here. I rather miss out then getting dumped upon. There are trade ops everywhere.

Catatan

I'm expecting dump within few days. The usd charts are way more bullish than the chinese and japanese, even euro, same as for volume, while chinese + japanese 24h trades are way higher than us + eu. There is a lot of selling on fiat exchanges as well, compared to usdt, maybe that's why more tether is needed as to not spike the price up. It's not bullish guys... just saying.

Catatan

Well, nothing much to say, japan printed a big shooting star on the daily and it's about to close it this way in 25 minutes. We have bearish bars in the inside bar in on the usd and eur charts, so yeah, going on track.

Catatan

Bears are pushing support... Should bart pump as anticipated 3 hours ago to liquidate bottom shorters.

Catatan

I've closed my longs on the last wick of the last mini rally, this feels very off, not bullish at all, too much selling in the rallies and in consolidations, same for alts and upmove on very little volume.

Price does not match volume, means more supply than demand, so the longer and higher it goes, the harder the dump. If this closes above 6.75k, I have to reconsider to move my orders away from the 5k area, because we might see 4k as the bids are getting flushed out in losses or being underwater.

I've thought about this more and it seems very artificially done in weekends (just like the dumps prior). I don't know what the effect of the up and down contracts will be on bitmex Friday 29 June '18, coincidentally at the same date as last trade CME, but from experience, I can tell you that the strike prices will not be met at mex, who is the mm, at least, I haven't saw it one time, but then again, I do perps or futures only there.

Catatan

I've got a new chart (which I won't update frequently as other posts) below

King Bitcoin | Alternative view based on daily close | Long term

Catatan

Patience is virtue:
pbs.twimg.com/media/Dczb1b-VQAAY4c4.jpg

Catatan

Quick update: I've warned you about those lambo candles (instant +10% on btc) for a while now, it's the result of illiquidity (thin orderbooks) and heavy manipulation at bitmex and bitfinex. Volume was excellent there on the 4H, but look at fiat exchanges, all very low buy vol (kraken and gdax) and still more selling to fiat than tethers, confirming what I already expected, an exodus out of crypto (aka exit; Don't have to believe me, go to any investment website to see the sell signal have been given for investors to bail ship and gbtc shares are on record sells). I'm waiting for the capitulation and stop loss hunt at 5.5k and put my orders below their stops for the big swing, instead of getting trapped in a pump and dump.

Catatan

^ Reason I'm telling you guys is, is that it happened in the bear markets before as well to liquidate people on margin and take their money and most of people here are being hookline and sinked caught fish, the 99% here who're looking for a buy on retrace to get stopped out once again when it does a full retrace.

I've checked alts, still almost all tanking in btc pairs, confirming my suspicion of the nature of this pump. Scam pump like last weekend and in workdays heavy selling. Careful out there. Alessio did a youtube video of this to explaining to EXCLUDE weekends, because of the heavy price manipulators at work at the moment.

When it reaches 6.75k and closes there in weekend, then can expect sub 5k very soon (not 5k, but 3-4k in a capitulative fashion) and multi year bear market, in which case I'm out of market, because a good bullrun to 11.2-12k will not happen and bitcoin is going to find a bottom and being bought up by believers in bitcoin over a very long period of instead, instead of being traded (those who favor fiat over bitcoin), because volatility will be gone as almost all traders and price manipulators.

And yes, this needs to be said as well, because most of you also don't understand the danger of illiquidity. When the bids are gone in books and panic sells happens, this can go from 6k to 2k in minutes and good luck selling your bags when the exchanges go offline or disable withdrawal and such experiences I have had, the first experience totally in disbelief, but not anymore and it happens more than you might think.

In conclusion, it feels like an exit pump to me. Do as you wish, I'll wait for the capitulation to buy or short when it goes higher.

The expected targets are still the same in chart from few days ago, nothing changes there.

Catatan

I see everyone fomo again and calling for bullrun, so won't happen. If this was bottom, alts would have pumped hard on volume. The fact is, alts kept dumping in btc pairs and some alts has low vol buys. It's nothing like few months back. You can buy on retrace if you want, I don't trust it. I will buy and defend the bulls if this price is not going to close above 6.75k where it's needed at critical support. Patience is virtue.

Catatan

Hmm, it was an abc after all, one more big leg down I think. Confirmation when the masses are now bullish again, but things don't add up, including the alt space. Everyone being euphoric again means we have a very long way to go before the bottom is in, since they are hardheaded it will take even longer, because MM still can profit from those people...

Catatan

Weekly update:

If you don't know what I mean with exit pump, then you have to study how bubbles evolve, as to how this fundamentally works (investors and companies selling inventory at best possible price, when that fails, the dumps happen and traders in middle (which is actually now in a no trade zone) will actually help those who are exiting a failed market and usually end up losing money by being stopped out, especially with huge slippage on the dumps), since the orderbooks are very thin.

Why do you think there is a huge $300 gap in the pump like last time? There were almost no sell orders there, just load up your volume profile. Smart people selling at premium and fomo people will be big losers buying premium with premium stop loss much lower or worse, bagholding. The only winners are those who longed at 5800-5850 and the breakout on the 1 to 3 minute chart, that is, if they sold or raised sl in profit area.

This goes in line with my thoughts about alts, people are looking a way to sell their bags and you got those people (who never experienced any bubble pop/collapse) thinking they're so smart to buy bags of alts last night (Ethereum and Litecoin was an exception, but didn't pump, it's better than tanking than the rest of large-medium caps), what part of a failing market and at the edge of collapse do they not understand (is beyond me)?
So then, how did it worked out for you until now? If you read my warnings NOT to get in illiquid alts, you saved yourself some % vs bitcoin, because the alts in btc pairs kept tanking and still didn't pump at all, which proofs my point and good luck trying to sell them now when there is almost no trade volume (and yes, if you read my updates, you would have known, because I made stupid mistake a few weeks back to do the same and took most of the day to get partially filled and had to market sell the majority with slippage, because of illiquidity).

Yes, soon can buy alts imho, but not now and it won't be spectacular as last April, in fact, almost all alts will have another year bear market imho and go back to '16-'17 levels in btc pair, it's not a "steal" and I'd only trade with raising stop loss on each pump, because it seems it's only viable option to daytrade and scalp this in consistent profit, especially with whipsaw pnd algo patterns.

I don't think anybody knows with $10 accuracy where the bottom is, although many expect 5.5k, I think it's going to break to trigger all the stops there, maybe 4.8-5.2k for bounce or straight to 4k on the first or second impulse. If 4.8k and not break 11.8k afterwards, then a long time prediction since February is coming out before it's going to 3.3k and most likely lower in to undervaluation area to complete the entire bubble structure when trading is dead, once again.

Good luck, the chart will most likely complete itself, so no need for constant updates, as I'll spend less time on crypto, in fact, I barely made any trades other than a few intraday and scalp trades the last weeks. I feel confident saying for over 99% it's not going to 7k, maybe another wick $100 higher to 6.6k or already being topped out are most likely scenario's (even if this was reversal). And as said before, if daily close >= $6750 for this run, then can expect 4k on impulsive dumps and the road to sub 2k to 2k will be painful.

Catatan

Alternative count, almost same targets

Catatan

Hmm, Bitstamp made a newer low, other exchanges didn't.
Anywho, the c-leg of abc was hit 100% on the cent at stamp. If there is a micro reversal, won't go that high anyway, because the big resistance is at 6.75-6.8 and then 7.1-7.3k, but we won't go there.

The correct chart is below for stamp.

CryptoSwindle

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