Bitcoin's Momentum Is Slowing Down (BLX Chart)
Diupdate
As I'm sure you've noticed, my posts have really slowed down. I'm just focusing on other things in my life, and it's mostly been good. Some hard times very recently, but that's how it goes. I hope you are all alright and trading safely :)
Now...to Bitcoin. Volume is declining overall as less actual Bitcoin is traded. Hardly any coins have been sent to exchanges, when compared with the past. Bulls say this is a good thing, due to less supply being available, which in theory pushes up price. However, if demand is lacking overall, there is not much that can be done. Bulls therefore hope that the new ETF's provide enough demand to keep the all time highs coming.
Momentum is also slowing down, hence the longer term monthly bearish divergences in the Ultimate Oscillator.
It's interesting to note that the total crypto market cap (TOTAL) has not made a new all time high.
Unless Bitcoin can get above its curved channel, growth will continue to slow down. For bulls, the hope is that Bitcoin continues to outperform traditional markets. We'll see what happens! Above, I've provided both long term bullish and long term bearish scenarios. As for what could send Bitcoin back to 3k or lower? It would probably involve forced selling, particularly by someone like Michael Saylor.
On the weekly chart, it's possible Bitcoin is simply consolidating before the next leg up. Seller volume is declining. Unless we see a huge push down before this coming Sunday, it's very possible the recent lows are set and price will make a new all time high.
There is also room to test some lower levels based on these trendlines:
53k and
42K are major levels buyers would be defending if price drops lower.
For now, 60k is being defended. Need a more convincing bounce though, to prove the selling is over.
There are more options than that, but this is currently the way I'm looking at it. Doesn't mean I'll be right or wrong, but that's how it is! I'm trying to provide both bullish and bearish options so that my bias doesn't take over.
I'm still positioning myself short. My opinion is that Bitcoin has a critical mass, or maximum price, and that there are some signs pointing to Bitcoin's over-saturation. This includes the lack of new addresses, decrease in volume, and lack of overall interest from the everyday person. The irony is that if all of a sudden everyone started talking about Bitcoin, we'd probably be near a top. So, you may take this as a bullish argument.
Anyway, thank you for reading and for your support. This is not meant as financial advice. This is purely speculative!
Now...to Bitcoin. Volume is declining overall as less actual Bitcoin is traded. Hardly any coins have been sent to exchanges, when compared with the past. Bulls say this is a good thing, due to less supply being available, which in theory pushes up price. However, if demand is lacking overall, there is not much that can be done. Bulls therefore hope that the new ETF's provide enough demand to keep the all time highs coming.
Momentum is also slowing down, hence the longer term monthly bearish divergences in the Ultimate Oscillator.
It's interesting to note that the total crypto market cap (TOTAL) has not made a new all time high.
Unless Bitcoin can get above its curved channel, growth will continue to slow down. For bulls, the hope is that Bitcoin continues to outperform traditional markets. We'll see what happens! Above, I've provided both long term bullish and long term bearish scenarios. As for what could send Bitcoin back to 3k or lower? It would probably involve forced selling, particularly by someone like Michael Saylor.
On the weekly chart, it's possible Bitcoin is simply consolidating before the next leg up. Seller volume is declining. Unless we see a huge push down before this coming Sunday, it's very possible the recent lows are set and price will make a new all time high.
There is also room to test some lower levels based on these trendlines:
53k and
42K are major levels buyers would be defending if price drops lower. For now, 60k is being defended. Need a more convincing bounce though, to prove the selling is over.
There are more options than that, but this is currently the way I'm looking at it. Doesn't mean I'll be right or wrong, but that's how it is! I'm trying to provide both bullish and bearish options so that my bias doesn't take over.
I'm still positioning myself short. My opinion is that Bitcoin has a critical mass, or maximum price, and that there are some signs pointing to Bitcoin's over-saturation. This includes the lack of new addresses, decrease in volume, and lack of overall interest from the everyday person. The irony is that if all of a sudden everyone started talking about Bitcoin, we'd probably be near a top. So, you may take this as a bullish argument.
Anyway, thank you for reading and for your support. This is not meant as financial advice. This is purely speculative!
Catatan
Bitcoin will probably need to bounce around here in order to continue its recent bullish trend. Otherwise, I think it can reach some surprisingly low levels. This is just based on the long term structure. Keep in mind the delay between the BLX and regular BTC charts. That trendline stretches back to 2015.
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