BLMN - Dec 24 100SMA StrongWeak Bounce

10 Des 2024

BLMN

• Sector: Restaurants
  
• Falling revenue and EPS
  
• Nov Bloomin' Brands is selling 67% of its Brazilian business to focus on the struggling U.S. market, facing strong competition and declining sales.
  The sale to Vinci Partners will simplify operations and provide funds for necessary U.S. restaurant remodels and menu simplifications.
  
• Outback Steakhouse is under performing vs it’s peers in an already tough consumer market.
  
• ADR 2.77%
  
• Short Interest 9.72%
  
• Is it a Hype Thematic: Thematic on consumer spend
  
• Insider wise, we are seeing options being executed at higher prices vs current price. CFO’s recent exercised option was at $13.94
  

• 100SMA StrongWeak Bounce 🏀 (0.5R) v1.0
• Trading risk at 0.5R as we are testing this strategy
  
• This trade model is based on us riding the 100SMA trend waves of the strongest and weakest companies. It only executes well when greater force (RUT & SPX) is trending. Entries are at greater force key levels when it is consolidating. When greater force is taking off it is too late.
  
• Entry
  
• Within Stdev 100 zone
  
• SL = ATR14 * 2 (Run full course no early exits)
  
• Trailing stop (Previous Day Low or high)
  
• Price launch off (D1)
  
• D2 Closes
  
• D3 Move SL to D2 Low
  

11 Des 2024

Trading ditutup secara manual

BLMN Update: The position unexpectedly reversed with conflicting price action. I decided to close it at a loss of $25.
Redeployment: The risk savings of $49 were reallocated into ASPN ($24.5) and CE ($24.5), both of which exhibit better price action among our current four positions.

I'm now focusing on managing my trades as a portfolio, which helps me avoid fixating on individual trades and instead evaluate how each one contributes to achieving my broader objectives.