PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 02 DEC 2022
Relatively a quieter day with no major swings. The opening was a deep gap down at 42976 and we had a green first candle. Approx 142pts recovered in the opening 5mts.
Ideally bank nifty has to be compared with Nifty50 to get some relativity. Bank nifty was more stable than Nifty today - Nifty kept on dropping till 12.35 before it got support and had a minor pull back. Bank nifty on the other hand had a neutral kind of day - the final close was above the day's open.
BN did have a similar selling pattern as nifty50 - but the slope of selling was not that impactful - The pull that followed after 12.35 was much stronger and helped BN close above 43100.
If we summarize the day the entire range of the day was well within the opening candle. Now thats quite interesting because we may have change in macros coming up by next week & the usual profit bookings by the FIIs as its December. Will they hold onto gains or take some profit and move to cash ?
The put option prices did not show any anomaly today - the jumps in premiums were quite normal indicating that put writers had expected the markets not to fall that much today. Also the implied volatility did not spike much - even the India VIX did not spike even when nifty50 fell 1.3% from HOD to LOD.
As it stands i am not feeling inclined to add onto any equity positions at present. Not just that they are at all time highs - they are just at insanely high valuations without a change in fundamentals.
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Banknity components chart now changed to 10mts TF to show a glimpse of the previous day's price action too
HDFC bank was continuing the selling momentum from yesterday - but today's price moves flat with no positive bias
ICICI Bank also continued from yesterday's trend, had a similar chart like HDFC but the cuts were quite deeper
SBI on the other hand did recover to the flat line and almost showing an positive bias.
AXIS was the on bank to dip after the gap down, support came in at 10.15 and the pattern from there was bullish. 14.55 price move ensured it went through the flat line with momentum.
Kotak had a gap down and then slowly built its way back to the flat line.
IndusInd is again jumping up and down - are the investors pricing in some news or event? Final close as in positive territory.
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We have a contradictory chart in 15mts Vs 1hr TF - because 15mts is looking bearish now whereas there is no signal in the 1hr chart.
1D vs 1W TFs are too early to catch any trend reversal without appearing on the 1hr first. So we need to wait for 2 to 3 days before it can show up.
Frankly unbelievable rally by bank nifty, secondly sending my wishes to all the bulls who had the conviction to allow it to rally so much. I am no bull nor bear here. Would prefer to stay out of equity other than with a trading interest.
Ideally bank nifty has to be compared with Nifty50 to get some relativity. Bank nifty was more stable than Nifty today - Nifty kept on dropping till 12.35 before it got support and had a minor pull back. Bank nifty on the other hand had a neutral kind of day - the final close was above the day's open.
BN did have a similar selling pattern as nifty50 - but the slope of selling was not that impactful - The pull that followed after 12.35 was much stronger and helped BN close above 43100.
If we summarize the day the entire range of the day was well within the opening candle. Now thats quite interesting because we may have change in macros coming up by next week & the usual profit bookings by the FIIs as its December. Will they hold onto gains or take some profit and move to cash ?
The put option prices did not show any anomaly today - the jumps in premiums were quite normal indicating that put writers had expected the markets not to fall that much today. Also the implied volatility did not spike much - even the India VIX did not spike even when nifty50 fell 1.3% from HOD to LOD.
As it stands i am not feeling inclined to add onto any equity positions at present. Not just that they are at all time highs - they are just at insanely high valuations without a change in fundamentals.
---
Banknity components chart now changed to 10mts TF to show a glimpse of the previous day's price action too
HDFC bank was continuing the selling momentum from yesterday - but today's price moves flat with no positive bias
ICICI Bank also continued from yesterday's trend, had a similar chart like HDFC but the cuts were quite deeper
SBI on the other hand did recover to the flat line and almost showing an positive bias.
AXIS was the on bank to dip after the gap down, support came in at 10.15 and the pattern from there was bullish. 14.55 price move ensured it went through the flat line with momentum.
Kotak had a gap down and then slowly built its way back to the flat line.
IndusInd is again jumping up and down - are the investors pricing in some news or event? Final close as in positive territory.
---
We have a contradictory chart in 15mts Vs 1hr TF - because 15mts is looking bearish now whereas there is no signal in the 1hr chart.
1D vs 1W TFs are too early to catch any trend reversal without appearing on the 1hr first. So we need to wait for 2 to 3 days before it can show up.
Frankly unbelievable rally by bank nifty, secondly sending my wishes to all the bulls who had the conviction to allow it to rally so much. I am no bull nor bear here. Would prefer to stay out of equity other than with a trading interest.
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