Fibonacci Retracement on AUD/USD
50% retracement in this downtrend, based on the current month's high and low to establish the trend. Looking to short around now and set take profit level of 0.69670. You'll notice my fib retracement is reversed to show extension levels, so the 61.8% retracement is at 0.71638. A clean break above that level would stop out this trade for me and I would reconsider a more macro reversal unfolding.
Price has fully pulled back to EMA100 as well, which is a strong resistance level. It appears to be holding along with the above fib analysis.
The price consolidation over the past week is causing a rising wedge to form too, just didn't want to clutter the chart with too many lines.
Australian employment change and unemployment rate to be reported at 8:30PM EST on 10/17, with expectations similar to prior period. With light AUD related reporting this week, the move would likely be powered by USD strength. Much more news in the remainder of this week regarding USD, such as: FOMC meeting and members speaking, crude, treasury, and manufacturing. Thanks to Forex Factory for the ease in obtaining this information. Any bullish surprises or changes in estimates in these USD related reports will definitely help.
Price has fully pulled back to EMA100 as well, which is a strong resistance level. It appears to be holding along with the above fib analysis.
The price consolidation over the past week is causing a rising wedge to form too, just didn't want to clutter the chart with too many lines.
Australian employment change and unemployment rate to be reported at 8:30PM EST on 10/17, with expectations similar to prior period. With light AUD related reporting this week, the move would likely be powered by USD strength. Much more news in the remainder of this week regarding USD, such as: FOMC meeting and members speaking, crude, treasury, and manufacturing. Thanks to Forex Factory for the ease in obtaining this information. Any bullish surprises or changes in estimates in these USD related reports will definitely help.
Catatan
Seeing weakness in USD index, notably at 1-2 year support levels across some major pairs. Reduce lot size on this trade to 1/3 the average lot used.Catatan
Backing out remaining portion of this trade for slight gain. Too much USD neutral / weak behavior and the key support level from January 2016 at 0.71 is holding too well. Will reconsider shorting here if price goes sub-0.71 again. Until then, looking for opportunities elsewhere.Catatan
DXY back to full strength. See my fib analysis on DXY for insight into why taking long USD trades for the next few months is a very good idea.Catatan
5-1-0, trade closed on October 21 for slight gain
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Pernyataan Penyangkalan
Informasi dan publikasi tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan bukan merupakan saran keuangan, investasi, perdagangan, atau rekomendasi lainnya yang diberikan atau didukung oleh TradingView. Baca selengkapnya di Persyaratan Penggunaan.