Bajaj Finance - Short Target 5700

2 Jun 2023

Stock is making triangle as part of cycle wave correction. Though will not achieve its desired target down, expected to fall to 5700 in about 47 days (CMP 7027, -18.8% fall).

Swing traders will make it find support at 6536, which could be weak as that level was shortlived. Swing traders may also target 50% retracement of the current wave down to 6321 (-10% fall).

If this wave becomes wave 2 of primary movement upwards, then it should fall to 6138 (-13% fall) following 61.8% retracement rule of wave 1.

This current wave, demostrated all the powerful properties of wave C, and terminated with a perfectly making ending diagonal, making it an aptly fit candidate for the horizontal triangle, being the base theory.

Turbulence areas - 5800 levels being a demand zone.

I am targeting short to 5700 levels in about 47 days.


Disclaimer :
The views hereinabove are my personal views, for the sole objective of seeking comments from community on the analysis. Notwithstanding above, it should not be construed as any guidance, advice or offer to enter into any transaction or investment by the reader. The readers must consult their independent financial advisors before initiating or otherwise dealing with the security mentioned herein, without relying on the contents herein. The author shall not be responsible or liable, whether directly or indirectly, for any losses, pecuniary or otherwise, arising from the use of above analysis or information, whether to the reader hereof or any third party.

5 Jun 2023

Trade aktif

While the 50 day target remains intact, short to levels mentioned above, i am making a small rectification, only very short term impact. The current movement upwards has not ended yet, the diagonal formed marked end of wave 3 (not wave 5). The current wave is wave 4, which should retrace anywhere from 6965 to 6784 (CMP 7024) i.e. fall of Rs. 60 to Rs. ... then in wave 5 the stock may hit 7295 before sliding downwards to levels of 5700.

current wave structure was very complex.

5 Jun 2023

Catatan

Completed a triangle in wave 4, should progress to achive wave 5, with Rs. 100 gain from 7040, post triangle thrust, after which the downward slide should begin. Current wave volume, during intraday, is superior to other wave volumes in either dirction.

Target for tomorrow 7140 to 7170.

6 Jun 2023

Catatan

Today it achieved 7132 high, little short of its target of 7169, constrained by weekly R1. 7169 is the confluence of many factors - touching local channel, kissing the larger channel where final wave 5 has been a laggard so far, end of many wave 5s - from Minor to miniscule, and the equality of time magnitude. Given than the previous bull run has been extremely strong, it might overshoot its channel to go on to achieve 7235 or 7295. This will mark the end of strong bull movement that began from Rs. 5787 levels.

Now whether this marks end of wave D of the primary triangle, or marks the end of wave (3) of Wave 3, the retracement post this advance should begin, and should be atleast 6543, being a strong demand zone and previous swing high to act as support, while it will face multiple level of resistances below this to achieve its target of 5700 level if the triangle theory remains valid.

Tomorrow's target - 7169. Overall target seems to be achievable by Thu, 8th June noon. Next week onwards should be bearish for the counter. Individual market structure volumes, wave volumes, macd etc. all indicate bulls running out of steam. End of the day, market is king, it does what it does.

7 Jun 2023

Trade aktif

Yesterday's sluggish bulls indicated something, and news came today that NBFCs growth in Q4 vs. Q4 last year, was sharply lower. The stock showed bearish pressure today, maybe the corrective journey has started.

Short targets intact - first target 6500 levels.

19 Jun 2023

Catatan

Wave structure is becoming more and more complex and confusing. The current uptrend is going very strong with high momentum. Will update soon when I am convinced on wave structures, as of now, not closing shorts.

17 Jul 2023

Trading ditutup: stop tercapai

I have to confess, in the first place, when I initiated this trade, I made a premature conclusion of a triangle, which basis the rules of analysis, did not permit. Later, when I realized that it could possibly be wave 3 of minor 1, while still believing in triangle (irrational expectation), I waited for adequate retracement, which never happened.

Now it appears that it has completed first minor wave of primary 1, of cycle 5 and moving towards comleting wave A / making wave B of its correction suggesting down to maximum of 6500.

I have gone horribly wrong on this one, booked massive loss on capital (I was long put options).

Event though the uptrend is very strong on this counter, I will penalise myself by not opening any position in this counter.

A lesson learned at too heavy a cost!